MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 1Garrett Mitchell
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.349wOBA vs RHP.357xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .376 vs league .369 (about even).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .289 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .352 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .316 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .373 vs league .365 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .322 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Garrett Mitchell: wOBA .343 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Garrett Mitchell's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Garrett Mitchell's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 76.6 mph at -38°Out: 105.6 mph at 14°Out: 105.1 mph at -9°Out: 33.6 mph at -37°Single: 103.1 mph at 5°Single: 87.3 mph at 14°Out: 101.8 mph at 2°Out: 67.1 mph at -46°Out: 63.7 mph at -66°Out: 99.2 mph at 21°Single: 58.0 mph at 35°Single: 109.4 mph at 6°Out: 87.0 mph at 4°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 76.3 mph at -24°Out: 93.9 mph at -8°Out: 38.0 mph at -23°Double: 109.6 mph at 17°Out: 94.6 mph at -21°Double: 105.6 mph at 9°Single: 104.9 mph at 5°Single: 86.4 mph at 7°Double: 100.3 mph at 20°Home run: 108.1 mph at 33°Out: 82.1 mph at 72°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Single: 102.6 mph at -2°Out: 88.8 mph at -6°Out: 90.9 mph at 19°Single: 110.5 mph at 2°Out: 89.7 mph at 7°Out: 67.5 mph at -54°Out: 106.9 mph at 13°Single: 111.0 mph at 9°Out: 101.8 mph at 6°Single: 105.4 mph at 11°Triple: 109.2 mph at 21°Out: 96.2 mph at -3°Out: 105.4 mph at -26°Out: 98.8 mph at -6°
57% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.8%57.0%+3.7
2+ total bases37.0%33.9%+3.1
Home run12.4%10.9%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Garrett Mitchell hits
Garrett Mitchell · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .108 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.208xwOBA .479 shrunk (raw .775 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.479xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .376 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.305xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .296 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.316xwOBA .486 shrunk (raw .538 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 44 pitches seen.486xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .480 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.414xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .303 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.305xwOBA .392 shrunk (raw .420 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 48 pitches seen.392xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .481 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.400xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .273 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 111 pitches seen.325xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .346 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 78 pitches seen.310xwOBA .195 shrunk (raw .161 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 129 pitches seen.195xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .297 on 30 PA) · league .274 · 141 pitches seen.290
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 43% of 21 swings · league 22%43%Whiff 31% of 32 swings · league 20%31%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 18% of 34 swings · league 10%18%Whiff 0% of 33 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 33% of 24 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 23% of 31 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 33% of 21 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 65% of 20 swings · league 28%65%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 52% of 48 swings · league 32%52%Whiff 60% of 37 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 37 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 84% of 38 pitches · league 72%84%Swings at 71% of 24 pitches · league 66%71%Swings at 76% of 45 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 75% of 44 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 70% of 43 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 69% of 35 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 65% of 48 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 55% of 38 pitches · league 60%55%Swings at 18% of 111 pitches · league 24%18%Swings at 28% of 78 pitches · league 34%28%Swings at 37% of 129 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 26% of 141 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 811 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Garrett Mitchell against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.376.36920.8%14.5%69About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.289.28241.5%28.2%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.352.34422.3%15.3%43About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.316.30837.0%29.4%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.373.36528.7%20.3%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.322.31430.9%23.9%12About league average vs these
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.343.33536.0%28.5%22About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Garrett Mitchell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.211.250.211.226.29040.0%5.0%35.5%89.5109.40.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1343.300.349.525.409.39332.6%7.0%31.9%93.9110.512.0%52.0%36.0%
Last 30 G2475.357.400.557.445.39630.7%5.3%31.5%94.7112.38.7%58.7%37.0%
90 days63207.274.348.419.354.36730.4%9.2%31.9%93.9112.310.0%55.8%35.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 26%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.450.7430.0%0.0%20.0%67.5105.10.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G919.143.294.143.294.36731.6%10.5%25.0%82.2111.00.0%50.0%10.0%
Last 30 G1836.200.294.300.306.38225.0%8.3%26.8%90.7111.04.3%56.5%13.0%
90 days3867.273.385.418.376.40623.9%11.9%26.7%90.5111.07.3%56.1%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 68%Line drive 22%Fly ball 7%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.190.227.190.248.33334.8%4.3%33.3%84.4109.40.0%46.2%23.1%
Last 15 G1562.259.333.426.375.38532.3%8.1%29.7%90.5111.08.6%51.4%28.6%
Last 30 G30111.310.367.480.401.39228.8%6.3%30.1%93.3112.37.2%58.0%29.0%
90 days72274.274.357.419.359.37628.8%9.9%30.8%93.0112.39.3%55.9%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 161 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 25%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 4%
Garrett Mitchell · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .369running 17 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.576.6-38.121Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup87.8105.614.740Out
Sep 25LHPSlider84.8105.1-9.314Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper77.833.6-37–Sac bunt
Sep 25RHPFastball92.3103.15.558Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup89.387.314.864Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.0101.82.515Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.167.1-46.263Force out
Sep 23LHPSlider86.563.7-66.272Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.899.221.409Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.858.035.252Single
Sep 20RHPFastball92.9109.46.648Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511000
Sep 24511004
Sep 23400001
Sep 22411002
Sep 20511011
Sep 19400012
Sep 18500002
Sep 17212001
Sep 15512011
Sep 13200011

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Garrett Mitchell bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Garrett Mitchell with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.3%41.0%
Whiff%25.8%21.3%
Contact%74.2%78.7%
Chase%33.3%39.6%
wOBA.233.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.1%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.331
K%28.9%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%13.2%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV92.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

205 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.357against pitches like his
RV/1000.30
Hard-hit%31.6%
K%29.8%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Garrett Mitchell: every projection we've made →