MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 4Jake Bauers
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.364wOBA vs RHP.376xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .382 vs league .369 (about even).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .294 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .357 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .320 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .378 vs league .365 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .326 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Jake Bauers: wOBA .348 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Bauers's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Bauers's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 62.8 mph at 11°Out: 82.7 mph at 29°Out: 89.4 mph at 25°Out: 79.3 mph at -18°Single: 104.1 mph at -8°Double: 97.1 mph at 28°Out: 93.3 mph at 30°Single: 80.2 mph at 6°Out: 75.4 mph at -11°Double: 105.7 mph at 19°Out: 66.9 mph at -14°Double: 104.2 mph at 21°Single: 90.9 mph at 16°Out: 67.4 mph at 50°Home run: 108.1 mph at 21°Out: 72.0 mph at 22°Out: 97.6 mph at 36°Single: 71.4 mph at 29°Out: 78.9 mph at 6°Home run: 109.8 mph at 22°Single: 102.4 mph at 16°Out: 96.1 mph at 64°Out: 89.3 mph at 5°Out: 90.7 mph at 25°Home run: 109.8 mph at 26°Out: 77.4 mph at 78°Out: 102.0 mph at 45°Single: 102.1 mph at 0°Out: 86.0 mph at 7°Out: 90.1 mph at 26°Out: 95.2 mph at 5°Out: 59.1 mph at 44°Out: 92.9 mph at -13°Single: 103.0 mph at 7°Single: 110.1 mph at 6°Out: 97.0 mph at 59°Single: 95.1 mph at 17°Single: 67.3 mph at 26°Out: 97.4 mph at 44°Out: 89.8 mph at -4°
45% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.6%58.9%+4.7
2+ total bases39.6%35.5%+4.0
Home run16.9%14.5%+2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.5
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.9
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake Bauers hits
Jake Bauers · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .210 shrunk (raw .115 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.210xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .539 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 29 pitches seen.406xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .282 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.269xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .325 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.335xwOBA .393 shrunk (raw .396 on 26 PA) · league .386 · 67 pitches seen.393xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .413 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 40 pitches seen.372xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .436 on 16 PA) · league .308 · 43 pitches seen.381xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .499 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 39 pitches seen.431xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .372 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 39 pitches seen.334xwOBA .420 shrunk (raw .449 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 136 pitches seen.420xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .533 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 51 pitches seen.378xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .327 on 24 PA) · league .263 · 124 pitches seen.306xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .284 on 37 PA) · league .274 · 185 pitches seen.282
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 22%42%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 20%39%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 8% of 53 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 3% of 29 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 13%28%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 77% of 13 swings · league 28%77%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 24%38%Whiff 61% of 28 swings · league 32%61%Whiff 74% of 49 swings · league 49%74%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 44% of 27 pitches · league 62%44%Swings at 62% of 29 pitches · league 72%62%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 48% of 50 pitches · league 70%48%Swings at 79% of 67 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 73% of 40 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 61% of 43 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 64% of 39 pitches · league 68%64%Swings at 54% of 39 pitches · league 60%54%Swings at 10% of 136 pitches · league 24%10%Swings at 31% of 51 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 23% of 124 pitches · league 40%23%Swings at 27% of 185 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 853 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Bauers against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.382.36921.1%14.5%58About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.294.28238.5%28.2%19About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.357.34422.0%15.3%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.320.30844.2%29.4%16About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.378.36528.9%20.3%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.326.31437.4%23.9%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.348.33542.9%28.5%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Bauers · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.188.263.250.234.16252.6%10.5%39.0%84.8105.714.3%14.3%71.4%
Last 15 G1443.250.419.406.372.35841.9%23.3%37.5%87.5109.820.0%26.7%73.3%
Last 30 G2881.237.432.339.364.36538.3%25.9%39.1%91.8110.110.3%48.3%51.7%
90 days67204.258.397.405.364.37931.4%19.1%33.1%92.4114.811.0%52.0%47.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 100 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 30%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.6671.000.717.2500.0%0.0%25.0%92.2104.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G815.286.333.786.457.36220.0%6.7%33.3%90.1109.818.2%54.5%36.4%
Last 30 G1841.242.390.636.439.39826.8%17.1%28.9%87.5109.819.0%47.6%47.6%
90 days4085.294.424.647.451.39521.2%17.6%23.8%89.2111.116.0%44.0%46.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 20%Fly ball 42%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.263.318.368.300.17445.5%9.1%37.8%87.0105.710.0%30.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1558.261.397.522.394.35936.2%19.0%36.5%88.6109.819.2%38.5%57.7%
Last 30 G30122.239.418.446.388.37634.4%23.0%35.4%90.0110.114.0%48.0%50.0%
90 days71289.268.405.476.390.38328.4%18.7%30.1%91.3114.812.7%49.3%46.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 27%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
Jake Bauers · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches40trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.389 / .394results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.362.811.154Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.182.729.089Out
Sep 25RHPCutter93.489.425.087Sac fly
Sep 24RHPCurveball79.779.3-18.047Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.4104.1-8.301Single
Sep 24LHPSlider88.897.128.399Double
Sep 23RHPFastball91.493.330.189Out
Sep 22RHPCutter90.780.26.272Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.475.4-11.050Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker96.5105.719.835Double
Sep 18LHPSinker95.466.9-14.050Out
Sep 16RHPSinker99.1104.221.954Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511002
Sep 24523002
Sep 23400003
Sep 22411003
Sep 20412020
Sep 18300011
Sep 16512022
Sep 15411002
Sep 13414101
Sep 12511012

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Jake Bauers bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Bauers with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.1%41.0%
Whiff%31.5%21.3%
Contact%68.5%78.7%
Chase%36.1%39.6%
wOBA.240.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes31.8%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.372
K%28.0%
BB%17.9%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

200 PA
wOBA.364
xwOBA vs this mix.376against pitches like his
RV/1000.66
Hard-hit%26.0%
K%30.3%
BB%18.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Bauers: every projection we've made →