MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 4Alec Bohm
Bats rightTalent grade APowerHot
.318wOBA vs RHP.342xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .344 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .329 vs league .331 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .320 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .282 vs league .284 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alec Bohm's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alec Bohm's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.0 mph at -2°Out: 95.0 mph at -8°Out: 90.8 mph at -31°Out: 98.9 mph at 20°Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Out: 93.5 mph at 37°Single: 86.4 mph at 7°Out: 104.0 mph at -9°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 94.1 mph at 46°Out: 95.1 mph at -39°Double: 105.3 mph at 15°Single: 97.4 mph at 14°Out: 51.9 mph at -59°Single: 102.3 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at 8°Out: 98.2 mph at 30°Single: 103.8 mph at 3°Single: 106.4 mph at 8°Out: 104.0 mph at 7°Out: 70.3 mph at 48°Out: 102.4 mph at 25°Out: 75.8 mph at 5°Single: 81.3 mph at -44°Out: 92.3 mph at 31°Out: 81.5 mph at 25°Out: 91.3 mph at -20°Single: 91.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.5 mph at 12°Single: 104.0 mph at 6°Out: 92.3 mph at -12°Out: 59.1 mph at -45°Out: 96.0 mph at 24°Out: 83.8 mph at 32°Out: 98.2 mph at -30°Single: 105.4 mph at 14°Double: 103.0 mph at 22°Single: 106.8 mph at 3°Single: 104.9 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at 7°
50% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.3%69.0%+0.3
2+ total bases41.3%40.7%+0.6
Home run11.5%10.7%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Alec Bohm hits
Alec Bohm · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .240 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.259xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .386 on 16 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.352xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .232 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.250xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .309 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 46 pitches seen.324xwOBA .492 shrunk (raw .555 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 59 pitches seen.492xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .288 on 21 PA) · league .321 · 51 pitches seen.300xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .247 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.276xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .391 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 44 pitches seen.375xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .295 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 53 pitches seen.294xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .461 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 116 pitches seen.433xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .357 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 69 pitches seen.312xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .318 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 79 pitches seen.297xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .226 on 30 PA) · league .274 · 205 pitches seen.240
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 22%4%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 20%7%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 19%24%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 14% of 43 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 11%16%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 13%4%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 18% of 44 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 32%13%Whiff 48% of 46 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 62%78%Swings at 83% of 36 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 68% of 31 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 74% of 46 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 73% of 59 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 63% of 51 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 54% of 35 pitches · league 65%54%Swings at 61% of 44 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 57% of 53 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 38% of 116 pitches · league 24%38%Swings at 25% of 69 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 41% of 79 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 22% of 205 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Alec Bohm against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.344.34615.8%19.8%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.329.33116.0%22.5%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.320.32320.3%27.7%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.282.28422.9%30.6%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alec Bohm · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.214.227.30813.3%6.7%20.0%90.1104.08.3%58.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1541.250.341.306.300.31414.6%12.2%14.1%90.7106.83.3%50.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2978.209.321.284.283.30719.2%12.8%17.0%89.9106.83.8%46.2%36.5%
90 days71221.238.330.352.308.34116.3%10.0%16.6%91.0107.46.3%46.8%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.500.508.33216.7%0.0%18.2%97.0105.70.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1122.400.455.500.464.5054.5%9.1%9.7%93.4106.410.5%52.6%47.4%
Last 30 G2047.395.447.558.457.4658.5%8.5%16.9%92.5107.710.3%53.8%43.6%
90 days4087.390.425.598.452.4428.0%4.6%14.2%93.3109.49.3%50.7%45.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 35%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.286.300.307.31514.3%4.8%19.4%92.1105.75.9%52.9%35.3%
Last 15 G1563.304.381.375.357.38111.1%11.1%12.6%91.7106.86.1%51.0%38.8%
Last 30 G30125.282.368.391.348.36615.2%11.2%17.0%91.0107.76.6%49.5%39.6%
90 days73308.284.357.425.349.37014.0%8.4%16.0%91.7109.47.3%48.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 233 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 4%
Alec Bohm · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.356 / .384running 29 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.684.0-2.135Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball81.495.0-8.199Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.190.8-31.068Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.898.920.401Out
Sep 24LHPSinker97.2105.7-5.343Error
Sep 24LHPFastball94.393.537.111Out
Sep 23RHPCutter86.986.47.388Single
Sep 23RHPSinker100.2104.0-9.277Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.686.513.823Single
Sep 22LHPSinker91.494.146.003Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.795.1-39.065Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.5105.315.712Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24400011
Sep 23411002
Sep 22423000
Sep 20522000
Sep 19422011
Sep 18400000
Sep 17411000
Sep 16522030
Sep 15411010

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Alec Bohm bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alec Bohm with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.5%42.4%
Whiff%19.0%22.2%
Contact%81.0%77.8%
Chase%39.5%39.9%
wOBA.238.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.4%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.348
K%14.8%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%8.0%
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%35.6%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.318
xwOBA vs this mix.342against pitches like his
RV/100-0.17
Hard-hit%32.8%
K%17.0%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alec Bohm: every projection we've made →