TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026

The game

TB runs3.3win 39%

PHI runs4.4win 61%

Total7.7no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning51%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +0.7% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 104 · HR 109 100 = average
Umpire: Cory Blaser
Schedule: TB traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

TB starter

Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI

4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings

Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.8%

BB%8.1%

Whiff%11.4%

Velo89.6

BTB Stuff107

Location103

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball53%12694.79.7%

Changeup24%8887.312.5%

Curveball13%6979.113.4%

Sweeper8%10182.514.2%

Slider1%7882.911.1%

Offspeed1%–73.928.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	97	26%	12%	9%	.290
Sep 13	86	22%	9%	6%	.117
Sep 8	92	8%	4%	50%	.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Kyle Schwarber31%

2Trea Turner22%

3Bryce Harper20%

4Alec Bohm17%

5Bryson Stott16%

6Brandon Marsh22%

7Bryan De La Cruz22%

8Justin Crawford14%

9J.T. Realmuto24%

10Edmundo Sosa22%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

PHI starter

Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB

5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings

Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%24.7%

BB%6.0%

Whiff%14.2%

Velo90.6

BTB Stuff118

Location99

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker46%12194.94.6%

Changeup35%12087.323.4%

Slider19%10986.620.7%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	98	24%	10%	48%	.260
Sep 15	98	19%	11%	30%	.466
Sep 9	81	12%	6%	35%	.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Yandy Díaz11%

2Jonathan Aranda27%

3Junior Caminero15%

4Ryan Vilade25%

5Jonny DeLuca23%

6Chandler Simpson9%

7Cedric Mullins22%

8Ben Williamson20%

9Nick Fortes16%

10Jorge Mateo25%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineuppitch-mix battle

Cristopher Sánchez's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Cristopher Sánchez's pitches					TB lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sinker	46%	94.9	121	4.6%	-0.17	.315	3.5%	27.1%	+0.24
Changeup	35%	87.3	120	23.4%	-0.74	.338	15.0%	22.6%	+0.59
Slider	19%	86.6	109	20.7%	0.52	.302	14.2%	17.6%	-0.27

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineuppitch-mix battle

Freddy Peralta's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Freddy Peralta's pitches					PHI lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	53%	94.7	126	9.7%	-0.67	.351	8.5%	29.5%	+1.61
Changeup	24%	87.3	88	12.5%	1.33	.280	12.5%	18.8%	-0.80
Curveball	13%	79.1	69	13.4%	2.16	.325	13.3%	21.6%	-0.20
Sweeper	8%	82.5	101	14.2%	-2.40	.265	12.9%	25.4%	-0.09

Bullpens

Rays bullpen#10 of 30

K%23.3%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.5%

SwStr%11.4%

wOBA allowed.297

Arms available17 / 19

Pitched yesterday: Seymour, Woodford, Matz (Back-to-Back), Hopkins (Back-to-Back).

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Phillies bullpen#18 of 30

K%23.2%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%15.4%

SwStr%10.8%

wOBA allowed.363

Arms available15 / 15

Pitched yesterday: Painter, McFarlane, Alvarado, Mayza, Shugart.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-6 pts

Changeup+3 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Sweeper+2 pts

Offspeed+1 pts

Slider+0 pts

Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	53%	48%	13.9%	15.0%	18.0%
Changeup	24%	27%	25.9%	16.0%	18.6%
Curveball	13%	13%	23.5%	19.6%	20.0%
Sweeper	8%	10%	29.2%	17.9%	19.3%
Offspeed	1%	2%	40.0%	28.6%	13.1%
Slider	1%	1%	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+5 pts

Sinker-14 pts

Slider+9 pts

Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	35%	40%	37.2%	24.8%	18.3%
Sinker	46%	32%	8.8%	18.6%	17.7%
Slider	19%	28%	34.7%	26.8%	21.6%

Rays lineup

Confirmed · facing Cristopher Sánchez LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Yandy Díaz DH · bats R	67.4%	39.8%	11.2%	4.0	-0.6	.317	A	Power	Cold
2	Jonathan Aranda 1B · bats L	64.9%	37.4%	11.2%	3.9	-1.1	.294	A	Power	Cold
3	Junior Caminero 3B · bats R	68.5%	44.8%	19.2%	3.8	+1.4	.406	A	Power	Cold
4	Ryan Vilade LF · bats R	58.3%	35.6%	12.7%	3.8	+1.8	.379	C	Balanced	Cold
5	Jonny DeLuca RF · bats R	59.1%	29.5%	6.2%	3.7	-0.7	.285	F	Balanced	Normal
6	Chandler Simpson LF · bats L	66.1%	29.4%	1.0%	3.6	+0.4	.366	F	Balanced	Hot
7	Cedric Mullins CF · bats L	52.2%	26.1%	7.3%	3.5	-1.1	.269	F	Balanced	Normal
8	Ben Williamson 2B · bats R	57.1%	26.9%	4.5%	3.4	-1.1	.274	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Nick Fortes C · bats R	56.2%	27.9%	6.9%	3.3	+0.2	.340	F	Balanced	Hot
10	Jorge Mateo SS · bats R	48.6%	24.3%	6.8%	3.6	-0.6	.242	F	Balanced	Cold

Phillies lineup

Confirmed · facing Freddy Peralta RHP