Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryan De La Cruz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 57.9% | 57.6% | +0.4 |
| 2+ total bases | 30.8% | 30.2% | +0.5 |
| Home run | 8.8% | 8.1% | +0.6 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Bryan De La Cruz against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 53% | 94.5 | +7″ / +17″ | .353 | .346 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 8 | Little history vs this shape |
| Changeup | 24% | 87.3 | +17″ / +4″ | .337 | .331 | 22.4% | 22.5% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
| Curveball | 13% | 79.2 | -4″ / -4″ | .329 | .323 | 24.9% | 27.7% | 4 | Little history vs this shape |
| Sweeper | 8% | 82.4 | -10″ / +6″ | .291 | .284 | 27.8% | 30.6% | 8 | About league average vs these |
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 53% | 48% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 18.0% |
| Changeup | 24% | 27% | 25.9% | 16.0% | 18.6% |
| Curveball | 13% | 13% | 23.5% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| Sweeper | 8% | 10% | 29.2% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| Offspeed | 1% | 2% | 40.0% | 28.6% | 13.1% |
| Slider | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.1% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 44.0% | 42.4% |
| Whiff% | 22.6% | 22.2% |
| Contact% | 77.4% | 77.8% |
| Chase% | 41.8% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .238 | .237 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 22.0% | 21.5% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst right-handers, last 90 days
40 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 97 | 26% | 12% | 9% | .290 |
| Sep 13 | 86 | 22% | 9% | 6% | .117 |
| Sep 8 | 92 | 8% | 4% | 50% | .217 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.