MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 3Bryce Harper
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedCold
.399wOBA vs RHP.389xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .379 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .331 vs league .302 (hitter's edge).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .373 vs league .344 (hitter's edge).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Bryce Harper: wOBA .360 vs league .331 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryce Harper's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryce Harper's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 65.9 mph at 29°Single: 92.6 mph at 8°Out: 72.4 mph at 50°Out: 87.2 mph at -23°Single: 98.7 mph at 11°Out: 83.3 mph at 61°Out: 77.7 mph at 60°Out: 95.9 mph at -11°Out: 88.6 mph at 2°Out: 85.7 mph at 27°Out: 97.0 mph at -23°Out: 95.3 mph at 28°Out: 35.5 mph at -69°Single: 93.2 mph at 1°Out: 75.0 mph at -1°Out: 107.2 mph at 15°Double: 73.0 mph at 51°Out: 68.9 mph at 66°Out: 100.4 mph at 22°Out: 73.0 mph at 73°Single: 80.6 mph at -9°Single: 72.8 mph at 30°Single: 106.7 mph at -3°Out: 69.3 mph at 58°Out: 83.7 mph at 32°Single: 90.8 mph at 6°Out: 73.6 mph at -3°Out: 88.9 mph at -7°Out: 75.9 mph at -2°Out: 90.5 mph at 24°Double: 107.2 mph at 20°Out: 91.4 mph at 19°Double: 66.3 mph at 43°Out: 82.3 mph at -12°Home run: 108.2 mph at 26°Out: 84.0 mph at -34°Double: 79.7 mph at 30°Single: 91.5 mph at 8°Out: 88.1 mph at 0°Out: 97.0 mph at -3°
25% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.9%61.7%+3.2
2+ total bases41.6%37.6%+4.0
Home run16.4%12.6%+3.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+2.4
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+1.5
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+1.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Bryce Harper hits
Bryce Harper · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .448 shrunk (raw .709 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.448xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .357 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 33 pitches seen.331xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .200 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 26 pitches seen.244xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .462 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 39 pitches seen.390xwOBA .462 shrunk (raw .527 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 46 pitches seen.462xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .277 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 37 pitches seen.296xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .285 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 27 pitches seen.296xwOBA .539 shrunk (raw .642 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 48 pitches seen.539xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .241 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.263xwOBA .438 shrunk (raw .464 on 28 PA) · league .377 · 154 pitches seen.438xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .593 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.354xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .263 on 36 PA) · league .263 · 138 pitches seen.263xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .391 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 164 pitches seen.357
vs RHP · 831 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 21 swings · league 22%38%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 20%35%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 19%28%Whiff 17% of 29 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 11%4%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 8% of 40 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 52% of 25 swings · league 28%52%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 24%18%Whiff 35% of 66 swings · league 32%35%Whiff 59% of 56 swings · league 49%59%
vs RHP · 831 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 57% of 37 pitches · league 62%57%Swings at 70% of 33 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 69% of 26 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 74% of 39 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 74% of 46 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 73% of 37 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 82% of 27 pitches · league 65%82%Swings at 83% of 48 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 16% of 154 pitches · league 24%16%Swings at 25% of 44 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 48% of 138 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 34% of 164 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 831 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Bryce Harper against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.379.34923.9%17.1%42About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.331.30229.3%26.2%37About league average vs these
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.373.34429.9%27.0%25About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.360.33128.8%25.9%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryce Harper · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.222.417.222.325.32116.7%25.0%33.3%83.997.00.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1236.300.389.433.363.33022.2%13.9%35.7%87.6108.24.3%34.8%39.1%
Last 30 G2473.339.452.492.428.40920.5%17.8%31.4%90.5108.58.9%42.2%44.4%
90 days68210.294.419.512.409.40220.0%18.1%27.8%91.8112.69.2%47.7%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 130 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.222.225.3000.0%0.0%16.7%82.198.70.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1129.214.241.321.255.21027.6%3.4%31.7%83.1107.25.3%21.1%36.8%
Last 30 G2155.302.327.415.331.25327.3%3.6%29.8%84.6109.35.4%32.4%48.6%
90 days57127.208.331.302.296.26630.7%15.0%32.2%84.5109.34.5%25.4%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.222.333.222.285.3139.5%14.3%26.7%82.998.70.0%26.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1565.259.323.379.316.27724.6%9.2%33.8%85.6108.24.8%28.6%38.1%
Last 30 G30128.321.398.455.387.34323.4%11.7%30.7%87.8109.37.3%37.8%46.3%
90 days77337.261.386.431.367.35124.0%16.9%29.5%89.3112.67.6%40.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 197 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
Bryce Harper · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .358results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball96.965.929.853Single
Sep 24LHPSinker95.192.68.512Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper82.472.450.152Out
Sep 24LHPSinker97.187.2-23.063Out
Sep 24LHPSlider86.898.711.855Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.783.361.017Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.377.760.008Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.095.9-11.200Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper82.888.62.304Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.085.727.079Out
Sep 20RHPCutter92.797.0-23.108Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball91.395.328.276Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411012
Sep 24422000
Sep 23400010
Sep 22400010
Sep 20511000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18400003
Sep 17533011
Sep 16511011
Sep 15400001

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Bryce Harper bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryce Harper with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.5%41.0%
Whiff%23.0%21.3%
Contact%77.0%78.7%
Chase%36.5%39.6%
wOBA.280.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.1%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.368
K%23.4%
BB%15.8%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%24.6%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

209 PA
wOBA.399
xwOBA vs this mix.389against pitches like his
RV/1001.65
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%20.4%
BB%16.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryce Harper: every projection we've made →