MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 7Cedric Mullins
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.269wOBA vs LHP.244xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .306 vs league .314 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .314 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Cedric Mullins: wOBA .310 vs league .318 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Cedric Mullins's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.2%53.3%-1.1
2+ total bases26.1%27.5%-1.5
Home run7.3%9.0%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Cedric Mullins against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.306.31414.7%12.4%6Little history vs this shape
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.314.32217.2%16.2%4Little history vs this shape
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.310.31830.9%32.3%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating13Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.288 / .266running 22 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Cedric Mullins bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Cedric Mullins with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.5%44.1%
Whiff%21.5%22.7%
Contact%78.5%77.3%
Chase%36.6%38.2%
wOBA.222.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.4%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.302
K%19.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV85.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

46 PA
wOBA.269
xwOBA vs this mix.244against pitches like his
RV/100-0.74
Hard-hit%18.1%
K%22.3%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Cedric Mullins: every projection we've made →