MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 6Chandler Simpson
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.366wOBA vs LHP.252xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .326 vs league .314 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .334 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .330 vs league .318 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Chandler Simpson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Chandler Simpson's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 79.0 mph at -12°Out: 70.9 mph at -11°Out: 88.9 mph at 1°Out: 91.5 mph at -20°Out: 27.4 mph at -14°Out: 81.8 mph at 40°Single: 94.7 mph at -26°Out: 105.3 mph at -20°Single: 93.3 mph at 5°Out: 80.3 mph at 45°Out: 73.5 mph at 63°Single: 73.4 mph at 15°Out: 82.8 mph at -6°Out: 98.5 mph at -3°Out: 30.9 mph at 3°Single: 89.8 mph at -9°Single: 67.5 mph at 26°Out: 98.4 mph at 4°Out: 81.7 mph at 31°Single: 90.7 mph at 5°Out: 73.0 mph at -47°Out: 91.4 mph at 17°Out: 88.0 mph at -21°Out: 90.1 mph at 36°Out: 100.9 mph at -22°Single: 92.9 mph at 8°Out: 79.2 mph at 31°Out: 84.4 mph at -9°Out: 94.2 mph at -7°Single: 81.3 mph at 10°Out: 41.1 mph at -16°Out: 49.7 mph at -36°Double: 66.5 mph at 10°Single: 101.3 mph at -6°Single: 77.5 mph at -44°Single: 80.3 mph at 16°Double: 98.0 mph at 19°Out: 65.1 mph at 57°Out: 78.9 mph at -43°Out: 92.5 mph at 7°
15% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.1%65.7%+0.4
2+ total bases29.4%29.0%+0.4
Home run1.0%1.2%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Chandler Simpson hits
Chandler Simpson · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .249 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 14 pitches seen.245xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .264 on 13 PA) · league .296 · 22 pitches seen.279xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .246 on 5 PA) · league .254 · 9 pitches seen.252xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .203 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.282xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .310 on 10 PA) · league .385 · 24 pitches seen.351xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .240 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 19 pitches seen.292xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .220 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.255xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .254 on 11 PA) · league .350 · 25 pitches seen.304xwOBA .277 shrunk (raw .248 on 9 PA) · league .299 · 19 pitches seen.277xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .063 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 13 pitches seen.284xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .264 on 15 PA) · league .346 · 45 pitches seen.300xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .176 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 84 pitches seen.238xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .212 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 40 pitches seen.239
vs LHP · 349 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 21%5%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 17 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 16%14%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 29%4%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 48%35%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 34%13%
vs LHP · 349 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 63%71%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 71%86%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 67%56%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 90% of 19 pitches · league 72%90%Swings at 47% of 17 pitches · league 59%47%Swings at 56% of 25 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 74% of 19 pitches · league 66%74%Swings at 39% of 13 pitches · league 30%39%Swings at 56% of 45 pitches · league 26%56%Swings at 20% of 84 pitches · league 31%20%Swings at 57% of 40 pitches · league 41%57%
vs LHP · 349 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Chandler Simpson against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.326.3146.2%12.4%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.334.32211.3%16.2%17About league average vs these
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.330.31819.7%32.3%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Chandler Simpson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.286.286.286.321.18414.3%0.0%23.1%81.0105.30.0%16.7%8.3%
Last 15 G1231.258.258.290.302.2436.5%0.0%13.7%77.7105.30.0%10.3%27.6%
Last 30 G2558.316.316.333.337.2506.9%0.0%11.4%77.3105.30.0%13.5%21.2%
90 days56115.351.351.414.372.2447.8%0.0%9.7%76.6105.30.0%13.6%25.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 103 balls in play
Ground 70%Line drive 16%Fly ball 12%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G14.000.000.000.000.1970.0%0.0%0.0%72.491.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1128.346.393.385.384.3150.0%7.1%2.4%81.4101.30.0%26.9%19.2%
Last 30 G2566.300.354.333.359.3133.0%7.6%8.2%81.1101.30.0%13.6%25.4%
90 days65192.337.361.376.351.3013.6%4.7%7.8%81.6106.80.0%12.0%29.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 21%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.222.222.222.250.18711.1%0.0%18.8%78.9105.30.0%12.5%6.2%
Last 15 G1559.298.322.333.341.2773.4%3.4%8.6%79.4105.30.0%18.2%23.6%
Last 30 G30124.308.336.333.349.2844.8%4.0%9.7%79.3105.30.0%13.5%23.4%
90 days74307.343.358.391.358.2805.2%2.9%8.6%79.7106.80.0%12.6%28.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 278 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 19%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
Chandler Simpson · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating17Poor
Last 100 pitches35trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .279running 67 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker96.379.0-12.084Error
Sep 25LHPSinker97.270.9-11.071Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.888.91.347Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.791.5-20.094Out
Sep 24RHPFastball95.327.4-14.335Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.381.840.013Out
Sep 24LHPSinker89.694.7-26.129Single
Sep 22LHPSinker95.3105.3-20.238Out
Sep 22LHPSinker91.693.35.521Single
Sep 22LHPFastball93.280.345.030Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper80.673.563.000Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.073.415.483Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24511000
Sep 22311000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20311000
Sep 19422000
Sep 18500000
Sep 17522000
Sep 16423000
Sep 15334000

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Chandler Simpson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Chandler Simpson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.8%44.1%
Whiff%18.5%22.7%
Contact%81.5%77.3%
Chase%37.8%38.2%
wOBA.225.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%21.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.342
K%6.5%
BB%3.3%
Whiff%5.2%
Barrel%0.3%
Hard-hit%13.0%
Avg EV80.3

Against left-handers, last 90 days

112 PA
wOBA.366
xwOBA vs this mix.252against pitches like his
RV/1000.45
Hard-hit%13.8%
K%8.5%
BB%3.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Chandler Simpson: every projection we've made →