MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 10Jorge Mateo
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.242wOBA vs LHP.248xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .356 vs league .370 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .318 vs league .332 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .294 vs league .307 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jorge Mateo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jorge Mateo's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 75.4 mph at 42°Out: 91.7 mph at 65°Single: 58.4 mph at -75°Out: 88.7 mph at -7°Single: 90.5 mph at 10°Out: 81.0 mph at 53°Single: 74.0 mph at -6°Out: 90.8 mph at 21°Out: 52.7 mph at 9°Out: 85.7 mph at 41°Out: 82.6 mph at 39°Out: 78.8 mph at 64°Out: 33.8 mph at -48°Single: 70.5 mph at 21°Out: 87.0 mph at 61°Out: 75.1 mph at -52°Single: 83.5 mph at -60°Out: 62.4 mph at -9°Out: 89.2 mph at -13°Out: 101.9 mph at 14°Out: 78.3 mph at 37°Out: 90.1 mph at -20°Out: 87.4 mph at 59°Out: 88.3 mph at 46°Out: 83.0 mph at 48°Out: 51.6 mph at 72°Out: 82.4 mph at 59°Out: 90.0 mph at -5°Single: 96.4 mph at 15°Out: 88.3 mph at 23°Out: 74.1 mph at 71°Single: 99.5 mph at 17°Out: 75.0 mph at -10°Out: 95.0 mph at -4°Out: 101.0 mph at 14°Out: 92.8 mph at 29°Double: 89.1 mph at 11°Out: 60.0 mph at -67°Out: 75.3 mph at -38°Out: 79.1 mph at -6°
13% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit48.6%49.2%-0.6
2+ total bases24.3%24.8%-0.5
Home run6.8%7.0%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jorge Mateo hits
Jorge Mateo · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .100 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.257xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .139 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 6 pitches seen.238xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .083 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 9 pitches seen.309xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .173 on 5 PA) · league .340 · 9 pitches seen.291xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .456 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 7 pitches seen.299xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .248 on 3 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.330xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .186 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 11 pitches seen.276xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .392 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 6 pitches seen.315xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .010 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 25 pitches seen.262xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .231 on 6 PA) · league .289 · 21 pitches seen.270xwOBA .219 shrunk (raw .169 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 26 pitches seen.219
vs LHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 16%17%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 67% of 9 swings · league 29%67%Whiff 39% of 13 swings · league 48%39%Whiff 57% of 14 swings · league 34%57%
vs LHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 71%80%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 64%83%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 67%60%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 72%89%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 59%57%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 66%55%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 36% of 25 pitches · league 26%36%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 31%62%Swings at 54% of 26 pitches · league 41%54%
vs LHP · 141 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jorge Mateo against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.356.37010.0%11.0%8About league average vs these
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.318.33234.7%30.3%11About league average vs these
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.294.30732.6%32.3%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jorge Mateo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.000.000.000.05950.0%0.0%36.4%85.391.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1019.158.158.158.142.08736.8%0.0%36.1%82.191.70.0%0.0%8.3%
Last 30 G1838.139.184.167.164.16523.7%5.3%26.4%83.395.40.0%3.7%22.2%
90 days2143.146.186.171.166.17925.6%4.7%25.0%83.7102.30.0%10.0%23.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 20%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.167.167.167.150.03383.3%0.0%31.2%58.458.40.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1026.083.120.083.108.14553.8%0.0%33.3%75.0101.90.0%9.1%36.4%
Last 30 G2250.133.184.222.187.23142.0%4.0%35.2%79.8102.77.7%26.9%42.3%
90 days2760.130.186.204.182.22541.7%5.0%36.7%79.3102.79.7%25.8%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 26%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.083.083.083.075.04666.7%0.0%33.3%78.691.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1545.116.136.116.123.12046.7%0.0%34.4%78.7101.90.0%4.3%21.7%
Last 30 G3088.136.184.198.177.20234.1%4.5%31.7%81.6102.73.8%15.1%32.1%
90 days35103.137.186.189.175.20635.0%4.9%32.1%81.4102.74.9%18.0%31.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 23%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 18%
Jorge Mateo · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating1Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.180 / .204running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.075.442.170Out
Sep 25LHPSlider87.991.765.014Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.258.4-75.199Single
Sep 22LHPSlider88.288.7-7.167Out
Sep 16LHPSinker91.690.510.525Single
Sep 16LHPFastball91.881.053.023Out
Sep 15LHPCurveball73.974.0-6.088Single
Sep 12RHPFastball98.190.821.272Out
Sep 11RHPSinker90.852.79.141Double play
Sep 11RHPSinker93.985.741.008Out
Sep 10LHPSinker85.882.639.026Out
Sep 10LHPCutter83.978.864.015Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 23411003
Sep 22200001
Sep 19200002
Sep 18100001
Sep 16311001
Sep 15311002
Sep 12300002
Sep 11300000
Sep 10300001

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Jorge Mateo bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jorge Mateo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.2%41.5%
Whiff%23.2%21.6%
Contact%76.8%78.4%
Chase%44.0%39.9%
wOBA.235.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.8%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.239
K%31.4%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%13.4%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%19.0%
Avg EV84.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

40 PA
wOBA.242
xwOBA vs this mix.248against pitches like his
RV/100-1.88
Hard-hit%16.2%
K%24.7%
BB%5.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jorge Mateo: every projection we've made →