MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TB · batting 3Junior Caminero
Bats rightTalent grade APowerCold
.406wOBA vs LHP.383xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PHICristopher Sánchez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 118Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Cristopher Sánchez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 46% usage, 95.0 mph, +18.1″ arm side, +4.6″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .381 vs league .370 (about even).Sinker 46%Changeup: 35% usage, 87.2 mph, +17.0″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .344 vs league .332 (about even).Changeup 35%Slider: 19% usage, 86.6 mph, -0.7″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .319 vs league .307 (about even).Slider 19%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Junior Caminero's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Junior Caminero's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 72.1 mph at 65°Single: 106.3 mph at 5°Single: 95.9 mph at 4°Single: 108.2 mph at 17°Out: 107.4 mph at 14°Out: 59.3 mph at 65°Out: 97.7 mph at 22°Out: 93.3 mph at 64°Out: 82.8 mph at 67°Out: 104.2 mph at -2°Out: 92.7 mph at 60°Out: 71.5 mph at -37°Out: 77.1 mph at 14°Out: 93.8 mph at 44°Out: 89.3 mph at 74°Double: 95.5 mph at 2°Out: 83.7 mph at 8°Single: 95.2 mph at 1°Out: 69.0 mph at -75°Out: 110.9 mph at -5°Out: 53.3 mph at -11°Single: 87.7 mph at 18°Double: 101.4 mph at 15°Out: 70.2 mph at -27°Out: 84.1 mph at 46°Out: 97.1 mph at 17°Out: 70.2 mph at 86°Double: 104.0 mph at 21°Out: 93.6 mph at -2°Out: 107.0 mph at 29°Home run: 97.3 mph at 29°Out: 84.9 mph at 34°Out: 85.0 mph at 5°Out: 89.6 mph at 64°Double: 102.9 mph at 2°Out: 86.4 mph at -2°Out: 52.7 mph at 52°Out: 93.0 mph at -37°Single: 101.6 mph at 9°
43% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.5%67.0%+1.4
2+ total bases44.8%43.4%+1.4
Home run19.2%18.7%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+1.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.2
Home run
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Junior Caminero hits
Junior Caminero · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .648 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.344xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .927 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.345xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .622 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.346xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .263 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 20 pitches seen.305xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .498 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 29 pitches seen.433xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .542 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.414xwOBA .191 shrunk (raw .067 on 8 PA) · league .273 · 24 pitches seen.191xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .382 on 6 PA) · league .350 · 15 pitches seen.361xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .212 on 10 PA) · league .299 · 22 pitches seen.259xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .382 on 9 PA) · league .302 · 37 pitches seen.336xwOBA .407 shrunk (raw .651 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 32 pitches seen.407xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .383 on 6 PA) · league .289 · 61 pitches seen.320xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw .445 on 21 PA) · league .257 · 80 pitches seen.377
vs LHP · 367 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 19%14%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 21%50%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 23%11%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 16%23%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 25%9%Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 29%63%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 48%25%Whiff 30% of 30 swings · league 34%30%
vs LHP · 367 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 63%58%Swings at 40% of 5 pitches · league 71%40%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 64%69%Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 67%45%Swings at 76% of 29 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 72%65%Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 59%50%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 66%59%Swings at 30% of 37 pitches · league 30%30%Swings at 25% of 32 pitches · league 26%25%Swings at 20% of 61 pitches · league 31%20%Swings at 38% of 80 pitches · league 41%38%
vs LHP · 367 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Junior Caminero against each of Cristopher Sánchez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker46%95.0+18″ / +5″.381.3709.0%11.0%11About league average vs these
Changeup35%87.2+17″ / +0″.344.33225.8%30.3%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider19%86.6-1″ / -3″.319.30728.3%32.3%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Junior Caminero · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.222.222.333.239.43922.2%0.0%27.3%93.5107.014.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G823.211.348.316.309.37317.4%17.4%23.8%87.9107.013.3%40.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1743.273.442.424.400.46611.6%23.3%22.1%89.8115.514.3%42.9%35.7%
90 days4495.286.421.519.417.43713.7%17.9%18.8%91.8116.412.5%43.8%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 64 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.200.180.2450.0%0.0%25.0%90.0108.210.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1438.216.237.432.284.33115.8%2.6%18.4%90.3110.99.7%41.9%32.3%
Last 30 G2986.268.291.488.331.31120.9%1.2%19.8%91.6110.910.8%47.7%29.2%
90 days76251.259.311.504.359.33920.7%6.0%23.7%92.1116.912.2%48.6%26.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 181 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.211.211.263.208.33710.5%0.0%26.1%91.4108.211.8%47.1%29.4%
Last 15 G1561.214.279.393.293.34716.4%8.2%20.3%89.5110.910.9%41.3%32.6%
Last 30 G30129.270.341.470.353.36017.8%8.5%20.4%91.1115.511.8%46.2%31.2%
90 days80346.265.341.508.374.36518.8%9.2%22.5%92.0116.912.2%47.3%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 245 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 19%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 16%
Junior Caminero · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches29trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.373 / .367results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup87.1107.0281.918Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball91.072.165.000Out
Sep 25LHPSlider88.6106.35.579Single
Sep 24RHPSinker97.595.94.511Single
Sep 24RHPCutter88.0108.217.758Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.4107.414.748Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper77.359.365.003Out
Sep 24RHPFastball99.197.722.393Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.693.364.005Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.882.867.003Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.4104.2-2.372Double play
Sep 22LHPFastball96.492.760.013Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24522000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22300001
Sep 22512000
Sep 20411001
Sep 19411001
Sep 18512021
Sep 17500021
Sep 16412001

Two strikes

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPwith two strikes
Cristopher Sánchez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup35%40%37.2%24.8%18.3%
Sinker46%32%8.8%18.6%17.7%
Slider19%28%34.7%26.8%21.6%
Junior Caminero bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Junior Caminero with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%35.8%41.5%
Whiff%18.4%21.6%
Contact%81.6%78.4%
Chase%40.4%39.9%
wOBA.259.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.8%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.373
K%19.0%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%8.4%
Hard-hit%33.3%
Avg EV91.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

92 PA
wOBA.406
xwOBA vs this mix.383against pitches like his
RV/1000.85
Hard-hit%28.6%
K%14.7%
BB%9.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI vs TB
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 25.3 batters over 5.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.6%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.2%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.8%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.3%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.7%
BB%6.0%
Whiff%14.2%
Velo90.6
BTB Stuff118
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker46%12194.94.6%
Changeup35%12087.323.4%
Slider19%10986.620.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209824%10%48%.260
Sep 159819%11%30%.466
Sep 98112%6%35%.498

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Cristopher Sánchez PHI · LHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Junior Caminero: every projection we've made →