MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 1Kyle Schwarber
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.326wOBA vs RHP.341xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .347 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .300 vs league .302 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .341 vs league .344 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .329 vs league .331 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Schwarber's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Schwarber's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.6 mph at 7°Out: 112.2 mph at 0°Out: 101.2 mph at -14°Double: 111.8 mph at 9°Single: 100.9 mph at 9°Out: 102.2 mph at -4°Out: 101.7 mph at 44°Out: 71.9 mph at -18°Out: 92.1 mph at 67°Out: 86.7 mph at -7°Out: 79.6 mph at 82°Out: 100.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.0 mph at 38°Double: 93.6 mph at 18°Out: 66.0 mph at -14°Out: 86.0 mph at 58°Out: 80.0 mph at 79°Out: 98.5 mph at 58°Out: 97.7 mph at 33°Out: 92.1 mph at 78°Out: 90.4 mph at 10°Home run: 98.3 mph at 33°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Out: 70.6 mph at 50°Single: 108.6 mph at 8°Out: 90.9 mph at -21°Single: 104.2 mph at 12°Out: 100.8 mph at 35°Out: 86.4 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at -24°Out: 104.2 mph at 48°Out: 93.4 mph at -25°Out: 70.3 mph at 3°Out: 91.1 mph at 56°Home run: 105.7 mph at 30°Single: 86.6 mph at 5°Out: 80.5 mph at 13°Out: 80.1 mph at 63°Out: 106.2 mph at 8°Out: 92.4 mph at 21°
45% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.0%56.0%+2.0
2+ total bases41.8%38.7%+3.0
Home run23.1%19.3%+3.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.9
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Schwarber hits
Kyle Schwarber · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .321 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.293xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .216 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.268xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .110 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 25 pitches seen.218xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .256 on 24 PA) · league .342 · 54 pitches seen.285xwOBA .560 shrunk (raw .721 on 13 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.560xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .223 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.272xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .364 on 24 PA) · league .308 · 58 pitches seen.345xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .426 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.400xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .304 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.296xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .368 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 138 pitches seen.371xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .131 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 53 pitches seen.209xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .279 on 28 PA) · league .263 · 132 pitches seen.274xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .442 on 34 PA) · league .274 · 218 pitches seen.398
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 15 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 32% of 28 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 19%19%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 11% of 37 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 11% of 44 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 48% of 46 swings · league 32%48%Whiff 62% of 61 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 46% of 33 pitches · league 62%46%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 63% of 54 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 72% of 43 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 68% of 34 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 64% of 58 pitches · league 65%64%Swings at 77% of 57 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 19% of 138 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 49% of 53 pitches · league 34%49%Swings at 35% of 132 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 28% of 218 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Schwarber against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.347.34924.1%17.1%59About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.300.30235.3%26.2%23About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.341.34432.1%27.0%23About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.329.33131.4%25.9%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Schwarber · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.000.385.000.269.4517.7%38.5%13.0%95.9112.20.0%57.1%0.0%
Last 15 G1239.100.308.233.268.33330.8%23.1%26.6%94.6112.25.6%50.0%16.7%
Last 30 G2583.145.277.362.284.34827.7%15.7%29.1%90.8112.210.6%40.4%27.7%
90 days67222.194.321.417.324.35431.1%15.8%29.3%92.2112.211.2%50.0%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 116 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.286.444.429.394.38111.1%11.1%38.5%97.2111.80.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1229.174.345.348.319.31520.7%13.8%23.5%91.3111.80.0%47.1%29.4%
Last 30 G2053.233.377.465.371.37418.9%15.1%25.2%91.6111.86.1%48.5%33.3%
90 days55118.237.364.423.350.33425.4%14.4%27.4%90.4112.25.9%41.2%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.133.409.200.320.4229.1%27.3%22.2%96.5112.20.0%61.5%15.4%
Last 15 G1568.132.324.283.290.32626.5%19.1%25.4%93.0112.22.9%48.6%22.9%
Last 30 G30136.179.316.402.318.35824.3%15.4%27.6%91.1112.28.8%43.8%30.0%
90 days75340.209.336.419.333.34729.1%15.3%28.6%91.6112.29.2%46.7%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 184 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 16%
Kyle Schwarber · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating82Excellent
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.335 / .354running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball96.992.67.481Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.8112.20.553Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.6101.2-14.178Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.3111.89.822Double
Sep 24LHPSinker93.8100.99.614Single
Sep 24LHPSinker97.5102.2-4.322Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.7101.744.103Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.671.9-18.040Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.792.167.017Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.186.7-7.142Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.979.682.003Out
Sep 22RHPCutter94.1100.135.688Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400010
Sep 24423000
Sep 23500011
Sep 22400001
Sep 20500040
Sep 19512012
Sep 18400011
Sep 17500011
Sep 16500012
Sep 15414110

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Kyle Schwarber bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Schwarber with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.9%41.0%
Whiff%27.8%21.3%
Contact%72.2%78.7%
Chase%35.9%39.6%
wOBA.252.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.7%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.347
K%29.1%
BB%14.9%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%25.9%
Avg EV91.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

221 PA
wOBA.326
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.21
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%31.0%
BB%14.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Schwarber: every projection we've made →