MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 25, 2026
5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · PHI · batting 2Trea Turner
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.336wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TBFreddy Peralta
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.7projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Freddy Peralta's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 53% usage, 94.5 mph, +6.8″ arm side, +16.9″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .354 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 53%Changeup: 24% usage, 87.3 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .339 vs league .331 (about even).Changeup 24%Curveball: 13% usage, 79.2 mph, -4.3″ arm side, -3.5″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .330 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 13%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .292 vs league .284 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Trea Turner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Trea Turner's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 95.4 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 56°Out: 81.6 mph at 35°Out: 87.8 mph at -22°Out: 91.6 mph at 59°Out: 107.4 mph at 6°Out: 93.1 mph at 32°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 78.5 mph at -33°Out: 79.2 mph at 70°Out: 105.7 mph at -7°Out: 92.0 mph at -32°Single: 108.3 mph at 6°Double: 108.7 mph at 2°Single: 96.3 mph at 10°Out: 84.5 mph at 6°Single: 87.6 mph at 11°Out: 42.7 mph at -60°Single: 102.0 mph at 13°Out: 95.4 mph at 15°Out: 97.6 mph at 39°Out: 73.0 mph at -33°Out: 83.7 mph at -18°Out: 90.3 mph at 27°Out: 82.9 mph at -70°Out: 86.2 mph at 54°Out: 82.9 mph at 67°Single: 98.4 mph at 13°Out: 83.2 mph at 84°Out: 92.5 mph at 21°Single: 77.5 mph at 8°Single: 73.0 mph at 40°Out: 69.8 mph at -33°Out: 93.5 mph at -12°Single: 76.2 mph at -49°Out: 97.6 mph at 30°Out: 68.8 mph at -38°Out: 88.5 mph at 47°Out: 80.3 mph at 75°Out: 93.4 mph at 20°
28% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.7%63.4%+1.4
2+ total bases37.5%35.8%+1.6
Home run10.8%9.6%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+1.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Trea Turner hits
Trea Turner · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .212 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.244xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .434 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.365xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .092 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.200xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .360 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.353xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .281 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 51 pitches seen.316xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .236 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 52 pitches seen.271xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .148 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 33 pitches seen.249xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .280 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 36 pitches seen.307xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .326 on 20 PA) · league .292 · 48 pitches seen.313xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .351 on 30 PA) · league .377 · 120 pitches seen.358xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .237 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 64 pitches seen.256xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .254 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 49 pitches seen.259xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .192 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 253 pitches seen.211
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 20%27%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 8% of 36 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 22% of 27 swings · league 17%22%Whiff 26% of 55 swings · league 28%26%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 24%24%Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 68% of 78 swings · league 49%68%
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 62%78%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 57% of 30 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 71% of 51 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 56% of 52 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 70% of 33 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 56% of 48 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 46% of 120 pitches · league 24%46%Swings at 27% of 64 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 47% of 49 pitches · league 40%47%Swings at 31% of 253 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Trea Turner against each of Freddy Peralta's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball53%94.5+7″ / +17″.354.34623.9%19.8%42About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup24%87.3+17″ / +4″.339.33126.3%22.5%25About league average vs these
Curveball13%79.2-4″ / -4″.330.32334.1%27.7%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper8%82.4-10″ / +6″.292.28437.4%30.6%38About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Trea Turner · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.182.308.273.273.22323.1%15.4%14.8%90.2108.70.0%25.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1239.273.385.394.353.28515.4%15.4%23.8%87.7108.73.7%22.2%29.6%
Last 30 G2580.208.288.347.295.25023.8%10.0%27.4%87.4108.75.7%32.1%30.2%
90 days66223.255.309.461.339.27121.5%7.2%28.8%86.6110.15.1%34.2%31.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.222.338.32222.2%0.0%37.5%96.7108.30.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1128.154.214.154.219.29921.4%7.1%31.2%87.5108.30.0%36.8%26.3%
Last 30 G2053.204.264.245.258.32511.3%7.5%24.2%87.2108.34.8%33.3%23.8%
90 days49111.230.306.330.299.37214.4%9.0%19.5%89.8108.36.0%45.8%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.200.273.250.298.26022.7%9.1%23.3%93.0108.70.0%35.7%7.1%
Last 15 G1567.220.313.288.298.29017.9%11.9%26.5%87.6108.72.2%28.3%28.3%
Last 30 G30133.207.278.306.280.27918.8%9.0%26.2%87.3108.75.3%32.6%27.4%
90 days74334.247.308.418.326.30419.2%7.8%25.6%87.7110.15.4%38.2%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 241 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 13%
Trea Turner · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating39Below average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.324 / .305running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.195.45.449Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.791.056.009Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.581.635.030Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.187.8-22.101Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup88.091.659.010Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball81.7107.46.586Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.293.132.178Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper82.381.41.224Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.378.5-33.066Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.779.270.006Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup87.8105.7-7.385Error
Sep 22RHPSinker97.892.0-32.088Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24400001
Sep 23511001
Sep 22411000
Sep 20512022
Sep 19522020
Sep 18411001
Sep 17500020
Sep 16500011
Sep 15411000

Two strikes

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes
Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball53%48%13.9%15.0%18.0%
Changeup24%27%25.9%16.0%18.6%
Curveball13%13%23.5%19.6%20.0%
Sweeper8%10%29.2%17.9%19.3%
Offspeed1%2%40.0%28.6%13.1%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Trea Turner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Trea Turner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.6%42.4%
Whiff%24.3%22.2%
Contact%75.7%77.8%
Chase%42.0%39.9%
wOBA.236.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.4%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.336
K%19.4%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%12.5%
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

223 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/1000.54
Hard-hit%24.5%
K%21.9%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 31.6%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.4%13%67 strikeouts: 9.0%9%78 strikeouts: 5.2%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.0%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.8%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.4%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball53%12694.79.7%
Changeup24%8887.312.5%
Curveball13%6979.113.4%
Sweeper8%10182.514.2%
Slider1%7882.911.1%
Offspeed1%–73.928.6%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199726%12%9%.290
Sep 138622%9%6%.117
Sep 8928%4%50%.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Trea Turner: every projection we've made →