MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 1Brandon Nimmo
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.258wOBA vs RHP.277xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .330 vs league .357 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .298 vs league .324 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .297 vs league .324 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .287 vs league .313 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .325 vs league .353 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .335 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Nimmo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Nimmo's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 96.1 mph at 21°Out: 91.3 mph at 73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Single: 100.8 mph at 5°Out: 92.3 mph at -21°Single: 70.3 mph at 33°Single: 99.9 mph at 14°Out: 67.2 mph at 5°Single: 88.3 mph at 15°Out: 78.4 mph at 35°Out: 91.2 mph at -7°Out: 93.2 mph at -20°Out: 89.2 mph at -10°Out: 62.9 mph at -35°Out: 84.9 mph at -35°Double: 105.3 mph at 8°Out: 88.4 mph at 47°Single: 106.3 mph at 12°Single: 75.9 mph at 36°Single: 102.5 mph at -3°Out: 80.8 mph at 44°Double: 100.1 mph at 10°Double: 92.3 mph at 26°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Out: 100.3 mph at -6°Out: 66.0 mph at -13°Out: 73.2 mph at -8°Single: 106.5 mph at 3°Out: 60.7 mph at -34°Single: 104.5 mph at 10°Out: 86.0 mph at 30°Out: 99.9 mph at -9°Out: 74.6 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 12°Out: 104.9 mph at -30°Out: 95.1 mph at 19°Out: 102.4 mph at -6°Out: 96.0 mph at 39°Out: 75.3 mph at -38°Out: 97.8 mph at 45°
48% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.4%62.4%+0.0
2+ total bases37.4%37.0%+0.5
Home run11.3%10.1%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
-1.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
-1.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Nimmo hits
Brandon Nimmo · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .122 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 42 pitches seen.236xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .182 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 49 pitches seen.253xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .280 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.270xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .228 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 52 pitches seen.272xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .341 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.359xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .183 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.262xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .317 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.312xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .254 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 41 pitches seen.299xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .362 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.332xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .328 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 99 pitches seen.352xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .154 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 65 pitches seen.212xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .245 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 101 pitches seen.252xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .243 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 150 pitches seen.252
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 19% of 32 swings · league 22%19%Whiff 22% of 41 swings · league 20%22%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 22% of 37 swings · league 10%22%Whiff 3% of 37 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 18% of 33 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 33% of 27 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 39% of 23 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 24%16%Whiff 24% of 29 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 56% of 48 swings · league 49%56%
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 76% of 42 pitches · league 62%76%Swings at 84% of 49 pitches · league 72%84%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 66%86%Swings at 71% of 52 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 82% of 45 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 77% of 43 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 78% of 41 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 23% of 99 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 39% of 65 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 29% of 101 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 32% of 150 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Nimmo against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.330.35718.5%16.6%53About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.298.32427.8%24.7%7Little history vs this shape
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.297.32419.3%21.0%33About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.287.31330.3%27.2%8About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.325.35316.2%14.3%45About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.335.36224.5%21.7%24About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Nimmo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.273.273.364.277.23545.5%0.0%25.0%88.6100.80.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1136.152.222.242.213.18947.2%8.3%36.4%88.9100.80.0%43.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2375.149.240.254.231.25133.3%9.3%27.9%92.0110.64.9%51.2%26.8%
90 days61182.171.253.280.244.26229.1%9.3%23.3%91.6110.63.6%49.1%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.286.312.29237.5%12.5%41.2%88.499.90.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1026.333.385.375.344.26630.8%7.7%39.2%89.4106.50.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2053.354.377.417.355.29122.6%5.7%31.1%91.3107.82.7%43.2%35.1%
90 days49115.387.417.547.436.34919.1%6.1%23.4%90.9108.14.7%45.9%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.278.316.333.292.25942.1%5.3%31.7%88.5100.80.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1562.228.290.298.268.22140.3%8.1%37.4%89.1106.50.0%40.6%28.1%
Last 30 G30128.235.297.322.282.26728.9%7.8%29.1%91.7110.63.8%47.4%30.8%
90 days72297.256.316.385.319.29525.3%8.1%23.3%91.3110.64.1%47.7%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 195 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
Brandon Nimmo · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches14trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .311results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter90.096.121.292Double
Sep 24LHPCutter90.891.373.000Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.6100.637.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.2100.85.593Single
Sep 23LHPSinker95.292.3-21.112Force out
Sep 22LHPSweeper77.370.333.717Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.299.914.805Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.267.25.194Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter89.788.315.917Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter91.678.435.067Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup79.491.2-7.220Double play
Sep 18LHPSinker86.393.2-20.114Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25412003
Sep 24300011
Sep 23411001
Sep 22422001
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500021
Sep 17400003
Sep 16412001
Sep 15411002
Sep 13422001

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Brandon Nimmo bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Nimmo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.0%41.0%
Whiff%21.6%21.3%
Contact%78.4%78.7%
Chase%37.9%39.6%
wOBA.228.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%19.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.323
K%24.1%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%31.6%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

184 PA
wOBA.258
xwOBA vs this mix.277against pitches like his
RV/100-1.40
Hard-hit%29.7%
K%27.3%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Nimmo: every projection we've made →