TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026

The game

TEX runs4.2win 55%

MIN runs3.7win 45%

Total7.8no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning54%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: +1.4% vs neutral air
Weather: – · Wind unknown
Park factor: Runs 106 · HR 94 100 = average
Umpire: Chris Guccione
Schedule: TEX traveled in; MIN 2d rest; MIN traveled in

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

TEX starter

Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN

5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings

Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%31.0%

BB%7.9%

Whiff%14.7%

Velo93.3

BTB Stuff115

Location112

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball41%12397.612.7%

Slider34%12391.717.1%

Changeup13%8889.719.3%

Curveball7%9080.410.3%

Sinker5%9696.710.5%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	82	9%	9%	22%	.363
Sep 15	92	38%	14%	33%	.305
Sep 10	92	63%	21%	16%	.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Luke Keaschall13%

2Brooks Lee13%

3Kody Clemens22%

4Josh Bell19%

5Ryan Jeffers20%

6Walker Jenkins18%

7Royce Lewis24%

8Emmanuel Rodriguez30%

9Ryan Kreidler29%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

MIN starter

Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX

5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.5%

BB%5.2%

Whiff%11.7%

Velo88.6

BTB Stuff89

Location105

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball44%10393.79.3%

Sweeper19%8280.919.2%

Splitter14%6188.112.1%

Curveball10%8679.710.7%

Sinker7%8993.55.7%

Slider6%8987.312.5%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	99	21%	18%	13%	.396
Sep 13	84	5%	6%	36%	.507
Sep 7	66	37%	18%	5%	.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Brandon Nimmo27%

2Josh Jung23%

3Corey Seager21%

4Wyatt Langford23%

5Ezequiel Duran25%

6Nicky Lopez18%

7Jake Burger28%

8Evan Carter25%

9Danny Jansen19%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineuppitch-mix battle

Joe Ryan's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Joe Ryan's pitches					TEX lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	44%	93.7	103	9.3%	-1.05	.326	10.3%	23.5%	+0.67
Sweeper	19%	80.9	82	19.2%	0.69	.319	16.2%	21.1%	-0.31
Splitter	14%	88.1	61	12.1%	0.51	.278	13.9%	28.6%	-0.35
Curveball	10%	79.7	86	10.7%	-1.66	.286	15.1%	23.8%	-0.06
Sinker	7%	93.5	89	5.7%	-10.94	.330	6.0%	32.1%	+0.78
Slider	6%	87.3	89	12.5%	-8.21	.288	18.4%	23.6%	+0.31

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineuppitch-mix battle

Jacob deGrom's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Jacob deGrom's pitches					MIN lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	41%	97.6	123	12.7%	0.68	.354	7.6%	29.8%	+0.80
Slider	34%	91.7	123	17.1%	1.10	.353	14.1%	23.9%	+0.29
Changeup	13%	89.7	88	19.3%	-0.66	.227	14.5%	24.0%	-0.66
Curveball	7%	80.4	90	10.3%	-0.29	.322	13.8%	25.9%	+0.05
Sinker	5%	96.7	96	10.5%	-1.00	.367	5.7%	36.3%	+0.20

Bullpens

Rangers bullpen#27 of 30

K%19.1%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.2%

SwStr%9.1%

wOBA allowed.344

Arms available13 / 16

Pitched yesterday: Rocker, Alexander (Back-to-Back), Silseth (Back-to-Back), Garcia, Montgomery (Back-to-Back).

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Twins bullpen#12 of 30

K%27.0%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%16.4%

SwStr%12.6%

wOBA allowed.340

Arms available14 / 14

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+9 pts

Fastball-2 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Curveball-2 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	34%	43%	35.1%	25.1%	21.1%
Fastball	41%	39%	22.8%	20.7%	18.0%
Changeup	13%	12%	22.7%	10.2%	18.6%
Curveball	7%	5%	38.5%	23.8%	20.0%
Sinker	5%	1%	20.0%	16.7%	17.0%

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-2 pts

Curveball+10 pts

Sweeper+1 pts

Splitter-3 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Slider-4 pts

Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	44%	41%	13.2%	15.9%	18.0%
Curveball	10%	21%	24.1%	14.0%	20.0%
Sweeper	19%	21%	33.3%	23.2%	19.3%
Splitter	14%	11%	11.1%	10.0%	19.0%
Sinker	7%	4%	0.0%	9.1%	17.0%
Slider	6%	2%	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%

Rangers lineup

Confirmed · facing Joe Ryan RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Brandon Nimmo RF · bats L	62.4%	37.4%	11.3%	4.0	+0.0	.258	B	Power	Cold
2	Josh Jung DH · bats R	67.9%	41.1%	13.2%	3.9	+1.1	.340	A	Power	Normal
3	Corey Seager SS · bats L	68.6%	47.0%	21.6%	3.8	+1.9	.330	A	Power	Cold
4	Wyatt Langford LF · bats R	55.0%	32.9%	12.6%	3.8	+1.7	.347	C	Balanced	Normal
5	Ezequiel Duran 3B · bats R	61.4%	34.3%	10.4%	3.7	+1.2	.310	D	Balanced	Cold
6	Nicky Lopez 2B · bats L	55.5%	27.5%	5.3%	3.6	+0.9	.319	F	Balanced	Normal
7	Jake Burger 1B · bats R	55.3%	34.1%	15.2%	3.5	-0.5	.266	B	Power	Cold
8	Evan Carter CF · bats L	51.1%	26.5%	6.9%	3.4	+1.2	.299	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Danny Jansen C · bats R	55.0%	29.1%	10.0%	3.3	+1.2	.357	D	Balanced	Hot

Twins lineup

Confirmed · facing Jacob deGrom RHP