MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 2Brooks Lee
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.349wOBA vs RHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Brooks Lee: wOBA .344 vs league .335 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Brooks Lee: wOBA .343 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Brooks Lee: wOBA .291 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Brooks Lee: wOBA .327 vs league .318 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Brooks Lee: wOBA .358 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brooks Lee's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brooks Lee's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.0 mph at 73°Out: 52.3 mph at 31°Out: 98.6 mph at -9°Out: 91.2 mph at 57°Out: 90.7 mph at -13°Single: 70.1 mph at 34°Out: 96.9 mph at 35°Single: 82.4 mph at 10°Single: 82.4 mph at 21°Out: 88.2 mph at 21°Home run: 97.6 mph at 29°Out: 89.8 mph at -2°Out: 93.3 mph at 39°Out: 87.6 mph at 2°Single: 89.4 mph at 16°Single: 97.0 mph at 15°Single: 103.7 mph at 14°Out: 87.2 mph at 34°Double: 100.0 mph at 3°Out: 86.1 mph at 63°Out: 68.0 mph at -32°Out: 91.7 mph at 20°Out: 93.7 mph at 10°Single: 100.6 mph at 4°Single: 74.7 mph at 28°Out: 62.6 mph at 12°Out: 74.7 mph at -40°Single: 91.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.3 mph at 23°Single: 101.1 mph at 16°Out: 91.9 mph at 38°Out: 97.7 mph at 4°Single: 70.5 mph at 27°Out: 79.5 mph at 55°Out: 97.3 mph at -3°Out: 84.7 mph at -23°Single: 104.0 mph at 8°Out: 16.8 mph at 70°Out: 102.6 mph at -3°Out: 72.8 mph at 5°
30% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.3%66.0%-0.7
2+ total bases38.2%38.6%-0.4
Home run9.9%10.4%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brooks Lee hits
Brooks Lee · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .222 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.247xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .286 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.296xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .150 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 10 pitches seen.235xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .355 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 49 pitches seen.350xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .417 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.405xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .298 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 32 pitches seen.311xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .300 on 28 PA) · league .308 · 52 pitches seen.302xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .285 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 42 pitches seen.311xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .376 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.330xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .292 on 15 PA) · league .377 · 125 pitches seen.330xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .180 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.227xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .303 on 25 PA) · league .263 · 138 pitches seen.290xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .399 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 141 pitches seen.347
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 22%9%Whiff 13% of 24 swings · league 20%13%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 5% of 39 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 5% of 41 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 7% of 29 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 3% of 39 swings · league 14%3%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 4% of 23 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 19% of 47 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 24%21%Whiff 26% of 57 swings · league 32%26%Whiff 50% of 48 swings · league 49%50%
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 27 pitches · league 62%82%Swings at 96% of 25 pitches · league 72%96%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 66%90%Swings at 80% of 49 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 76% of 54 pitches · league 76%76%Swings at 91% of 32 pitches · league 70%91%Swings at 75% of 52 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 79% of 42 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 64% of 36 pitches · league 60%64%Swings at 38% of 125 pitches · league 24%38%Swings at 56% of 34 pitches · league 34%56%Swings at 41% of 138 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 34% of 141 pitches · league 32%34%
vs RHP · 765 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brooks Lee against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.344.33512.0%19.5%49About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.343.33420.4%25.6%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.291.28221.2%27.4%31About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.327.31820.4%25.6%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.358.3499.9%16.7%57About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brooks Lee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.353.353.529.382.32411.8%0.0%17.1%86.398.60.0%20.0%46.7%
Last 15 G1441.333.366.410.370.35012.2%4.9%20.5%86.6104.02.9%26.5%44.1%
Last 30 G2985.296.318.494.359.36211.8%3.5%16.8%89.5106.25.6%38.9%43.1%
90 days68207.276.309.464.344.31311.1%4.8%16.3%88.8106.23.5%38.7%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.250.400.250.320.37220.0%20.0%50.0%97.1103.70.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1022.158.227.211.202.20831.8%4.5%33.3%83.2103.70.0%38.5%30.8%
Last 30 G2342.231.262.308.251.18723.8%2.4%21.7%86.9104.60.0%30.0%33.3%
90 days53101.226.277.301.262.20529.7%5.0%21.8%87.0106.50.0%31.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.333.364.476.368.33513.6%4.5%21.3%88.1103.70.0%27.8%44.4%
Last 15 G1563.276.317.345.310.30019.0%4.8%24.8%85.7104.02.1%29.8%40.4%
Last 30 G30127.275.299.433.323.30315.7%3.1%18.3%88.7106.23.9%36.3%40.2%
90 days74308.260.299.412.317.27717.2%4.9%18.1%88.3106.52.5%36.9%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 236 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 19%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
Brooks Lee · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating36Below average
Last 100 pitches87trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.323 / .302running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.287.073.006Out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.352.331.118Out
Sep 25RHPSinker89.098.6-9.231Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.891.257.016Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.690.7-13.133Out
Sep 23RHPSlider86.870.134.697Single
Sep 23LHPFastball94.196.935.317Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.682.410.458Single
Sep 22RHPCurveball82.882.421.695Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.788.221.398Out
Sep 21RHPSlider87.697.629.654Home run
Sep 21RHPSweeper83.989.8-2.236Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500001
Sep 23511011
Sep 22422001
Sep 21414100
Sep 20433000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18422000
Sep 17522000
Sep 16311010
Sep 15300002

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Brooks Lee bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Brooks Lee with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%29.9%41.0%
Whiff%14.7%21.3%
Contact%85.3%78.7%
Chase%44.4%39.6%
wOBA.282.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.2%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
K%17.3%
BB%5.1%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%29.1%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

206 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/1000.57
Hard-hit%32.7%
K%12.6%
BB%5.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brooks Lee: every projection we've made →