MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 8Emmanuel Rodriguez
Bats leftTalent grade AvgPowerNormal
.324wOBA vs RHP.342xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Emmanuel Rodriguez: wOBA .335 vs league .335 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Emmanuel Rodriguez: wOBA .334 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Emmanuel Rodriguez: wOBA .282 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Emmanuel Rodriguez: wOBA .318 vs league .318 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Emmanuel Rodriguez: wOBA .349 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Emmanuel Rodriguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Emmanuel Rodriguez's last 29 balls in playHit (8)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.8 mph at 17°Out: 98.7 mph at 27°Out: 75.9 mph at 56°Out: 92.8 mph at 21°Single: 87.1 mph at 20°Out: 71.3 mph at -45°Out: 74.8 mph at -59°Home run: 106.8 mph at 30°Out: 57.4 mph at 50°Out: 83.6 mph at 78°Double: 98.1 mph at 32°Out: 85.7 mph at -18°Out: 90.1 mph at -23°Out: 70.2 mph at -35°Out: 99.5 mph at 17°Out: 88.0 mph at 12°Out: 63.8 mph at 33°Out: 79.9 mph at 1°Double: 98.3 mph at 29°Single: 109.2 mph at -2°Out: 81.9 mph at 25°Triple: 108.4 mph at 12°Out: 104.1 mph at -19°Single: 98.4 mph at -13°Out: 102.9 mph at 30°Out: 101.8 mph at 8°Out: 101.1 mph at 32°Home run: 111.1 mph at 21°Out: 91.0 mph at 46°
48% hit 95+ mph52% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.8%57.5%-1.6
2+ total bases31.3%32.6%-1.3
Home run12.0%12.9%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Emmanuel Rodriguez hits
Emmanuel Rodriguez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .195 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 3 pitches seen.268xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .252 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 7 pitches seen.299xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .026 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 7 pitches seen.245xwOBA .499 shrunk (raw .814 on 6 PA) · league .342 · 13 pitches seen.499xwOBA .474 shrunk (raw .827 on 3 PA) · league .386 · 6 pitches seen.474xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .352 on 2 PA) · league .321 · 6 pitches seen.325xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .379 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.329xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .351 · 4 pitches seen.324xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 4 pitches seen.250xwOBA .377 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .377 · 5 pitches seenxwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.253xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .066 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 27 pitches seen.205xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .349 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.293
vs RHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 22%50%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 10%27%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 57% of 7 swings · league 14%57%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 13%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 28%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 67% of 12 swings · league 32%67%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 49%71%
vs RHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 70%85%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 70% of 10 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 0% of 4 pitches · league 60%0%Swings at 0% of 5 pitches · league 24%0%Swings at 14% of 7 pitches · league 34%14%Swings at 44% of 27 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 30% of 23 pitches · league 32%30%
vs RHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Emmanuel Rodriguez against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.335.33525.8%19.5%8Little history vs this shape; misses them more than most
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.334.33431.5%25.6%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.282.28238.2%27.4%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.318.31831.4%25.6%2Little history vs this shape
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.349.34922.4%16.7%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Emmanuel Rodriguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.167.286.417.371.40728.6%14.3%25.0%84.4106.825.0%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1233.161.212.419.294.37642.4%6.1%39.7%88.9111.129.4%52.9%52.9%
Last 30 G1233.161.212.419.294.37642.4%6.1%39.7%88.9111.129.4%52.9%52.9%
90 days1233.161.212.419.294.37642.4%6.1%39.7%88.9111.129.4%52.9%52.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 29%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.250.250.500.312.2430.0%0.0%20.0%88.198.10.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G815.214.267.357.333.30413.3%6.7%16.7%93.1109.28.3%41.7%50.0%
Last 30 G815.214.267.357.333.30413.3%6.7%16.7%93.1109.28.3%41.7%50.0%
90 days815.214.267.357.333.30413.3%6.7%16.7%93.1109.28.3%41.7%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 17%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.188.278.438.358.37122.2%11.1%24.1%85.7106.816.7%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1348.178.229.400.306.35433.3%6.2%33.3%90.6111.120.7%48.3%51.7%
Last 30 G1348.178.229.400.306.35433.3%6.2%33.3%90.6111.120.7%48.3%51.7%
90 days1348.178.229.400.306.35433.3%6.2%33.3%90.6111.120.7%48.3%51.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 24%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 7%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .414running 79 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.595.817.504Out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.398.727.860Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.675.956.106Out
Sep 23LHPSlider83.992.821.268Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.987.120.564Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.471.3-45.176Error
Sep 21RHPFastball96.474.8-59.264Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.1106.8301.904Home run
Sep 20RHPCutter89.557.450.026Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter85.083.678.010Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup83.598.132.529Double
Sep 20LHPChangeup77.885.7-18.070Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 23411010
Sep 22300011
Sep 21314101
Sep 20412000
Sep 19200001
Sep 18400003
Sep 17400003
Sep 16500011
Sep 15323000

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Emmanuel Rodriguez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Emmanuel Rodriguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.5%41.0%
Whiff%25.2%21.3%
Contact%74.8%78.7%
Chase%40.0%39.6%
wOBA.233.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.4%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgPower type
wOBA.318
K%24.6%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%11.4%
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV88.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

29 PA
wOBA.324
xwOBA vs this mix.342against pitches like his
RV/1000.01
Hard-hit%25.5%
K%30.2%
BB%7.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Emmanuel Rodriguez: every projection we've made →