MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 8Evan Carter
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.299wOBA vs RHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .349 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .316 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .315 vs league .324 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .305 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .344 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Evan Carter: wOBA .353 vs league .362 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Evan Carter's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Evan Carter's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.4 mph at 2°Out: 86.0 mph at -22°Out: 90.0 mph at 53°Out: 8.6 mph at -36°Out: 97.6 mph at 8°Single: 105.6 mph at 4°Single: 89.9 mph at 16°Single: 67.1 mph at 31°Out: 80.6 mph at 50°Out: 83.0 mph at 46°Out: 50.8 mph at 12°Out: 78.1 mph at 75°Out: 82.5 mph at 44°Out: 32.4 mph at -14°Out: 29.4 mph at -42°Out: 23.9 mph at -20°Out: 105.8 mph at 14°Single: 104.4 mph at 12°Out: 74.5 mph at -21°Out: 81.8 mph at -43°Out: 81.4 mph at 54°Single: 73.1 mph at 24°Out: 100.9 mph at 2°Single: 104.2 mph at -7°Out: 86.7 mph at 26°Out: 78.9 mph at 1°Home run: 105.9 mph at 26°Single: 82.9 mph at -1°Out: 91.5 mph at 27°Triple: 95.1 mph at -21°Out: 92.8 mph at -1°Out: 95.2 mph at 70°Out: 32.8 mph at 4°Out: 54.0 mph at -28°Single: 28.3 mph at -10°Out: 90.2 mph at -2°Out: 88.7 mph at 47°Out: 103.9 mph at -1°Out: 78.8 mph at 49°Out: 101.9 mph at 47°
30% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.1%49.8%+1.2
2+ total bases26.5%25.3%+1.2
Home run6.9%6.2%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Evan Carter hits
Evan Carter · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .101 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 38 pitches seen.200xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .143 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 27 pitches seen.241xwOBA .155 shrunk (raw .011 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.155xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .250 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.286xwOBA .479 shrunk (raw .527 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 49 pitches seen.479xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .226 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 33 pitches seen.267xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .273 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 39 pitches seen.289xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .203 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 37 pitches seen.280xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .162 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 37 pitches seen.233xwOBA .432 shrunk (raw .487 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 102 pitches seen.432xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .231 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.260xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .337 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 114 pitches seen.309xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .307 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 121 pitches seen.293
vs RHP · 689 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 20 swings · league 22%40%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 20%18%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 6% of 36 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 36% of 25 swings · league 13%36%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 45% of 31 swings · league 32%45%Whiff 71% of 31 swings · league 49%71%
vs RHP · 689 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 53% of 38 pitches · league 62%53%Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 72%63%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 69% of 45 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 74% of 49 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 56% of 39 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 68% of 37 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 43% of 37 pitches · league 60%43%Swings at 17% of 102 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 46% of 28 pitches · league 34%46%Swings at 27% of 114 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 26% of 121 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 689 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Evan Carter against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.349.35717.6%16.6%45About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.316.32432.3%24.7%5Little history vs this shape; misses them more than most
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.315.32425.0%21.0%37About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.305.31335.4%27.2%10About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.344.35316.0%14.3%40About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.353.36228.7%21.7%27About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Evan Carter · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.286.250.243.32528.6%7.1%25.9%80.6105.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1538.188.270.188.251.29231.6%7.9%31.1%78.4105.80.0%31.8%31.8%
Last 30 G3075.194.257.299.264.27229.3%6.7%26.6%82.6105.92.1%34.0%31.9%
90 days69175.214.295.331.295.28425.1%9.1%26.1%85.6107.83.5%34.5%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 113 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 20%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.0520.0%0.0%0.0%80.680.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G67.000.000.000.000.06657.1%0.0%25.0%63.786.70.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1115.143.143.143.143.11440.0%0.0%33.3%61.795.70.0%11.1%11.1%
90 days3145.179.220.179.207.18235.6%4.4%31.9%68.8104.00.0%22.2%14.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 7%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.267.231.227.30726.7%6.7%25.0%80.6105.60.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.154.227.154.211.25735.6%6.7%30.1%76.6105.80.0%28.0%32.0%
Last 30 G3090.185.239.272.244.24731.1%5.6%27.6%79.2105.91.8%30.4%28.6%
90 days71220.207.280.301.278.26527.3%8.2%27.2%82.4107.82.9%32.1%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 140 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
Evan Carter · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating11Poor
Last 100 pitches18trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.262 / .263results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball79.297.42.449Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.486.0-22.093Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.890.053.011Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup81.28.6-36.316Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.697.68.639Out
Sep 20RHPSinker91.5105.64.578Single
Sep 20RHPCurveball87.889.916.876Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.567.131.869Single
Sep 19LHPSweeper84.780.650.052Out
Sep 19RHPFastball90.583.046.018Sac fly
Sep 18RHPCurveball78.450.812.147Fielder's choice
Sep 18RHPSinker96.778.175.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 24100010
Sep 23300000
Sep 20433000
Sep 19400002
Sep 18400002
Sep 17300001
Sep 15200000
Sep 13200001
Sep 12111000

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Evan Carter bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Evan Carter with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.2%41.0%
Whiff%21.8%21.3%
Contact%78.2%78.7%
Chase%30.4%39.6%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.7%19.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%25.7%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%11.3%
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%21.2%
Avg EV83.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

172 PA
wOBA.299
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/100-0.40
Hard-hit%22.3%
K%24.5%
BB%8.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Evan Carter: every projection we've made →