MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 7Jake Burger
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.266wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .334 vs league .354 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .259 vs league .279 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .329 vs league .350 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .262 vs league .283 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .331 vs league .351 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .300 vs league .320 (pitcher's edge).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Burger's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Burger's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.3 mph at 36°Out: 71.9 mph at -21°Single: 100.7 mph at -3°Out: 87.1 mph at 43°Out: 81.6 mph at 5°Out: 70.9 mph at -8°Out: 78.4 mph at -7°Out: 94.5 mph at 38°Single: 99.8 mph at -3°Out: 74.6 mph at 50°Out: 93.9 mph at -22°Out: 97.8 mph at 37°Home run: 106.7 mph at 37°Out: 78.7 mph at 44°Out: 105.4 mph at 43°Out: 95.9 mph at 20°Double: 107.1 mph at 25°Out: 107.9 mph at -22°Out: 80.3 mph at -25°Out: 85.8 mph at 9°Single: 85.0 mph at -12°Out: 88.6 mph at -13°Double: 110.2 mph at 18°Out: 92.9 mph at 58°Out: 101.9 mph at -5°Out: 78.9 mph at 76°Out: 90.4 mph at 22°Out: 64.2 mph at 61°Out: 85.6 mph at 65°Single: 71.4 mph at -1°Out: 75.2 mph at -45°Out: 58.6 mph at 6°Out: 91.4 mph at 1°Out: 89.6 mph at -12°Out: 109.6 mph at 16°Home run: 105.1 mph at 25°Home run: 105.7 mph at 26°Home run: 103.9 mph at 26°Single: 86.8 mph at 13°Out: 70.3 mph at 30°
35% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.3%55.8%-0.5
2+ total bases34.1%34.7%-0.6
Home run15.2%15.6%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-1.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake Burger hits
Jake Burger · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .393 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.322xwOBA .424 shrunk (raw .776 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.424xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .053 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 16 pitches seen.201xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .218 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 31 pitches seen.278xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .236 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.296xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .152 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.222xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .528 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.402xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .382 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.369xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .160 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.235xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .262 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 79 pitches seen.303xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .229 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.250xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .306 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 57 pitches seen.286xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .231 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 235 pitches seen.242
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 9%21%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 34% of 44 swings · league 28%34%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 38% of 32 swings · league 32%38%Whiff 81% of 63 swings · league 49%81%
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 62%86%Swings at 89% of 26 pitches · league 72%89%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 94% of 31 pitches · league 70%94%Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 52% of 25 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 62% of 34 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 45% of 38 pitches · league 60%45%Swings at 56% of 79 pitches · league 24%56%Swings at 35% of 54 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 56% of 57 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 27% of 235 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Burger against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.334.35420.0%13.1%56About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.259.27940.1%31.6%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.329.35022.8%16.1%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.262.28336.9%28.6%15About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.331.35117.1%11.3%46About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.300.32037.0%28.8%36About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Burger · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.500.327.3249.1%9.1%17.6%88.9106.711.1%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1336.107.278.214.242.26527.8%19.4%36.2%86.4107.95.3%26.3%10.5%
Last 30 G2874.175.338.263.288.31129.7%20.3%36.9%87.9109.58.1%29.7%24.3%
90 days70184.157.261.277.247.27129.3%11.4%34.0%88.7112.99.3%39.3%22.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 107 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 13%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.143.312.16625.0%12.5%26.7%86.2100.70.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1025.227.320.455.372.37120.0%12.0%25.6%92.4110.223.5%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G2248.256.333.674.434.47420.8%10.4%27.6%94.8110.730.3%57.6%33.3%
90 days47104.263.327.568.387.40125.0%8.7%30.8%91.9112.623.2%53.6%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.176.263.353.321.25815.8%10.5%21.9%87.9106.77.1%28.6%0.0%
Last 15 G1561.160.295.320.295.30824.6%16.4%32.1%89.2110.213.9%33.3%19.4%
Last 30 G30122.210.336.440.345.37526.2%16.4%33.5%91.2110.718.6%42.9%28.6%
90 days73288.197.285.386.298.31827.8%10.4%32.8%89.9112.914.8%44.9%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Jake Burger · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches90trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .329running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper79.694.336.163Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.571.9-21.047Force out
Sep 25LHPSinker90.9100.7-3.357Single
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.187.143.008Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper81.181.65.312Double play
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.370.9-8.063Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.078.4-7.077Force out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.394.538.118Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.899.8-3.327Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.174.650.073Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.193.9-22.126Error
Sep 20RHPSlider88.097.837.297Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24400000
Sep 23311000
Sep 22400003
Sep 20414110
Sep 19400003
Sep 18512021
Sep 17400010
Sep 16523011
Sep 15400011

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Jake Burger bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Burger with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.7%42.4%
Whiff%28.5%22.2%
Contact%71.5%77.8%
Chase%43.5%39.9%
wOBA.219.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.2%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.303
K%27.2%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%15.4%
Barrel%8.9%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

186 PA
wOBA.266
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/100-1.11
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%28.3%
BB%9.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Burger: every projection we've made →