MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 4Josh Bell
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerNormal
.333wOBA vs RHP.354xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%2.2trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Josh Bell: wOBA .337 vs league .335 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Josh Bell: wOBA .336 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Josh Bell: wOBA .284 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Josh Bell: wOBA .321 vs league .318 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Josh Bell: wOBA .351 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Bell's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Bell's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.8 mph at 2°Out: 92.9 mph at -15°Out: 79.0 mph at -23°Out: 82.3 mph at -25°Out: 81.5 mph at -4°Single: 81.4 mph at 18°Out: 99.3 mph at -4°Out: 87.7 mph at 44°Out: 92.5 mph at 0°Out: 99.3 mph at -5°Single: 89.4 mph at 20°Single: 76.6 mph at 30°Single: 101.7 mph at -2°Out: 101.8 mph at -7°Single: 101.6 mph at 11°Single: 92.0 mph at 15°Out: 103.8 mph at 23°Out: 84.0 mph at -36°Single: 95.2 mph at 21°Out: 90.6 mph at 33°Out: 61.7 mph at -39°Out: 105.3 mph at -13°Out: 75.7 mph at 71°Single: 86.1 mph at 17°Out: 104.6 mph at 17°Single: 102.6 mph at 13°Out: 74.6 mph at 48°Out: 68.1 mph at -24°Out: 96.7 mph at 28°Out: 78.0 mph at 51°Out: 86.9 mph at 34°Out: 86.0 mph at 32°Single: 106.7 mph at 9°Out: 94.1 mph at -19°Home run: 104.0 mph at 24°Out: 35.8 mph at 38°Out: 63.9 mph at -32°Home run: 104.0 mph at 37°Out: 64.1 mph at 52°Out: 91.7 mph at 1°
38% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.8%64.8%-1.1
2+ total bases39.7%40.6%-0.9
Home run13.9%14.9%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Josh Bell hits
Josh Bell · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .493 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.355xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .408 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.355xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .292 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 34 pitches seen.280xwOBA .518 shrunk (raw .642 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.518xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .407 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 48 pitches seen.399xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .239 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 28 pitches seen.280xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .316 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 41 pitches seen.312xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .263 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 51 pitches seen.296xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .105 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 37 pitches seen.245xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .384 on 23 PA) · league .377 · 127 pitches seen.382xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .342 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 61 pitches seen.307xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .320 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 119 pitches seen.296xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .330 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 183 pitches seen.314
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 22%20%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 8% of 38 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 25% of 24 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 6% of 36 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 19% of 47 swings · league 28%19%Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 24%15%Whiff 19% of 32 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 51% of 41 swings · league 49%51%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 62%65%Swings at 75% of 36 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 88% of 34 pitches · league 66%88%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 79% of 48 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 71% of 28 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 59% of 41 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 71% of 51 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 60%54%Swings at 37% of 127 pitches · league 24%37%Swings at 43% of 61 pitches · league 34%43%Swings at 27% of 119 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 22% of 183 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Bell against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.337.33516.7%19.5%56About league average vs these
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.336.33420.3%25.6%17About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.284.28222.8%27.4%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.321.31820.3%25.6%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.351.34914.6%16.7%54About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Bell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.273.385.273.315.34115.4%15.4%16.7%92.7104.80.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1438.235.289.324.274.39113.2%7.9%18.4%91.7106.713.3%46.7%40.0%
Last 30 G2883.229.313.329.289.37913.3%9.6%17.2%91.0113.79.7%45.2%35.5%
90 days67202.249.338.410.332.36018.8%11.4%18.2%91.8113.710.1%45.7%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 16%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.375.444.375.378.37611.1%11.1%6.2%89.9101.80.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1127.208.296.333.285.31718.5%11.1%17.8%85.7104.65.3%36.8%36.8%
Last 30 G2145.262.311.381.307.30220.0%6.7%18.7%86.1111.13.0%39.4%33.3%
90 days4899.298.333.479.352.33114.1%5.1%15.7%87.6111.17.5%35.0%35.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.316.409.316.341.35613.6%13.6%13.0%91.5104.80.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 15 G1565.224.292.328.278.36015.4%9.2%18.2%89.4106.710.2%42.9%38.8%
Last 30 G30128.241.312.348.295.35215.6%8.6%17.7%89.3113.77.4%43.2%34.7%
90 days71301.266.337.434.339.35017.3%9.3%17.4%90.2113.79.2%41.7%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 218 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
Josh Bell · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches23trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.342 / .362running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.6104.82.498Out
Sep 25RHPSinker95.492.9-15.161Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup85.779.0-23.035Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.582.3-25.046Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup88.181.5-4.116Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.281.418.916Single
Sep 23RHPSinker94.799.3-4.250Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.587.744.008Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.392.50.342Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.699.3-5.232Double play
Sep 20RHPCutter89.489.420.475Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.776.630.187Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400020
Sep 23511000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20533011
Sep 19422001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17511001
Sep 16511001
Sep 15400000
Sep 14425101

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Josh Bell bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Bell with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%41.0%
Whiff%20.0%21.3%
Contact%80.0%78.7%
Chase%40.9%39.6%
wOBA.229.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.9%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.336
K%17.5%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%30.9%
Avg EV90.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

201 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.354against pitches like his
RV/1000.14
Hard-hit%31.2%
K%19.1%
BB%8.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Bell: every projection we've made →