MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 3Kody Clemens
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.319wOBA vs RHP.339xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Kody Clemens: wOBA .331 vs league .335 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Kody Clemens: wOBA .330 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Kody Clemens: wOBA .278 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Kody Clemens: wOBA .314 vs league .318 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Kody Clemens: wOBA .345 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kody Clemens's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kody Clemens's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 90.0 mph at 21°Single: 99.1 mph at -7°Home run: 103.9 mph at 27°Out: 98.5 mph at 0°Out: 87.0 mph at 58°Out: 91.7 mph at -10°Out: 95.1 mph at -12°Out: 106.2 mph at 8°Single: 104.4 mph at 3°Out: 78.5 mph at 46°Out: 85.0 mph at 36°Out: 60.6 mph at -38°Out: 56.3 mph at 82°Out: 96.8 mph at 43°Out: 73.9 mph at -29°Out: 91.9 mph at 34°Out: 77.3 mph at -24°Out: 91.3 mph at 4°Out: 81.0 mph at -57°Out: 99.2 mph at 38°Single: 75.2 mph at 25°Out: 39.6 mph at -39°Out: 83.7 mph at 24°Single: 104.8 mph at 6°Triple: 95.2 mph at 0°Out: 88.9 mph at 1°Out: 65.9 mph at -2°Out: 88.1 mph at -29°Out: 73.8 mph at 8°Out: 95.7 mph at -16°Out: 100.8 mph at 10°Out: 64.0 mph at -72°Double: 91.4 mph at 27°Out: 94.3 mph at 60°Single: 82.7 mph at 17°Out: 66.4 mph at -35°Out: 83.3 mph at 33°Single: 94.7 mph at 3°Out: 77.8 mph at 34°Single: 104.9 mph at 4°
33% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.7%63.8%-2.1
2+ total bases38.2%39.8%-1.7
Home run15.6%16.6%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kody Clemens hits
Kody Clemens · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .204 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.242xwOBA .424 shrunk (raw .579 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.424xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .212 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.240xwOBA .409 shrunk (raw .451 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 54 pitches seen.409xwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .425 on 21 PA) · league .386 · 59 pitches seen.411xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .178 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 41 pitches seen.235xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .348 on 17 PA) · league .308 · 45 pitches seen.331xwOBA .430 shrunk (raw .490 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 40 pitches seen.430xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .368 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 43 pitches seen.327xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .300 on 25 PA) · league .377 · 156 pitches seen.325xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .333 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.296xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .468 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 88 pitches seen.389xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .254 on 22 PA) · league .274 · 122 pitches seen.261
vs RHP · 787 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 22%35%Whiff 26% of 31 swings · league 20%26%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 6% of 36 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 11% of 47 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 15% of 34 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 15% of 27 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 16% of 44 swings · league 28%16%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 24%45%Whiff 31% of 35 swings · league 32%31%Whiff 49% of 45 swings · league 49%49%
vs RHP · 787 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 36 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 78% of 40 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 66%82%Swings at 67% of 54 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 80% of 59 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 83% of 41 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 60% of 45 pitches · league 65%60%Swings at 68% of 40 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 61% of 43 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 28% of 156 pitches · league 24%28%Swings at 49% of 41 pitches · league 34%49%Swings at 40% of 88 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 37% of 122 pitches · league 32%37%
vs RHP · 787 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kody Clemens against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.331.33521.1%19.5%68About league average vs these
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.330.33427.3%25.6%18About league average vs these
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.278.28224.4%27.4%26About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.314.31827.2%25.6%17About league average vs these
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.345.34918.3%16.7%56About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kody Clemens · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.250.250.438.294.27812.5%0.0%17.6%87.9106.27.1%42.9%21.4%
Last 15 G1438.278.316.556.393.34313.2%5.3%17.3%89.0106.29.7%45.2%29.0%
Last 30 G2978.290.359.565.403.40117.9%10.3%19.1%91.1108.212.5%46.4%37.5%
90 days67204.237.289.478.332.35422.1%6.9%22.5%92.7108.211.2%49.7%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 20%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.350.02550.0%0.0%50.0%96.896.80.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1223.150.227.250.300.20026.1%8.7%22.5%82.4104.90.0%26.7%6.7%
Last 30 G2445.175.250.225.264.24324.4%6.7%19.5%87.1105.90.0%43.3%16.7%
90 days5497.236.292.416.336.28324.7%6.2%20.9%86.7106.04.5%39.4%22.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 66 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.222.222.389.300.25016.7%0.0%19.4%88.5106.26.7%46.7%20.0%
Last 15 G1561.232.283.446.359.29018.0%6.6%19.1%86.8106.26.5%39.1%21.7%
Last 30 G30123.248.320.440.353.34420.3%8.9%19.2%89.7108.28.1%45.3%30.2%
90 days72301.236.290.458.333.33122.9%6.6%22.0%90.8108.29.1%46.4%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 209 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
Kody Clemens · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating78Above average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.322 / .345running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.390.021.313Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.499.1-7.238Single
Sep 25RHPCutter90.5103.9271.646Home run
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.698.50.428Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.487.058.010Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.991.7-10.235Fielder's choice
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.395.1-12.169Force out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.1106.28.630Double play
Sep 22RHPCurveball83.2104.43.566Single
Sep 21RHPFastball96.778.546.033Out
Sep 21RHPFastball94.485.036.011Out
Sep 20RHPSplitter82.860.6-38.119Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25436100
Sep 23200000
Sep 22411001
Sep 21400002
Sep 20400000
Sep 18400000
Sep 17511011
Sep 16511012
Sep 15413000
Sep 14500001

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Kody Clemens bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kody Clemens with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%41.0%
Whiff%20.5%21.3%
Contact%79.5%78.7%
Chase%43.1%39.6%
wOBA.232.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.321
K%23.1%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%32.0%
Avg EV90.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

204 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.339against pitches like his
RV/1000.23
Hard-hit%33.8%
K%22.3%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kody Clemens: every projection we've made →