MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 1Luke Keaschall
Bats rightTalent grade AContactNormal
.399wOBA vs RHP.333xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Luke Keaschall: wOBA .369 vs league .340 (hitter's edge).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Luke Keaschall: wOBA .319 vs league .290 (hitter's edge).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Luke Keaschall: wOBA .312 vs league .283 (hitter's edge).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Luke Keaschall: wOBA .315 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Luke Keaschall: wOBA .374 vs league .345 (hitter's edge).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Luke Keaschall's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Luke Keaschall's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 105.8 mph at 22°Triple: 95.6 mph at 15°Single: 65.7 mph at 37°Single: 71.8 mph at 42°Out: 91.6 mph at 34°Out: 93.1 mph at 33°Home run: 102.6 mph at 25°Out: 45.8 mph at -71°Triple: 101.8 mph at 26°Out: 80.5 mph at 30°Out: 88.6 mph at 26°Out: 76.7 mph at 69°Out: 84.6 mph at 43°Out: 67.3 mph at -6°Out: 82.2 mph at 34°Out: 96.1 mph at 42°Double: 97.7 mph at 10°Out: 56.4 mph at -52°Out: 89.3 mph at 65°Single: 79.6 mph at 22°Out: 102.3 mph at 4°Out: 89.2 mph at 39°Out: 58.7 mph at -33°Out: 78.8 mph at -11°Single: 93.6 mph at 3°Out: 41.5 mph at -66°Out: 95.6 mph at 35°Single: 66.2 mph at 24°Single: 99.5 mph at 9°Single: 97.9 mph at 11°Out: 101.3 mph at 4°Single: 86.0 mph at 6°Out: 73.7 mph at 11°Single: 53.9 mph at -51°Single: 79.2 mph at -6°Out: 86.5 mph at -28°Out: 88.4 mph at 48°Out: 86.3 mph at 45°Single: 100.7 mph at 8°Out: 85.0 mph at 55°
30% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.7%67.4%+1.4
2+ total bases39.0%37.4%+1.6
Home run8.6%8.8%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+2.6
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Luke Keaschall hits
Luke Keaschall · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .175 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.227xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .268 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 34 pitches seen.291xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .316 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 28 pitches seen.290xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .266 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.301xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .404 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 50 pitches seen.397xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .382 on 25 PA) · league .321 · 59 pitches seen.362xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .453 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 29 pitches seen.361xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .304 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.325xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .237 on 17 PA) · league .292 · 45 pitches seen.260xwOBA .528 shrunk (raw .635 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 56 pitches seen.528xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .273 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.274xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .541 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.396xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .272 on 38 PA) · league .274 · 257 pitches seen.272
vs RHP · 761 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 5% of 20 swings · league 22%5%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 20%6%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 19%6%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 9% of 35 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 2% of 46 swings · league 11%2%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 28%6%Whiff 19% of 31 swings · league 24%19%Whiff 60% of 10 swings · league 32%60%Whiff 42% of 45 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 761 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 87% of 23 pitches · league 62%87%Swings at 53% of 34 pitches · league 72%53%Swings at 57% of 28 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 76% of 33 pitches · league 70%76%Swings at 70% of 50 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 78% of 59 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 62% of 29 pitches · league 65%62%Swings at 68% of 38 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 58% of 45 pitches · league 60%58%Swings at 29% of 56 pitches · league 24%29%Swings at 42% of 74 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 29% of 35 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 18% of 257 pitches · league 32%18%
vs RHP · 761 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Luke Keaschall against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.369.34011.3%20.3%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.319.29022.6%30.8%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.312.28323.8%29.7%14About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.315.28620.8%27.8%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.374.3456.8%12.1%62About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Luke Keaschall · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.312.312.625.391.31718.8%0.0%13.8%82.2105.815.4%23.1%38.5%
Last 15 G1343.324.419.486.398.36211.6%9.3%16.2%81.8105.86.2%21.9%31.2%
Last 30 G2789.324.438.541.440.37710.1%9.0%14.4%84.9105.86.2%29.7%29.7%
90 days66205.313.422.518.422.34911.7%9.8%15.0%84.6105.84.8%31.5%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 17%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.400.3331.200.542.4170.0%0.0%16.7%87.4102.616.7%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G923.333.318.524.361.3214.3%0.0%18.6%82.7102.64.5%27.3%27.3%
Last 30 G2247.295.304.409.313.31810.6%2.1%16.5%86.6105.87.3%24.4%36.6%
90 days4997.326.385.430.382.34515.5%6.2%20.1%85.7105.84.1%24.7%42.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 22%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.333.318.762.432.34413.6%0.0%14.6%83.9105.815.8%31.6%36.8%
Last 15 G1566.328.385.500.385.3489.1%6.1%17.1%82.2105.85.6%24.1%29.6%
Last 30 G30136.314.393.492.396.35710.3%6.6%15.1%85.6105.86.7%27.6%32.4%
90 days72302.317.410.488.410.34812.9%8.6%16.7%85.0105.84.6%29.2%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 219 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 19%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 9%
Luke Keaschall · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating85Excellent
Last 100 pitches31trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.397 / .358running 39 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.7105.8221.415Double
Sep 25RHPFastball97.895.615.803Triple
Sep 25RHPFastball89.465.737.614Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper87.171.842.329Single
Sep 25RHPSlider93.691.634.091Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.893.133.149Sac fly
Sep 23LHPSlider85.2102.6251.331Home run
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.845.8-71.272Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.5101.8261.262Triple
Sep 22RHPFastball96.080.530.097Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.888.626.065Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.076.769.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25547000
Sep 23414101
Sep 22413000
Sep 21400001
Sep 19512001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17511002
Sep 16633000
Sep 15433000
Sep 14500030

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Luke Keaschall bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Luke Keaschall with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.9%42.4%
Whiff%19.0%22.2%
Contact%81.0%77.8%
Chase%35.5%39.9%
wOBA.269.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.2%24.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.390
K%13.6%
BB%8.9%
Whiff%7.7%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%21.7%
Avg EV85.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

204 PA
wOBA.399
xwOBA vs this mix.333against pitches like his
RV/1001.64
Hard-hit%22.8%
K%13.0%
BB%8.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Luke Keaschall: every projection we've made →