MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 6Nicky Lopez
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.319wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .351 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .319 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .318 vs league .324 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .308 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .347 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Nicky Lopez: wOBA .356 vs league .362 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nicky Lopez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nicky Lopez's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 73.4 mph at -7°Out: 98.8 mph at 10°Single: 91.7 mph at 13°Out: 70.7 mph at -2°Out: 96.1 mph at 1°Out: 81.5 mph at -26°Out: 71.6 mph at -34°Single: 91.7 mph at 10°Single: 80.3 mph at 17°Out: 100.1 mph at 15°Out: 96.8 mph at 0°Out: 36.4 mph at -48°Out: 89.9 mph at 26°Out: 71.8 mph at -59°Out: 31.4 mph at -41°Out: 97.3 mph at -9°Out: 38.6 mph at -56°Out: 93.5 mph at 42°Out: 83.3 mph at -37°Single: 16.0 mph at 53°Single: 95.4 mph at -10°Single: 96.5 mph at 10°Single: 69.1 mph at 25°Single: 99.0 mph at 11°Double: 97.7 mph at 17°Out: 23.2 mph at -7°Out: 64.6 mph at 79°Out: 94.0 mph at 25°Out: 75.3 mph at 3°Single: 77.2 mph at 23°Out: 86.2 mph at 36°Out: 87.6 mph at 20°Out: 84.7 mph at 34°Out: 88.3 mph at 5°Out: 82.9 mph at 28°Single: 87.2 mph at 4°Out: 72.2 mph at -21°Out: 83.1 mph at -34°Out: 94.7 mph at 25°Out: 84.5 mph at 35°
23% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.5%54.6%+0.9
2+ total bases27.5%26.6%+0.9
Home run5.3%4.7%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nicky Lopez hits
Nicky Lopez · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seenxwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .558 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 15 pitches seen.343xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .416 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.301xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .282 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 30 pitches seen.318xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .396 on 6 PA) · league .386 · 31 pitches seen.389xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .279 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 30 pitches seen.300xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .287 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 27 pitches seen.298xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .311 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.329xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .102 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.201xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .393 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 43 pitches seen.383xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .244 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.270xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .181 on 17 PA) · league .263 · 67 pitches seen.215xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .383 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 132 pitches seen.353
vs RHP · 497 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 22% of 27 swings · league 9%22%Whiff 0% of 23 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 26% of 50 swings · league 49%26%
vs RHP · 497 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 40% of 15 pitches · league 62%40%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 80% of 15 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 63% of 30 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 87% of 31 pitches · league 76%87%Swings at 77% of 30 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 59% of 27 pitches · league 65%59%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 88% of 33 pitches · league 60%88%Swings at 16% of 43 pitches · league 24%16%Swings at 24% of 21 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 37% of 67 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 38% of 132 pitches · league 32%38%
vs RHP · 497 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nicky Lopez against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.351.35712.6%16.6%32About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.319.32423.7%24.7%9About league average vs these
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.318.32417.2%21.0%30About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.308.31326.4%27.2%16About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.347.35310.7%14.3%27About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.356.36220.6%21.7%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nicky Lopez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.111.385.111.283.41215.4%7.7%19.0%83.498.80.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1437.333.455.370.424.44113.5%5.4%16.9%76.1100.10.0%36.0%36.0%
Last 30 G2660.271.375.333.349.34218.3%5.0%16.2%78.0100.10.0%25.0%32.5%
90 days58135.257.331.301.319.30416.3%5.9%17.1%80.3101.60.0%22.2%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 99 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 21%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G22.000.000.000.000.06450.0%0.0%25.0%89.989.90.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 30 G88.000.000.000.000.12212.5%0.0%11.1%89.196.10.0%14.3%42.9%
90 days2744.205.238.205.220.24918.2%2.3%12.1%80.0104.70.0%21.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 18%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.111.385.111.283.41215.4%7.7%19.0%83.498.80.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1539.310.429.345.398.41915.4%5.1%17.4%76.6100.10.0%34.6%38.5%
Last 30 G3068.236.328.291.304.31417.6%4.4%15.5%79.7100.10.0%23.4%34.0%
90 days64179.243.308.276.294.29116.8%5.0%15.8%80.2104.70.0%22.0%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 21%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 4%
Nicky Lopez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating17Poor
Last 100 pitches93trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.265 / .277results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper79.473.4-7.072Out
Sep 25RHPSlider90.698.810.736Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.791.713.921Single
Sep 23RHPSinker94.070.7-2.063Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.396.11.443Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup85.481.5-26.056Out
Sep 19RHPSinker95.771.6-34.064Out
Sep 18RHPSlider86.091.710.605Single
Sep 18RHPChangeup76.780.317.916Single
Sep 18RHPFastball91.8100.115.716Out
Sep 18RHPFastball99.396.80.374Force out
Sep 17RHPFastball90.136.4-48–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 23311001
Sep 22100000
Sep 20200000
Sep 19300010
Sep 18522001
Sep 17300011
Sep 13100000
Sep 12300000
Sep 11400001

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Nicky Lopez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nicky Lopez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.8%41.0%
Whiff%20.2%21.3%
Contact%79.8%78.7%
Chase%42.4%39.6%
wOBA.238.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.1%19.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.280
K%18.1%
BB%6.9%
Whiff%8.9%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%19.1%
Avg EV82.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

134 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/100-0.83
Hard-hit%16.7%
K%17.8%
BB%5.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nicky Lopez: every projection we've made →