← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 5Jackson Merrill
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jackson Merrill's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 110.4 mph at 21°Out: 79.2 mph at 13°Out: 94.9 mph at 23°Out: 78.3 mph at -27°Out: 76.2 mph at -37°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 79.8 mph at -37°Out: 87.8 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 27°Out: 106.7 mph at -27°Single: 86.4 mph at -11°Out: 104.2 mph at -8°Single: 99.0 mph at 17°Out: 101.1 mph at 6°Home run: 111.4 mph at 29°Triple: 74.8 mph at 48°Out: 85.4 mph at 11°Out: 91.2 mph at 2°Single: 99.8 mph at 15°Single: 110.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.6 mph at 15°Out: 99.5 mph at 33°Out: 83.9 mph at 26°Single: 104.4 mph at 11°Single: 105.8 mph at 12°Out: 81.2 mph at 34°Single: 111.2 mph at 1°Single: 96.6 mph at 14°Single: 99.4 mph at -20°Out: 94.3 mph at -11°Out: 95.8 mph at 7°Double: 100.4 mph at 29°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Home run: 102.2 mph at 31°Out: 69.9 mph at -5°Single: 83.3 mph at 7°Single: 109.5 mph at 14°Double: 98.0 mph at 25°Out: 99.2 mph at 55°Out: 78.1 mph at 55°
57% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.5%68.7%-0.2
2+ total bases46.3%46.2%+0.1
Home run20.1%19.3%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jackson Merrill · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.176.222.235.208.25033.3%5.6%29.4%91.5110.49.1%36.4%45.5%
Last 15 G1549.370.388.609.440.39126.5%4.1%31.2%95.4111.211.8%55.9%47.1%
Last 30 G2892.321.370.571.410.43420.7%6.5%25.4%96.4112.713.6%59.1%47.0%
90 days74234.293.342.558.395.40821.8%6.4%24.6%93.0112.713.9%51.5%43.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.15133.3%0.0%16.7%94.3100.90.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1017.294.294.765.435.43517.6%0.0%17.6%92.5111.421.4%57.1%35.7%
Last 30 G1938.278.297.611.409.42218.4%2.6%23.7%90.9111.416.7%46.7%40.0%
90 days4899.292.296.458.335.33027.3%1.0%24.8%92.2111.49.9%50.7%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.150.190.200.179.23633.3%4.8%27.5%91.9110.47.7%38.5%46.2%
Last 15 G1566.349.364.651.439.40324.2%3.0%27.6%94.6111.414.6%56.2%43.8%
Last 30 G30130.308.349.583.410.43020.0%5.4%24.9%94.7112.714.6%55.2%44.8%
90 days79333.293.328.527.377.38523.4%4.8%24.6%92.8112.712.7%51.3%42.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 236 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 26%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 8%
Jackson Merrill · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches71trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.372 / .398running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.4110.4211.630Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.879.213.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.394.923.234Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.578.3-27.044Force out
Sep 23RHPSplitter93.076.2-37.077Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball80.2100.9-2.371Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.079.8-37.048Out
Sep 22LHPSlider87.887.827.082Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.791.127.118Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.9106.7-27.110Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup88.586.4-11.142Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.9104.2-8.347Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19511013
Sep 18414102
Sep 17413001
Sep 16533002
Sep 15422000
Sep 14533001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jackson Merrill: every projection we've made →