MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 1Lars Nootbaar
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.319wOBA vs RHP.325xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .357 vs league .360 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .356 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .357 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .256 vs league .258 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .324 vs league .327 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .323 vs league .325 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Lars Nootbaar: wOBA .307 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Lars Nootbaar's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Lars Nootbaar's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 73.5 mph at 16°Out: 79.4 mph at 3°Single: 106.8 mph at 13°Out: 81.6 mph at -11°Out: 93.4 mph at -33°Single: 99.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.3 mph at -19°Double: 99.6 mph at 23°Single: 105.6 mph at 6°Out: 70.7 mph at 71°Out: 89.9 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 5°Out: 97.7 mph at -16°Out: 82.9 mph at 9°Out: 68.7 mph at 11°Out: 101.7 mph at 55°Out: 93.1 mph at 26°Single: 106.3 mph at -5°Home run: 100.5 mph at 32°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Single: 76.1 mph at 21°Single: 95.8 mph at 0°Out: 100.8 mph at -9°Single: 107.1 mph at 8°Out: 81.1 mph at -15°Out: 109.1 mph at 9°Out: 44.2 mph at -70°Out: 87.1 mph at 42°Out: 101.8 mph at 33°Single: 78.7 mph at 11°Single: 102.5 mph at -10°Out: 93.8 mph at 24°Single: 104.8 mph at 12°Out: 85.3 mph at 36°Double: 99.6 mph at 20°Out: 92.5 mph at 82°Out: 99.4 mph at 14°Out: 96.6 mph at -16°Out: 92.6 mph at 25°Single: 105.9 mph at 9°
50% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.3%59.2%+1.1
2+ total bases36.7%35.2%+1.5
Home run12.3%10.5%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Lars Nootbaar against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.357.36015.1%18.5%28About league average vs these
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.356.35812.2%15.3%61About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.357.35912.2%15.2%57About league average vs these
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.256.25820.2%27.8%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.324.32719.1%25.3%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.323.32518.5%24.5%9About league average vs these
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.307.30921.2%27.6%8About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lars Nootbaar · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.278.278.333.269.21433.3%0.0%28.1%89.9106.80.0%41.7%25.0%
Last 15 G1545.300.356.400.335.29128.9%8.9%19.2%92.1109.13.6%50.0%42.9%
Last 30 G3092.293.359.500.371.36619.6%9.8%15.9%93.3110.59.2%53.8%44.6%
90 days67212.249.340.384.328.33319.3%12.3%16.3%92.1110.56.2%50.3%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.4680.0%0.0%0.0%92.592.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G46.000.200.000.180.49716.7%16.7%9.1%81.4101.825.0%25.0%0.0%
Last 30 G711.125.300.125.250.46427.3%18.2%23.5%85.8101.833.3%33.3%16.7%
90 days1834.071.212.071.167.28326.5%14.7%24.5%84.5106.510.0%30.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 10%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.263.263.316.255.22831.6%0.0%27.3%90.1106.80.0%38.5%23.1%
Last 15 G1551.273.340.364.319.31227.5%9.8%18.0%90.8109.16.2%46.9%37.5%
Last 30 G30103.278.353.467.359.37620.4%10.7%16.7%92.7110.511.3%52.1%42.3%
90 days69246.225.322.343.306.32620.3%12.6%17.4%91.2110.56.7%47.9%34.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Lars Nootbaar · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.301 / .331running 30 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.773.516.660Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.479.43.225Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.4106.813.863Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.481.6-11.086Out
Sep 24RHPFastball91.193.4-33.063Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.199.14.457Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.981.3-19.056Out
Sep 20RHPSinker93.699.623.683Double
Sep 20RHPFastball94.1105.66.553Single
Sep 19RHPCutter94.870.771.003Out
Sep 19RHPCutter95.989.9-37.047Out
Sep 18LHPSinker86.892.55.468Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24633000
Sep 23300002
Sep 20323001
Sep 19300001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16500011
Sep 15600014
Sep 14536101
Sep 13322000
Sep 12200000

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Lars Nootbaar bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Lars Nootbaar with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.1%41.0%
Whiff%17.4%21.3%
Contact%82.6%78.7%
Chase%36.9%39.6%
wOBA.272.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.1%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.306
K%20.4%
BB%11.9%
Whiff%7.2%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%32.1%
Avg EV91.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

208 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.325against pitches like his
RV/100-0.31
Hard-hit%33.5%
K%19.7%
BB%12.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lars Nootbaar: every projection we've made →