MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 6Nolan Arenado
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.353wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .327 vs league .316 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .367 vs league .355 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .365 vs league .353 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .268 vs league .257 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .298 vs league .287 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .283 vs league .272 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Nolan Arenado: wOBA .304 vs league .292 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nolan Arenado's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nolan Arenado's last 40 balls in playHit (22)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 91.6 mph at 18°Single: 73.3 mph at 47°Home run: 102.5 mph at 30°Out: 56.1 mph at -46°Single: 98.0 mph at 11°Out: 81.5 mph at -7°Double: 107.3 mph at 17°Home run: 106.2 mph at 25°Single: 103.8 mph at 12°Out: 65.6 mph at 54°Out: 96.3 mph at 41°Out: 87.4 mph at -21°Home run: 100.3 mph at 36°Single: 68.6 mph at 23°Out: 88.5 mph at 63°Single: 82.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at 28°Out: 84.1 mph at 51°Single: 73.3 mph at 41°Single: 79.3 mph at 18°Single: 91.0 mph at 9°Home run: 105.7 mph at 21°Out: 83.5 mph at 55°Out: 62.4 mph at -53°Out: 86.5 mph at 41°Single: 79.2 mph at 7°Out: 85.8 mph at 17°Single: 74.2 mph at 9°Out: 78.2 mph at 83°Out: 96.1 mph at 2°Home run: 94.4 mph at 30°Double: 105.4 mph at 1°Out: 93.3 mph at 38°Double: 101.4 mph at 21°Home run: 97.7 mph at 32°Home run: 106.5 mph at 28°Out: 96.2 mph at -6°Single: 82.0 mph at 13°Out: 74.5 mph at 56°Out: 108.5 mph at 15°
38% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot55% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.1%60.6%+1.5
2+ total bases36.6%34.9%+1.7
Home run14.3%12.8%+1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nolan Arenado against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.327.31624.0%25.4%31About league average vs these
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.367.35511.5%12.2%54About league average vs these
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.365.35318.3%19.4%47About league average vs these
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.268.25729.5%31.6%7Little history vs this shape
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.298.28729.5%31.6%46About league average vs these
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.283.27229.2%31.1%29About league average vs these
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.304.29227.7%29.3%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nolan Arenado · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.389.389.722.522.34133.3%0.0%31.0%84.7106.216.7%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1545.375.444.625.479.37822.2%8.9%24.4%86.9108.510.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G3088.262.322.475.359.29019.3%6.8%23.6%83.7108.56.3%22.2%33.3%
90 days71218.250.323.485.354.29119.7%8.7%22.3%83.9108.56.5%28.8%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 16%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.750.7501.7501.038.5920.0%0.0%12.5%98.2107.325.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1118.562.6111.438.811.48211.1%11.1%27.5%92.2107.314.3%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1835.364.400.788.494.31717.1%5.7%27.0%88.4107.37.4%37.0%33.3%
90 days4076.319.382.739.464.29823.7%9.2%24.4%88.4107.39.8%39.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 14%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.455.455.909.616.38627.3%0.0%27.0%88.1107.318.8%43.8%50.0%
Last 15 G1563.429.492.857.574.40719.0%9.5%25.4%88.6108.511.4%38.6%50.0%
Last 30 G30123.292.344.566.398.29818.7%6.5%24.7%85.1108.56.7%26.7%33.3%
90 days73294.268.338.551.383.29320.7%8.8%22.9%85.0108.57.4%31.4%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 204 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 15%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 16%
Nolan Arenado · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .310running 71 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run6/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider86.291.618.560Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.673.347.174Single
Sep 24RHPFastball93.7102.5301.170Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter90.056.1-46.159Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.098.011.821Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.381.5-7.089Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball81.6107.317.684Double
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.5106.2251.766Home run
Sep 22LHPSinker90.3103.812.942Single
Sep 22RHPFastball95.865.654.015Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper84.096.341.053Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper82.787.4-21.048Fielder's choice
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24536101
Sep 23411002
Sep 22537101
Sep 20414101
Sep 19422001
Sep 18422000
Sep 16425100
Sep 15311000
Sep 14411003
Sep 13426100

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Nolan Arenado bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nolan Arenado with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%42.4%
Whiff%21.6%22.2%
Contact%78.4%77.8%
Chase%45.3%39.8%
wOBA.230.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.0%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.356
K%20.1%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.6%
Avg EV85.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

215 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/1001.10
Hard-hit%21.2%
K%20.4%
BB%8.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nolan Arenado: every projection we've made →