MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 9Brian Navarreto
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ATLTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Brian Navarreto's last 33 balls in playHit (7)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.1 mph at 32°Double: 95.7 mph at 27°Double: 101.2 mph at 7°Out: 101.4 mph at 0°Out: 88.4 mph at 38°Out: 75.5 mph at 78°Single: 76.8 mph at 10°Out: 61.7 mph at -20°Out: 70.0 mph at -28°Out: 84.0 mph at 38°Out: 97.4 mph at 50°Out: 106.4 mph at -3°Out: 31.6 mph at -25°Out: 73.7 mph at -2°Out: 87.9 mph at 67°Out: 107.7 mph at -25°Single: 94.2 mph at 5°Home run: 103.4 mph at 23°Out: 79.7 mph at -49°Out: 72.7 mph at -10°Out: 6.3 mph at -2°Out: 55.9 mph at -80°Out: 78.6 mph at 23°Out: 66.0 mph at 40°Out: 85.6 mph at 26°Double: 104.0 mph at 20°Single: 87.2 mph at -5°Out: 82.5 mph at 67°Out: 83.2 mph at 86°Out: 66.9 mph at -43°Out: 93.2 mph at 38°Out: 25.4 mph at 14°Out: 86.9 mph at -40°
24% hit 95+ mph24% in the sweet spot21% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit49.4%50.3%-0.9
2+ total bases24.5%25.7%-1.2
Home run7.1%8.3%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brian Navarreto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.00450.0%0.0%28.6%75.575.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G913.091.167.091.150.13138.5%7.7%21.4%56.976.80.0%0.0%14.3%
Last 30 G1217.071.133.071.133.12629.4%5.9%18.2%62.493.20.0%0.0%18.2%
90 days1217.071.133.071.133.12629.4%5.9%18.2%62.493.20.0%0.0%18.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 18%Fly ball 9%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.571.357.23228.6%0.0%35.3%96.0101.40.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1127.160.185.360.226.20037.0%0.0%35.4%90.3107.76.2%43.8%25.0%
Last 30 G1638.171.211.343.236.19936.8%0.0%34.5%88.1107.79.1%36.4%27.3%
90 days1638.171.211.343.236.19936.8%0.0%34.5%88.1107.79.1%36.4%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 14%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.222.222.444.278.18233.3%0.0%33.3%92.6101.40.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1540.139.179.278.203.17937.5%2.5%31.2%80.1107.74.3%30.4%21.7%
Last 30 G2255.143.189.265.207.17934.5%1.8%30.0%79.5107.76.1%24.2%24.2%
90 days2255.143.189.265.207.17934.5%1.8%30.0%79.5107.76.1%24.2%24.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 33 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 15%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
FormNormal
Contact rating0Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.195 / .183results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball93.093.132.178Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.795.727.451Double
Sep 8LHPChangeup86.1101.27.589Double
Sep 8LHPSinker92.0101.40.386Out
Sep 4LHPSplitter81.688.438.023Out
Sep 1RHPFastball92.575.578.008Out
Aug 31RHPCutter86.676.810.301Single
Aug 31RHPCutter87.561.7-20.037Out
Aug 30LHPSinker91.070.0-28.035Out
Aug 25LHPSinker96.884.038.014Sac fly
Aug 25LHPCutter90.797.450.003Out
Aug 25LHPFastball95.5106.4-3.370Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24312001
Sep 18100001
Sep 8212000
Sep 4200001
Sep 1100000
Aug 31411002
Aug 30200001
Aug 29100001
Aug 25500001
Aug 23200002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brian Navarreto: every projection we've made →