MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 3DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.335wOBA vs RHP.335xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MIAJack Ralston
Throws rightBTB Stuff 98Stable
2.3projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Jack Ralston's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 52% usage, 82.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. DaShawn Keirsey Jr.: wOBA .263 vs league .284 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 52%Fastball: 26% usage, 93.7 mph, +5.4″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. DaShawn Keirsey Jr.: wOBA .339 vs league .361 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 26%Slider: 22% usage, 85.1 mph, -1.6″ arm side, -0.2″ rise. DaShawn Keirsey Jr.: wOBA .312 vs league .333 (pitcher's edge).Slider 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is DaShawn Keirsey Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

DaShawn Keirsey Jr.'s last 1 balls in playHit (1)Out (0)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 87.8 mph at 15°
0% hit 95+ mph100% in the sweet spot100% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.5%54.1%-0.6
2+ total bases30.4%30.8%-0.4
Home run7.7%8.2%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where DaShawn Keirsey Jr. hits
Where they meet

.310 xwOBA for DaShawn Keirsey Jr. in the spots Jack Ralston throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .306 (+4 points). His best spot against righties is up and left, outside, and Jack Ralston puts 9% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jack Ralston · where he throws to left-handed hitters
8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing9%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing13%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing19%
All · 179 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%16% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters16%16% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters16%
Splitter · 94 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%21% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Fastball · 43 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%24% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters24%
Slider · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

DaShawn Keirsey Jr. · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .307 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .307 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .342 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .342 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .386 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .386 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .321 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .321 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .351 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .351 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .292 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .292 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .419 shrunk (raw .917 on 1 PA) · league .377 · 1 pitches seen.419xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 0 pitches seen
vs RHP · 1 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 22%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 20%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 10%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 9%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 11%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 14%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 13%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 28%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 24%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 32%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 49%
vs RHP · 1 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 62%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 72%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 70%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 76%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 70%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 65%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 68%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 60%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 24%100%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 34%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 40%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 32%
vs RHP · 1 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

DaShawn Keirsey Jr. against each of Jack Ralston's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter52%82.4+10″ / +1″.263.28428.2%26.4%3Little history vs this shape
Fastball26%93.7+5″ / +19″.339.36114.7%17.1%22About league average vs these
Slider22%85.1-2″ / -0″.312.33324.1%27.4%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 30 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
90 days111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 100%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 GNo plate appearances
Last 30 GNo plate appearances
90 daysNo plate appearances
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 30 G111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
90 days111.0001.0001.000.900.9170.0%0.0%0.0%87.887.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 1 balls in play
Ground 0%Line drive 100%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.900 / .941running 41 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit1/1
2+ total bases0/1
Home run0/1

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 1 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 12RHPOffspeed37.687.815.917Single
Last 1 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 12111000

Two strikes

Jack Ralston MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Ralston with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter52%53%26.9%26.2%21.3%
Fastball26%30%25.0%25.0%18.3%
Slider22%17%0.0%0.0%21.4%
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
DaShawn Keirsey Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.3%41.3%
Whiff%23.9%21.6%
Contact%76.1%78.4%
Chase%36.4%39.4%
wOBA.226.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.6%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.212
K%32.2%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%22.5%
Avg EV86.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

1 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/1001.40
Hard-hit%25.1%
K%22.2%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack RalstonRHP · MIA vs ATL2 days' rest · short rest
2.3projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.1 batters over 2.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 80.0%80%≤34 strikeouts: 11.6%12%45 strikeouts: 5.4%5%56 strikeouts: 2.1%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.2%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.6%
BB%11.6%
Whiff%6.5%
Velo85.9
BTB Stuff98
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Splitter52%11082.48.9%
Fastball26%7393.65.6%
Slider22%9885.31.7%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Ralston MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.DaShawn Keirsey Jr.: every projection we've made →