MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 1Drake Baldwin
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Drake Baldwin's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.4 mph at 30°Out: 106.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.9 mph at -10°Out: 104.6 mph at 26°Double: 100.8 mph at 0°Out: 60.2 mph at -82°Out: 94.0 mph at 30°Out: 94.3 mph at 22°Single: 56.8 mph at -80°Single: 105.6 mph at -6°Single: 102.7 mph at 6°Out: 88.5 mph at 45°Single: 65.9 mph at 26°Out: 58.5 mph at 4°Single: 101.6 mph at 3°Double: 107.3 mph at 22°Single: 62.4 mph at 24°Out: 85.8 mph at 44°Double: 105.8 mph at 26°Out: 95.4 mph at -5°Out: 93.1 mph at -13°Out: 99.7 mph at 35°Out: 64.0 mph at -63°Single: 97.3 mph at 6°Out: 58.8 mph at -57°Home run: 107.6 mph at 23°Out: 95.5 mph at 27°Single: 104.1 mph at 5°Single: 92.3 mph at 8°Out: 91.0 mph at 64°Single: 91.8 mph at 16°Out: 90.5 mph at 39°Out: 90.9 mph at 29°Double: 100.3 mph at 30°Out: 88.7 mph at -17°Single: 100.5 mph at 10°Out: 60.6 mph at 67°Double: 101.2 mph at 17°Out: 89.5 mph at 66°Out: 78.1 mph at 27°
45% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.9%70.2%-0.3
2+ total bases43.1%43.7%-0.6
Home run14.3%15.5%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Drake Baldwin · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.429.500.500.447.58418.8%6.2%23.1%90.2107.327.3%54.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1347.390.447.610.450.50612.8%6.4%18.1%89.1107.619.4%44.4%47.2%
Last 30 G2693.381.430.583.435.41721.5%6.5%27.2%90.4108.715.4%44.6%47.7%
90 days70232.346.418.541.421.39918.1%9.5%22.0%92.1109.212.2%51.8%38.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.286.375.429.356.24525.0%12.5%20.0%91.0105.60.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G923.238.304.333.287.27034.8%8.7%22.7%93.2106.40.0%53.8%38.5%
Last 30 G1943.225.279.300.262.25830.2%7.0%27.2%90.6106.40.0%44.4%44.4%
90 days56121.205.264.250.238.30221.5%6.6%23.0%89.9109.53.5%46.5%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 20%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.381.458.476.417.47120.8%8.3%22.4%90.4107.318.8%50.0%43.8%
Last 15 G1570.339.400.516.396.42920.0%7.1%19.5%90.2107.614.3%46.9%44.9%
Last 30 G30136.331.382.492.381.36724.3%6.6%27.2%90.5108.710.9%44.6%46.7%
90 days79353.297.365.438.358.36619.3%8.5%22.3%91.3109.59.2%50.0%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 250 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
Drake Baldwin · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .385running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker89.8104.4301.594Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.6106.615.688Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.094.9-10.152Single
Sep 24RHPCutter89.4104.6261.763Out
Sep 24LHPSinker93.5100.80.386Double
Sep 23LHPFastball91.860.2-82.140Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper82.294.030.236Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper84.094.322.215Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.756.8-80.123Single
Sep 22LHPCutter91.5105.6-6.285Single
Sep 20RHPSinker96.2102.76.603Single
Sep 20RHPSlider85.988.545.006Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24523000
Sep 23500002
Sep 22422010
Sep 20511012
Sep 19534001
Sep 18523011
Sep 16400000
Sep 15525101
Sep 14422011
Sep 13511002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Drake Baldwin: every projection we've made →