MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 2Heriberto Hernández
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · ATLTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%2.4trips vs this hitter
Heriberto Hernández's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 100.8 mph at 37°Out: 84.3 mph at -17°Out: 95.1 mph at -20°Out: 81.1 mph at -49°Out: 101.7 mph at -22°Out: 99.9 mph at 40°Single: 107.5 mph at 6°Out: 94.7 mph at 21°Out: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 94.5 mph at 59°Out: 75.9 mph at 0°Single: 72.3 mph at 35°Out: 94.2 mph at 18°Single: 103.7 mph at 9°Out: 96.6 mph at 43°Single: 98.2 mph at -14°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Single: 85.3 mph at 18°Single: 85.6 mph at 15°Out: 83.3 mph at -31°Out: 74.7 mph at 1°Single: 102.1 mph at -8°Out: 78.8 mph at 32°Out: 74.4 mph at -30°Single: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.5 mph at 73°Out: 60.7 mph at -18°Single: 41.5 mph at -73°Single: 94.8 mph at 14°Out: 103.0 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at -37°Out: 92.5 mph at 31°Out: 85.0 mph at 43°Out: 87.7 mph at -1°Out: 100.9 mph at -23°Out: 104.5 mph at 7°Out: 100.0 mph at 28°Out: 102.5 mph at 43°Single: 93.2 mph at 2°Out: 100.2 mph at 20°
45% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.3%59.7%-1.4
2+ total bases35.1%37.1%-2.0
Home run14.8%17.1%-2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.5
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Heriberto Hernández · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.077.333.077.259.31716.7%27.8%23.3%88.9101.80.0%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1456.213.339.213.295.28526.8%16.1%29.0%88.0104.53.2%32.3%25.8%
Last 30 G2996.225.354.412.369.33626.0%15.6%26.4%87.5109.27.4%35.2%31.5%
90 days73224.214.312.403.339.31330.8%11.6%30.8%89.3109.211.1%45.2%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 126 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 17%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G26.167.167.167.150.25433.3%0.0%27.3%100.8107.50.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G615.133.133.133.120.31820.0%0.0%21.9%100.0107.58.3%83.3%16.7%
Last 30 G1742.211.286.368.289.41316.7%7.1%26.5%94.8111.322.6%54.8%25.8%
90 days4393.247.344.543.378.41821.5%11.8%28.1%93.9111.319.7%47.5%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 16%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.105.292.105.230.30020.8%20.8%24.4%92.6107.50.0%46.2%15.4%
Last 15 G1571.194.296.194.257.29225.4%12.7%27.3%91.3107.54.7%46.5%23.3%
Last 30 G30138.220.333.398.344.36023.2%13.0%26.4%90.2111.312.9%42.4%29.4%
90 days74317.224.322.444.351.34428.1%11.7%30.0%90.8111.313.9%46.0%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 17%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
Heriberto Hernández · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches15trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .360results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball94.4100.837.521Out
Sep 24RHPSinker100.484.3-17.066Force out
Sep 24LHPFastball94.395.1-20.117Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball92.281.1-49.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.1101.7-22.105Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.999.940.303Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.1107.56.584Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper86.694.721.278Out
Sep 20RHPSinker94.0101.8-14.192Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.694.559.033Out
Sep 20RHPFastball100.875.90.100Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.872.335.481Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400020
Sep 22611011
Sep 20400001
Sep 19611022
Sep 18411002
Sep 16544001
Sep 15511001
Sep 14511011
Sep 13411011

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Heriberto Hernández: every projection we've made →