← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · MIA · batting 3Jakob Marsee
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ATLTBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jakob Marsee's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 85.2 mph at 18°Out: 75.0 mph at 47°Out: 94.4 mph at -1°Out: 78.1 mph at 60°Out: 92.3 mph at 40°Single: 93.2 mph at 12°Out: 60.6 mph at 78°Out: 90.0 mph at 82°Single: 94.7 mph at 11°Single: 71.2 mph at 37°Out: 70.8 mph at -19°Single: 99.7 mph at 2°Single: 84.1 mph at 18°Out: 88.1 mph at -7°Home run: 103.9 mph at 29°Double: 96.6 mph at 21°Out: 59.1 mph at 79°Out: 72.0 mph at 45°Home run: 96.3 mph at 30°Out: 77.4 mph at 29°Single: 89.1 mph at 12°Triple: 96.3 mph at 24°Out: 97.5 mph at 46°Out: 76.0 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 73°Single: 40.6 mph at -61°Out: 97.6 mph at -27°Out: 29.7 mph at -24°Out: 64.9 mph at -22°Single: 100.8 mph at 14°Out: 97.8 mph at -29°Single: 74.3 mph at 23°Out: 99.2 mph at 65°Single: 67.5 mph at 12°Single: 101.3 mph at 5°Single: 53.0 mph at 38°Out: 95.7 mph at 3°Double: 86.4 mph at 17°Single: 94.5 mph at 15°Out: 90.8 mph at 10°
30% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%62.1%-0.9
2+ total bases32.5%33.8%-1.4
Home run6.9%8.2%-1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jakob Marsee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.182.308.182.246.23123.1%15.4%24.0%79.194.70.0%0.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1542.378.452.649.469.34314.3%11.9%14.9%83.9103.93.2%32.3%45.2%
Last 30 G3083.348.458.609.467.37714.5%15.7%13.7%87.0108.75.3%36.8%50.9%
90 days69209.271.368.453.369.32314.8%12.4%12.5%86.5108.74.1%33.8%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 28%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.571.500.486.44828.6%14.3%6.2%93.199.70.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1121.412.500.412.430.37228.6%4.8%13.2%78.399.70.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 30 G1939.290.421.387.375.33528.2%7.7%17.6%82.9100.10.0%28.6%42.9%
90 days3969.250.409.308.351.34526.1%13.0%19.3%82.5104.10.0%36.1%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 33%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.294.400.294.330.30725.0%15.0%17.1%83.899.70.0%8.3%25.0%
Last 15 G1563.389.468.574.456.35319.0%9.5%14.3%82.3103.92.3%27.9%41.9%
Last 30 G30122.330.446.540.438.36418.9%13.1%15.1%85.9108.73.8%34.6%48.7%
90 days71278.266.378.421.365.32817.6%12.6%14.3%85.8108.73.3%34.2%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 184 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 29%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 13%
Jakob Marsee · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches37trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.358 / .333running 25 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball94.385.218.855Single
Sep 24RHPFastball100.475.047.144Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.794.4-1.316Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.578.160.008Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.592.340.019Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.793.212.836Single
Sep 20RHPCutter88.160.678.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.890.082.003Out
Sep 19RHPFastball95.994.711.802Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter85.771.237.572Single
Sep 19RHPSlider88.470.8-19.050Out
Sep 19LHPSlider85.499.72.432Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411010
Sep 23400003
Sep 22311001
Sep 20400011
Sep 19533010
Sep 18411011
Sep 16426110
Sep 15400002
Sep 14438100
Sep 13411000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jakob Marsee: every projection we've made →