Hitter · ATL · batting 5Mauricio Dubón
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
1+ hit+0.1 pts matchup
2+ total bases-0.2 pts matchup
Home run-0.5 pts matchup
25% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 67.7% | 67.7% | +0.1 |
| 2+ total bases | 35.2% | 35.3% | -0.2 |
| Home run | 3.9% | 4.3% | -0.5 |
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.2
Park-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.2
Park-0.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen+0.0
Park-0.5
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightMauricio Dubón · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 14 | .333 | .385 | .333 | .375 | .365 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 77.6 | 105.6 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 55.6% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 48 | .366 | .426 | .463 | .404 | .384 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 13.4% | 87.9 | 105.6 | 5.6% | 38.9% | 44.4% |
| Last 30 G | 29 | 91 | .329 | .378 | .427 | .366 | .334 | 11.0% | 5.5% | 14.4% | 85.1 | 105.6 | 4.2% | 27.8% | 40.3% |
| 90 days | 72 | 217 | .289 | .341 | .371 | .330 | .315 | 10.1% | 6.5% | 14.5% | 85.4 | 105.9 | 2.3% | 28.4% | 36.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 22%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 4 | 8 | .375 | .375 | .500 | .381 | .044 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 77.2 | 93.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 15 G | 10 | 17 | .375 | .412 | .438 | .379 | .202 | 5.9% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 80.4 | 99.4 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Last 30 G | 19 | 33 | .312 | .333 | .375 | .315 | .205 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.3% | 81.6 | 100.6 | 0.0% | 16.1% | 19.4% |
| 90 days | 45 | 88 | .277 | .287 | .373 | .312 | .243 | 6.8% | 2.3% | 10.4% | 86.6 | 105.6 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 33.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 22 | .350 | .381 | .400 | .378 | .237 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 10.0% | 77.4 | 105.6 | 0.0% | 6.2% | 31.2% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 65 | .368 | .422 | .456 | .398 | .335 | 10.8% | 6.2% | 12.6% | 85.7 | 105.6 | 3.9% | 29.4% | 37.3% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 124 | .325 | .366 | .412 | .352 | .299 | 8.9% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 84.1 | 105.6 | 2.9% | 24.3% | 34.0% |
| 90 days | 75 | 305 | .286 | .326 | .371 | .324 | .294 | 9.2% | 5.2% | 13.3% | 85.8 | 105.9 | 1.6% | 28.9% | 35.9% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 256 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
xwOBA30.294
Avg EV2685.8
Max EV10105.9
Barrel%41.6%
Hard-hit%1328.9%
Sweet-spot%5435.9%
K%989.2%
BB%155.2%
Whiff%9113.3%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
FormNormal
Contact rating34Below average
Last 100 pitches38steady
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .301running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit12/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run0/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 89.6 | 93.7 | 35 | .080 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.4 | 85.2 | 41 | .025 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 90.2 | 105.6 | 10 | .867 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 86.0 | 71.5 | 13 | .278 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 96.1 | 28.5 | -3 | – | Sac bunt |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Sweeper | 81.9 | 52.0 | 70 | .003 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Changeup | 86.1 | 69.2 | -9 | .047 | Single |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Fastball | 92.3 | 92.9 | 44 | .013 | Out |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Cutter | 88.4 | 93.1 | -11 | .162 | Double play |
| Sep 22 | LHP | Changeup | 86.4 | 71.5 | -3 | .061 | Single |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Cutter | 86.6 | 62.4 | 9 | .140 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Sweeper | 82.1 | 81.0 | -24 | .058 | Double |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sep 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 18 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The hitter
season-level talent readTalent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–
Against right-handers, last 90 days
0 PAwOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–
Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
The starter he faces
Starter not announced.
The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mauricio Dubón: every projection we've made →