MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 7Mike Yastrzemski
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Mike Yastrzemski's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 93.4 mph at 6°Out: 96.0 mph at 37°Out: 102.5 mph at 19°Out: 91.9 mph at 65°Out: 97.4 mph at 8°Single: 96.1 mph at 13°Home run: 101.4 mph at 36°Out: 102.8 mph at 5°Single: 88.5 mph at 6°Home run: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 64.9 mph at -13°Out: 94.8 mph at 6°Out: 81.4 mph at -22°Out: 56.1 mph at -40°Out: 91.5 mph at 0°Out: 101.1 mph at -13°Out: 79.8 mph at 70°Home run: 104.9 mph at 24°Out: 60.3 mph at -50°Out: 89.1 mph at 1°Single: 73.1 mph at 34°Single: 96.6 mph at 10°Single: 91.8 mph at -8°Double: 92.1 mph at 22°Out: 90.8 mph at 56°Out: 82.4 mph at 39°Out: 104.8 mph at 19°Out: 81.3 mph at -34°Out: 58.2 mph at 38°Out: 99.4 mph at 22°Single: 73.2 mph at 28°Double: 81.6 mph at 24°Single: 41.1 mph at -64°Out: 89.0 mph at 2°Out: 96.8 mph at 31°Out: 98.6 mph at 37°Out: 97.0 mph at 5°Out: 85.1 mph at 41°Out: 105.1 mph at -18°Out: 66.9 mph at -61°
40% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%55.7%-0.1
2+ total bases32.8%33.1%-0.3
Home run11.3%12.1%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mike Yastrzemski · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.333.429.583.436.37921.4%14.3%20.8%96.3102.80.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1543.263.349.447.350.32918.6%11.6%16.9%87.8104.93.3%36.7%30.0%
Last 30 G3082.236.329.347.307.31123.2%12.2%17.6%88.5105.11.9%39.6%28.3%
90 days64170.223.312.426.326.34723.5%11.8%19.7%90.1107.08.2%43.6%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 26%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0004.0002.000.7760.0%0.0%33.3%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G22.500.5002.0001.000.38850.0%0.0%20.0%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G33.333.3331.333.667.39533.3%0.0%28.6%94.2101.40.0%50.0%0.0%
90 days66.667.6671.167.783.32216.7%0.0%18.2%73.4101.40.0%40.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 80%Line drive 0%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.385.467.846.540.40520.0%13.3%22.2%96.8102.80.0%70.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1545.275.356.525.379.33220.0%11.1%17.0%88.3104.93.2%38.7%29.0%
Last 30 G3085.240.329.387.320.31423.5%11.8%18.1%88.7105.11.8%40.0%27.3%
90 days64176.240.324.455.342.34623.3%11.4%19.7%89.4107.07.8%43.5%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 115 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 10%
Mike Yastrzemski · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches70trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .362running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.693.46.477Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.037.209Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.1102.519.489Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball86.991.965.014Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.197.48.627Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.296.113.907Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.0101.436.776Home run
Sep 19RHPCutter87.8102.85.558Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.488.56.414Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.898.439.213Home run
Sep 18RHPFastball92.064.9-13.044Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup85.694.86.484Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511011
Sep 23100000
Sep 22100010
Sep 20425101
Sep 19425101
Sep 18400002
Sep 16100000
Sep 15400000
Sep 14214110
Sep 13400002

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mike Yastrzemski: every projection we've made →