← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 2Ronald Acuña Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Ronald Acuña Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.1 mph at 24°Single: 100.5 mph at -25°Single: 103.6 mph at 21°Out: 83.4 mph at 31°Out: 103.5 mph at 39°Out: 82.0 mph at 30°Single: 42.1 mph at -37°Out: 49.3 mph at -7°Single: 90.4 mph at 13°Out: 72.7 mph at -5°Home run: 105.1 mph at 26°Out: 60.6 mph at -24°Out: 69.3 mph at 73°Home run: 111.0 mph at 21°Out: 82.6 mph at 48°Double: 105.8 mph at 24°Single: 66.9 mph at 27°Home run: 105.8 mph at 23°Out: 75.6 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 48°Out: 93.6 mph at -20°Out: 55.0 mph at 23°Out: 104.1 mph at 3°Out: 75.4 mph at 34°Out: 85.7 mph at 59°Single: 94.7 mph at 14°Single: 77.5 mph at 11°Out: 95.0 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 14°Home run: 108.0 mph at 44°Single: 77.0 mph at -51°Out: 49.4 mph at 10°Double: 106.6 mph at 13°Out: 85.6 mph at 43°Out: 94.4 mph at -17°Out: 88.6 mph at 70°Out: 62.2 mph at 1°Out: 44.3 mph at 56°Out: 66.7 mph at -9°Out: 86.4 mph at 67°
33% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.6%66.1%-0.5
2+ total bases41.6%42.7%-1.1
Home run16.8%18.4%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ronald Acuña Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G418.400.500.800.539.55611.1%16.7%13.8%84.2111.030.8%46.2%38.5%
Last 15 G1346.310.370.571.402.44710.9%8.7%15.7%85.6111.016.2%37.8%37.8%
Last 30 G2795.329.389.588.420.40217.9%9.5%24.9%88.5111.913.2%42.6%35.3%
90 days49162.262.315.483.356.36123.5%6.8%27.8%90.4111.911.7%48.6%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 111 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1030.0%0.0%37.5%82.783.40.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G918.250.333.500.358.31527.8%11.1%37.2%86.1108.09.1%36.4%54.5%
Last 30 G1836.250.333.406.328.31719.4%11.1%26.2%87.7115.28.0%36.0%48.0%
90 days3163.286.365.536.387.36617.5%11.1%23.0%87.2115.28.9%37.8%42.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.353.450.706.485.51110.0%15.0%18.9%84.0111.026.7%40.0%46.7%
Last 15 G1564.293.359.552.390.41015.6%9.4%23.0%85.7111.014.6%37.5%41.7%
Last 30 G30131.308.374.538.395.37818.3%9.9%25.3%88.3115.211.8%40.9%38.7%
90 days52225.268.329.498.365.36321.8%8.0%26.4%89.4115.210.9%45.5%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 27%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
Ronald Acuña Jr. · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .369results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker90.2104.1241.367Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.7100.5-25.091Single
Sep 24RHPSlider81.7103.621.954Single
Sep 24LHPFastball98.083.431.086Out
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0103.539.615Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.582.030.120Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.642.1-37.282Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.249.3-7.129Out
Sep 19RHPSinker93.490.413.882Single
Sep 19RHPSinker92.972.7-5.057Double play
Sep 19RHPFastball96.9105.1261.763Home run
Sep 18RHPSinker94.760.6-24.055Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24522000
Sep 22100000
Sep 20411011
Sep 19525120
Sep 18514101
Sep 16423002
Sep 15514101
Sep 14500011
Sep 13522001
Sep 12436110

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ronald Acuña Jr.: every projection we've made →