MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CIN · batting 8Juan Brito
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.317wOBA vs RHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.3projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 46% usage, 94.4 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +19.4″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .341 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 46%Splitter: 29% usage, 83.2 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .285 vs league .299 (about even).Splitter 29%Slider: 25% usage, 87.8 mph, +3.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Juan Brito: wOBA .343 vs league .357 (about even).Slider 25%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Juan Brito's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Juan Brito's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.3 mph at -11°Single: 81.3 mph at 8°Single: 102.6 mph at 4°Out: 73.0 mph at -7°Single: 96.3 mph at 15°Home run: 102.3 mph at 28°Out: 72.5 mph at 15°Out: 82.2 mph at 20°Out: 84.2 mph at 25°Out: 82.6 mph at 45°Out: 84.2 mph at -31°Out: 66.8 mph at -49°Out: 101.1 mph at -11°Out: 80.6 mph at 81°Single: 98.9 mph at 22°Single: 104.3 mph at 5°Single: 63.6 mph at 46°Out: 79.2 mph at 68°Out: 57.0 mph at 69°Single: 100.8 mph at 2°Out: 88.7 mph at 37°Single: 86.9 mph at 14°Out: 95.9 mph at -12°Out: 85.3 mph at 36°Out: 90.6 mph at -10°Double: 90.8 mph at 25°Home run: 105.5 mph at 30°Out: 75.6 mph at 10°Single: 100.9 mph at -3°Single: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 71.6 mph at 0°Out: 81.9 mph at 9°Out: 86.8 mph at 50°Double: 102.4 mph at 24°Single: 76.2 mph at 21°Single: 77.4 mph at 19°Out: 62.6 mph at 7°Out: 90.6 mph at 30°Home run: 95.0 mph at 41°Out: 87.8 mph at 50°
35% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.8%60.1%-2.4
2+ total bases33.6%35.7%-2.1
Home run10.9%12.2%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Juan Brito hits
Where they meet

.296 xwOBA for Juan Brito in the spots Trey Yesavage throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-12 points).Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Trey Yesavage · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing3%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing17%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%22% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing22%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 75% per swing9%
All · 367 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%22% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters22%14% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters14%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 192 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%44% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters44%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Splitter · 139 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%17% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters17%36% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters36%
Slider · 36 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Juan Brito · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .030 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seen.239xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 4 pitches seen.263xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .263 · 3 pitches seenxwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .268 on 2 PA) · league .342 · 7 pitches seen.331xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .332 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 11 pitches seen.370xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .018 on 2 PA) · league .321 · 7 pitches seen.278xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .376 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.318xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .007 on 2 PA) · league .351 · 6 pitches seen.302xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .198 on 1 PA) · league .292 · 6 pitches seen.285xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .349 on 2 PA) · league .377 · 13 pitches seen.373xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .010 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 4 pitches seen.254xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .251 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 24 pitches seen.259xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 20%50%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 10%20%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 14%40%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 28%25%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 24%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 32%29%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 49%25%
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 62%100%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 100% of 7 pitches · league 70%100%Swings at 56% of 9 pitches · league 65%56%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 31% of 13 pitches · league 24%31%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 34%50%Swings at 29% of 24 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 22% of 18 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 116 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Juan Brito against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball46%94.4+4″ / +19″.341.35517.2%17.3%10About league average vs these
Splitter29%83.2+12″ / +7″.285.29929.4%26.7%4Little history vs this shape
Slider25%87.8+3″ / +5″.343.35721.5%22.2%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Juan Brito · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.364.364.364.327.2279.1%0.0%11.1%92.1104.30.0%50.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
Last 30 G1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
90 days1027.240.296.360.293.20314.8%7.4%18.0%86.9104.30.0%33.3%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 5%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.375.375.750.475.48512.5%0.0%25.0%79.5102.314.3%28.6%57.1%
Last 15 G924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
Last 30 G924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
90 days924.478.458.826.533.49912.5%0.0%19.2%86.6105.519.0%33.3%61.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 24%Line drive 38%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.368.368.526.389.33610.5%0.0%17.0%86.9104.35.9%41.2%41.2%
Last 15 G1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
Last 30 G1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
90 days1451.354.373.583.406.34213.7%3.9%18.6%86.8105.59.5%33.3%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 21%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 7%
FormHot
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches71trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.409 / .364running 45 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker95.0101.3-11.198Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter91.281.38.306Single
Sep 25RHPCutter94.4102.64.531Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.773.0-7.064Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup92.796.315.803Single
Sep 23LHPFastball96.9102.3281.330Home run
Sep 23LHPSlider82.972.515.483Out
Sep 19LHPSlider85.482.220.816Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper85.684.225.175Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.082.645.010Out
Sep 17RHPCurveball78.684.2-31.044Double play
Sep 17LHPSinker97.066.8-49.204Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422001
Sep 23425100
Sep 19400001
Sep 17400000
Sep 16333000
Sep 15311000
Sep 14311000
Sep 13412001
Sep 12436100
Sep 9400001

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.3%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%21.3%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.4%
Juan Brito bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Juan Brito with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.4%41.3%
Whiff%20.1%21.6%
Contact%79.9%78.4%
Chase%35.4%39.4%
wOBA.236.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%20.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%21.1%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.3%
Avg EV88.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

27 PA
wOBA.317
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-0.21
Hard-hit%26.1%
K%19.4%
BB%6.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN5 days' rest
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.3%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 78% (red bars) · under: 22%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Juan Brito: every projection we've made →