CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026

The game

CIN runs4.3win 52%

TOR runs4.2win 48%

Total8.4book line 7.5

No run, 1st inning52%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 62°F · Crosswind · roof retractable
Park factor: Runs 102 · HR 105 100 = average
Schedule: CIN day-after-night; TOR day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CIN starter

Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR

3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings

Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.5%

BB%7.8%

Whiff%7.1%

Velo89.5

BTB Stuff90

Location107

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Sinker29%8793.81.9%

Slider27%9885.615.4%

Changeup19%9186.95.0%

Fastball18%7994.24.7%

Curveball6%9680.83.2%

Other0%––0.0%

Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	60	17%	8%	28%	.456
Sep 15	91	18%	8%	23%	.382
Sep 9	72	21%	6%	42%	.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Nathan Lukes14%

2Vladimir Guerrero Jr.17%

3Kazuma Okamoto24%

4George Springer17%

5Josh Smith27%

6Andrés Giménez18%

7Brandon Valenzuela27%

8Myles Straw14%

9Ernie Clement11%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

TOR starter

Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN

5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings

Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%25.0%

BB%11.1%

Whiff%13.5%

Velo89.4

BTB Stuff92

Location104

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball48%8494.310.1%

Splitter28%10483.016.3%

Slider24%9486.917.8%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Jul 29	97	15%	10%	12%	.214
Jul 24	93	50%	18%	22%	.411
Jul 19	95	38%	20%	17%	.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Carlos Jorge26%

2Elly De La Cruz26%

3Sal Stewart21%

4Tyler Stephenson30%

5JJ Bleday23%

6Eugenio Suárez33%

7Héctor Rodríguez24%

8Matt McLain31%

9Ke'Bryan Hayes25%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineuppitch-mix battle

Trey Yesavage's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Trey Yesavage's pitches					CIN lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	48%	94.3	84	10.1%	1.33	.346	10.4%	28.1%	+0.11
Splitter	28%	83.0	104	16.3%	-1.30	.337	16.6%	11.9%	+0.70
Slider	24%	86.9	94	17.8%	0.77	.284	17.0%	24.9%	-0.97

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineuppitch-mix battle

Rhett Lowder's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Rhett Lowder's pitches					TOR lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sinker	29%	93.8	87	1.9%	0.69	.348	4.9%	31.1%	+0.43
Slider	27%	85.6	98	15.4%	-2.21	.326	12.8%	25.0%	+0.73
Changeup	19%	86.9	91	5.0%	-0.90	.219	15.0%	14.4%	-1.12
Fastball	18%	94.2	79	4.7%	-1.96	.331	7.9%	27.5%	+0.57
Curveball	6%	80.8	96	3.2%	-2.75	.286	12.8%	15.2%	+0.07

Bullpens

Reds bullpen#27 of 30

K%21.0%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.7%

SwStr%9.3%

wOBA allowed.349

Arms available19 / 19

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Blue Jays bullpen#9 of 30

K%25.3%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%13.8%

SwStr%10.7%

wOBA allowed.294

Arms available20 / 20

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+8 pts

Sinker-6 pts

Fastball+2 pts

Changeup-5 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Sweeper+0 pts

Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	27%	35%	27.3%	21.0%	21.0%
Sinker	30%	24%	1.9%	14.3%	16.9%
Fastball	18%	20%	11.1%	9.9%	18.0%
Changeup	20%	15%	9.1%	9.4%	18.6%
Curveball	5%	6%	11.1%	10.0%	20.1%
Sweeper	0%	0%	100.0%	100.0%	19.3%

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-5 pts

Splitter+8 pts

Slider-3 pts

Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	49%	44%	14.8%	17.4%	18.0%
Splitter	28%	35%	28.9%	17.6%	19.0%
Slider	24%	21%	33.3%	22.5%	21.0%

Reds lineup

Projected · facing Trey Yesavage RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Carlos Jorge CF · bats L	58.5%	34.8%	11.4%	4.0	-0.9	.284	F	Balanced	Normal
2	Elly De La Cruz SS · bats S	67.8%	44.6%	18.2%	3.9	+1.4	.390	A	Power	Normal
3	Sal Stewart 1B · bats R	68.2%	41.7%	16.2%	3.8	-0.8	.358	B	Balanced	Hot
4	Tyler Stephenson C · bats R	58.7%	35.2%	13.2%	3.8	-0.4	.358	B	Power	Cold
5	JJ Bleday LF · bats L	52.6%	31.4%	12.3%	3.7	-1.3	.300	D	Balanced	Hot
6	Eugenio Suárez DH · bats R	53.4%	36.2%	19.1%	3.6	+1.3	.351	B	Power	Normal
7	Héctor Rodríguez RF · bats L	54.4%	31.0%	11.6%	3.5	-0.9	.341	D	Balanced	Normal
8	Matt McLain 2B · bats R	47.4%	24.6%	8.9%	3.4	-2.4	.238	F	Balanced	Cold
9	Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B · bats R	49.8%	24.7%	5.9%	3.3	-1.8	.241	D	Balanced	Cold

Blue Jays lineup

Projected · facing Rhett Lowder RHP