MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 8Matt McLain
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.238wOBA vs RHP.253xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Matt McLain: wOBA .325 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Matt McLain: wOBA .254 vs league .278 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Matt McLain: wOBA .298 vs league .322 (pitcher's edge).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Matt McLain's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Matt McLain's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.9 mph at -37°Single: 78.9 mph at 8°Out: 78.1 mph at -14°Single: 57.6 mph at 32°Triple: 95.8 mph at 28°Out: 94.5 mph at 40°Out: 87.0 mph at 38°Single: 83.7 mph at 18°Single: 98.9 mph at 8°Out: 47.5 mph at 32°Out: 107.2 mph at 5°Out: 77.1 mph at -44°Out: 80.6 mph at 49°Out: 52.8 mph at -12°Out: 95.5 mph at 36°Out: 91.0 mph at 57°Out: 88.7 mph at 55°Out: 77.4 mph at -14°Double: 102.0 mph at 24°Out: 79.6 mph at 70°Out: 92.7 mph at 17°Out: 69.9 mph at 43°Out: 100.9 mph at 15°Single: 58.8 mph at -36°Out: 92.4 mph at 40°Out: 93.7 mph at -5°Out: 90.9 mph at 67°Single: 76.1 mph at 16°Out: 92.6 mph at 45°Out: 82.5 mph at 5°Out: 78.1 mph at 44°Home run: 99.5 mph at 38°Out: 72.6 mph at -3°Out: 98.2 mph at 33°Home run: 102.4 mph at 25°Out: 95.5 mph at 39°Out: 91.6 mph at -8°Out: 87.6 mph at 62°Out: 103.6 mph at 49°Out: 96.7 mph at 21°
30% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.4%49.8%-2.4
2+ total bases24.6%26.4%-1.7
Home run8.9%9.5%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-1.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Matt McLain against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.325.34925.0%21.1%31About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.254.27837.5%30.8%8About league average vs these
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.298.32240.6%31.7%19About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Matt McLain · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.333.333.556.378.20522.2%0.0%21.1%85.695.80.0%14.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1232.094.094.156.110.13234.4%0.0%29.8%83.695.80.0%10.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2675.103.162.221.189.19229.3%4.0%27.3%85.3104.64.3%27.7%25.5%
90 days49136.139.207.279.226.24731.6%5.9%29.8%84.5106.67.4%32.1%34.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 81 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.250.250.250.225.19950.0%0.0%22.7%77.8107.20.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G919.333.368.556.397.28131.6%5.3%25.5%84.2107.28.3%41.7%50.0%
Last 30 G1938.306.342.528.376.29028.9%5.3%19.3%85.7107.412.0%40.0%40.0%
90 days3362.246.295.439.327.26529.0%6.5%21.5%81.2107.410.3%28.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 21%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.294.294.412.306.20235.3%0.0%22.0%82.7107.20.0%27.3%54.5%
Last 15 G1551.180.196.300.219.18833.3%2.0%27.9%83.8107.23.1%21.9%31.2%
Last 30 G30113.173.223.327.252.22529.2%4.4%24.2%85.5107.46.9%31.9%30.6%
90 days56198.173.235.330.257.25330.8%6.1%27.0%83.4107.48.3%30.8%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 19%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 13%
Matt McLain · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating8Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.249 / .259results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.180.9-37.053Out
Sep 24RHPSplitter87.078.98.314Single
Sep 24RHPSplitter83.478.1-14.075Out
Sep 23LHPSlider81.057.632.309Single
Sep 23RHPSinker97.895.828.447Triple
Sep 22RHPFastball93.994.540.053Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball84.487.038.014Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.283.718.885Single
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.298.98.580Single
Sep 20LHPFastball94.247.532.112Force out
Sep 20LHPFastball94.0107.25.589Out
Sep 18RHPSinker92.077.1-44.131Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 23424002
Sep 22411001
Sep 20311000
Sep 19200002
Sep 18400000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16412002
Sep 15300003
Sep 11300001

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Matt McLain bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Matt McLain with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.9%42.4%
Whiff%27.7%22.2%
Contact%72.3%77.8%
Chase%36.8%39.8%
wOBA.210.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.5%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.276
K%30.1%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%20.3%
Avg EV84.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

136 PA
wOBA.238
xwOBA vs this mix.253against pitches like his
RV/100-1.72
Hard-hit%19.8%
K%30.7%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Matt McLain: every projection we've made →