MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · CIN · batting 4Tyler Stephenson
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.358wOBA vs RHP.323xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TORTrey Yesavage
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
5.2projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Trey Yesavage's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 49% usage, 94.2 mph, +4.7″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Tyler Stephenson: wOBA .361 vs league .349 (about even).Fastball 49%Splitter: 28% usage, 83.0 mph, +11.4″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Tyler Stephenson: wOBA .290 vs league .278 (about even).Splitter 28%Slider: 24% usage, 86.9 mph, +2.9″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Tyler Stephenson: wOBA .334 vs league .322 (about even).Slider 24%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tyler Stephenson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tyler Stephenson's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.6 mph at -11°Out: 90.2 mph at 63°Out: 104.5 mph at -3°Out: 86.7 mph at -24°Double: 92.1 mph at 18°Out: 81.5 mph at 40°Out: 79.5 mph at 27°Out: 95.5 mph at -4°Out: 86.6 mph at 40°Out: 84.1 mph at 5°Single: 97.9 mph at -3°Single: 70.4 mph at 12°Single: 103.2 mph at 22°Out: 100.9 mph at -3°Out: 88.1 mph at 5°Out: 96.9 mph at 48°Out: 81.1 mph at 67°Single: 103.6 mph at 4°Out: 74.2 mph at 4°Out: 94.4 mph at 27°Out: 65.8 mph at -9°Double: 105.4 mph at 19°Out: 96.2 mph at 35°Out: 89.9 mph at -1°Out: 93.2 mph at 43°Double: 109.1 mph at 16°Out: 92.1 mph at 29°Out: 76.9 mph at 37°Single: 98.6 mph at 7°Single: 103.5 mph at -11°Out: 74.0 mph at 9°Out: 83.3 mph at 55°Out: 90.4 mph at 73°Out: 81.5 mph at 43°Out: 96.7 mph at 19°Single: 92.1 mph at 15°Single: 87.4 mph at -26°Out: 88.4 mph at 28°Home run: 104.0 mph at 39°Out: 68.7 mph at -2°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.7%59.1%-0.4
2+ total bases35.2%35.4%-0.2
Home run13.2%13.0%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Tyler Stephenson against each of Trey Yesavage's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball49%94.2+5″ / +19″.361.34923.1%21.1%33About league average vs these
Splitter28%83.0+11″ / +7″.290.27836.1%30.8%6Little history vs this shape
Slider24%86.9+3″ / +4″.334.32237.5%31.7%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tyler Stephenson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.222.300.333.285.23030.0%10.0%29.4%88.397.90.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1327.261.333.304.291.27422.2%7.4%24.4%87.9103.65.6%33.3%27.8%
Last 30 G2873.246.329.361.305.26931.5%11.0%29.6%90.0106.29.8%36.6%39.0%
90 days62172.286.343.500.365.33030.8%7.0%27.9%91.1106.213.7%44.1%41.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 102 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 28%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.10228.6%0.0%26.7%91.7104.50.0%40.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1021.167.286.278.262.25323.8%14.3%22.2%94.1109.115.4%46.2%30.8%
Last 30 G2140.250.325.472.345.26825.0%10.0%23.5%91.9109.17.7%38.5%34.6%
90 days3671.217.338.367.319.31422.5%15.5%17.5%91.2109.16.8%38.6%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 25%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.125.176.188.168.17729.4%5.9%28.1%89.8104.50.0%27.3%18.2%
Last 15 G1548.220.312.293.278.26522.9%10.4%23.3%90.5109.19.7%38.7%29.0%
Last 30 G30113.247.327.402.319.26829.2%10.6%27.2%90.8109.19.0%37.3%37.3%
90 days66243.266.342.463.351.32628.4%9.5%24.8%91.1109.111.6%42.5%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 8%
Tyler Stephenson · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches5trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.350 / .332running 18 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.589.6-11.131Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.090.263.008Out
Sep 23LHPSinker91.4104.5-3.382Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.486.7-24.065Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball90.792.118.560Double
Sep 20LHPSlider87.781.540.013Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.779.527.227Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.395.5-4.308Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.286.640.005Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.984.15.323Out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.397.9-3.293Single
Sep 18RHPSweeper81.070.412.309Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23100000
Sep 22412002
Sep 20400002
Sep 19411000
Sep 18411012
Sep 17311000
Sep 16411000
Sep 15100000
Sep 14400002

Two strikes

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPwith two strikes
Trey Yesavage with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball49%44%14.8%17.4%18.0%
Splitter28%35%28.9%17.6%19.0%
Slider24%21%33.3%22.5%21.0%
Tyler Stephenson bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tyler Stephenson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.7%42.4%
Whiff%25.8%22.2%
Contact%74.2%77.8%
Chase%33.7%39.8%
wOBA.234.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.6%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.343
K%28.6%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV91.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

172 PA
wOBA.358
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/1000.71
Hard-hit%26.1%
K%29.8%
BB%9.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trey YesavageRHP · TOR vs CIN
5.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 18.4 batters over 4.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 24.1%24%≤34 strikeouts: 16.7%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 15.1%15%67 strikeouts: 11.1%11%78 strikeouts: 7.3%7%89+ strikeouts: 8.3%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 58%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff92
Location104
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball48%8494.310.1%
Splitter28%10483.016.3%
Slider24%9486.917.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Jul 299715%10%12%.214
Jul 249350%18%22%.411
Jul 199538%20%17%.306

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trey Yesavage TOR · RHPvsCIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tyler Stephenson: every projection we've made →