MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 9Brayan Rocchio
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.311wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
4.3projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.2 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .353 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 27% usage, 80.6 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .274 vs league .278 (about even).Changeup 27%Cutter: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .372 vs league .376 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 93.1 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .358 vs league .363 (about even).Sinker 13%Curveball: 10% usage, 75.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, -12.0″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .310 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 84.6 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +2.7″ rise. Brayan Rocchio: wOBA .347 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brayan Rocchio's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brayan Rocchio's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 62.6 mph at 5°Out: 90.1 mph at 46°Out: 87.2 mph at -17°Out: 91.1 mph at -3°Single: 83.3 mph at 8°Single: 93.5 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at 34°Out: 91.6 mph at -1°Out: 92.0 mph at 51°Double: 90.2 mph at 15°Out: 50.5 mph at -61°Out: 105.9 mph at -25°Double: 89.0 mph at 19°Single: 91.7 mph at 17°Out: 91.1 mph at 18°Out: 72.9 mph at -14°Out: 80.5 mph at 27°Single: 90.7 mph at 1°Double: 88.8 mph at 30°Out: 88.0 mph at -14°Out: 98.5 mph at -8°Single: 89.0 mph at 8°Out: 70.9 mph at -22°Out: 93.0 mph at 32°Single: 101.9 mph at 11°Out: 86.5 mph at 67°Out: 76.4 mph at 2°Out: 96.6 mph at 10°Double: 98.5 mph at 18°Out: 63.8 mph at 55°Out: 88.3 mph at 49°Out: 82.6 mph at 75°Out: 86.8 mph at -3°Out: 69.3 mph at 34°Out: 25.4 mph at 14°Single: 80.4 mph at 17°Out: 92.9 mph at 2°Single: 101.0 mph at 11°Single: 38.2 mph at -40°Out: 92.1 mph at 24°
15% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.9%58.8%+2.1
2+ total bases31.6%30.0%+1.6
Home run6.5%6.5%+0.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brayan Rocchio against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.2+6″ / +18″.353.35812.2%15.5%46About league average vs these
Changeup27%80.6+13″ / +7″.274.27823.2%28.0%14About league average vs these
Cutter14%89.6-2″ / +10″.372.37613.7%17.2%21About league average vs these
Sinker13%93.1+12″ / +15″.358.36312.5%15.9%58About league average vs these
Curveball10%75.4-10″ / -12″.310.31424.4%25.0%4Little history vs this shape
Slider8%84.6-3″ / +3″.347.35225.7%26.5%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brayan Rocchio · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.429.500.571.469.4100.0%12.5%7.1%91.3105.90.0%14.3%57.1%
Last 15 G1130.400.483.640.488.38813.3%10.0%17.2%87.8105.90.0%22.7%59.1%
Last 30 G2667.283.333.450.356.33411.9%4.5%15.5%88.2105.90.0%33.3%46.3%
90 days65184.253.301.406.315.29714.1%4.9%18.5%87.6105.92.1%33.6%39.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 23%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.200.200.300.215.25020.0%0.0%23.5%82.693.50.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1326.160.192.200.179.23215.4%3.8%21.8%80.2101.00.0%9.5%28.6%
Last 30 G2545.163.200.279.211.22617.8%4.4%25.3%82.6102.52.9%14.3%31.4%
90 days5399.185.227.293.242.25117.2%4.0%21.1%84.0104.93.9%16.9%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 77 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.294.333.412.328.32111.1%5.6%16.1%86.7105.90.0%6.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1556.280.345.420.342.31414.3%7.1%19.5%84.1105.90.0%16.3%44.2%
Last 30 G30112.233.279.379.297.29014.3%4.5%19.5%86.0105.91.1%25.8%40.4%
90 days72283.229.275.366.290.28115.2%4.6%19.5%86.4105.92.7%27.8%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 8%
Brayan Rocchio · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating21Poor
Last 100 pitches33trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.285 / .284results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter86.962.65.132Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.290.146.004Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.887.2-17.086Out
Sep 23RHPSinker92.291.1-3.234Double play
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.383.38.369Single
Sep 22LHPFastball96.193.513.921Single
Sep 22LHPSinker91.690.434.055Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.691.6-1.267Double play
Sep 22LHPSinker96.192.051.004Out
Sep 19LHPFastball89.890.215.916Double
Sep 19LHPFastball86.650.5-61.202Out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.5105.9-25.099Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300001
Sep 23311000
Sep 22511001
Sep 19312000
Sep 18423010
Sep 16400011
Sep 15423010
Sep 14311000
Sep 13511001
Sep 12300001

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.6%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.0%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%16.9%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.0%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.1%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%17.9%
Other0%0%–100.0%21.7%
Brayan Rocchio bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Brayan Rocchio with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.7%41.0%
Whiff%17.9%21.3%
Contact%82.1%78.7%
Chase%45.8%39.6%
wOBA.258.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.5%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.290
K%15.9%
BB%5.0%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV86.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

181 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-0.42
Hard-hit%26.0%
K%15.3%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE
4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 37.7%38%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.5%16%56 strikeouts: 11.9%12%67 strikeouts: 7.3%7%78 strikeouts: 4.0%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.3%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brayan Rocchio: every projection we've made →