CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026

The game

CLE runs4.2win 50%

KC runs4.2win 50%

Total8.3book line 7.0

No run, 1st inning51%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 67°F · Crosswind · roof open
Park factor: Runs 103 · HR 89 100 = average

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

CLE starter

Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE vs KC

3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings

Over 3.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%16.5%

BB%6.8%

Whiff%8.7%

Velo87.0

BTB Stuff96

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball25%7693.96.0%

Cutter23%12185.212.4%

Sinker19%9492.74.3%

Changeup14%10580.616.7%

Curveball12%7878.25.5%

Sweeper8%9881.97.4%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	95	8%	7%	40%	.518
Sep 13	96	27%	16%	31%	.248
Sep 8	62	5%	2%	30%	.412

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Carter Jensen26%

2Bobby Witt Jr.17%

3Vinnie Pasquantino13%

4Salvador Perez19%

5Michael Massey16%

6Nick Loftin20%

7John Rave20%

8Kyle Isbel24%

9Isaac Collins24%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

KC starter

Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE

4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings

Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.1%

BB%6.6%

Whiff%9.3%

Velo86.9

BTB Stuff88

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball28%9293.27.2%

Changeup27%9480.614.2%

Cutter14%9089.87.9%

Sinker13%8193.24.1%

Curveball10%6875.66.8%

Slider8%8184.514.3%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	114	19%	11%	27%	.350
Sep 15	99	8%	5%	38%	.346
Sep 8	93	17%	7%	13%	.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Steven Kwan10%

2José Ramírez14%

3Chase DeLauter13%

4Jo Adell25%

5Angel Martínez24%

6David Fry23%

7Travis Bazzana21%

8Patrick Bailey27%

9Brayan Rocchio15%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineuppitch-mix battle

Michael Wacha's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Michael Wacha's pitches					CLE lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	28%	93.2	92	7.2%	0.81	.376	7.9%	26.8%	+0.87
Changeup	27%	80.6	94	14.2%	1.99	.261	11.3%	22.0%	-1.32
Cutter	14%	89.8	90	7.9%	0.83	.258	11.3%	21.1%	-0.77
Sinker	13%	93.2	81	4.1%	-3.56	.390	5.1%	29.1%	+1.11
Curveball	10%	75.6	68	6.8%	-2.78	.327	9.5%	24.7%	+0.39
Slider	8%	84.5	81	14.3%	-0.51	.278	13.4%	23.3%	-0.19

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineuppitch-mix battle

Tanner Bibee's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Tanner Bibee's pitches					KC lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	25%	93.9	76	6.0%	-0.81	.352	7.7%	29.7%	+0.79
Cutter	23%	85.2	121	12.4%	0.91	.341	9.3%	30.7%	+0.06
Sinker	19%	92.7	94	4.3%	-0.27	.366	3.6%	33.2%	+0.76
Changeup	14%	80.6	105	16.7%	-1.12	.292	14.0%	26.4%	-0.09
Curveball	12%	78.2	78	5.5%	0.37	.302	11.5%	23.6%	-0.05
Sweeper	8%	81.9	98	7.4%	-2.93	.261	13.3%	22.8%	-0.01

Bullpens

Guardians bullpen#1 of 30

K%29.4%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%21.0%

SwStr%12.7%

wOBA allowed.286

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Royals bullpen#20 of 30

K%20.8%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%13.7%

SwStr%10.8%

wOBA allowed.350

Arms available16 / 16

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-0 pts

Cutter-2 pts

Changeup+6 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Sweeper+3 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Tanner Bibee with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	25%	24%	11.5%	11.3%	18.0%
Cutter	23%	21%	25.5%	23.5%	17.9%
Changeup	14%	20%	20.9%	17.7%	18.6%
Sinker	19%	16%	3.1%	14.5%	16.9%
Sweeper	8%	11%	8.0%	6.8%	19.3%
Curveball	12%	8%	10.5%	12.5%	20.1%

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+7 pts

Fastball+1 pts

Sinker+3 pts

Slider-1 pts

Curveball-3 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Other+0 pts

Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	27%	35%	21.2%	18.2%	18.6%
Fastball	28%	29%	9.4%	14.0%	18.0%
Sinker	13%	16%	7.7%	11.3%	16.9%
Slider	8%	7%	43.8%	21.2%	21.0%
Curveball	10%	7%	14.3%	9.4%	20.1%
Cutter	14%	6%	7.7%	19.2%	17.9%
Other	0%	0%	–	100.0%	21.7%

Guardians lineup

Projected · facing Michael Wacha RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Steven Kwan LF · bats L	74.3%	41.1%	4.0%	4.0	+3.6	.412	A	Contact	Hot
2	José Ramírez 3B · bats S	66.5%	37.1%	6.4%	3.9	+1.5	.290	B	Contact	Normal
3	Chase DeLauter RF · bats L	70.0%	43.5%	12.7%	3.8	+3.7	.391	A	Power	Cold
4	Jo Adell DH · bats R	63.4%	37.9%	14.6%	3.8	+1.0	.266	C	Balanced	Normal
5	Angel Martínez RF · bats S	65.5%	37.4%	10.0%	3.7	+1.7	.317	F	Balanced	Hot
6	David Fry 1B · bats R	52.8%	28.5%	8.9%	3.6	+2.4	.300	F	Balanced	Hot
7	Travis Bazzana 2B · bats L	60.6%	33.1%	9.2%	3.5	+3.5	.323	D	Balanced	Normal
8	Patrick Bailey C · bats S	57.3%	31.9%	8.9%	3.4	+2.5	.327	D	Balanced	Cold
9	Brayan Rocchio SS · bats S	60.9%	31.6%	6.5%	3.3	+2.1	.311	F	Balanced	Normal

Royals lineup

Projected · facing Tanner Bibee RHP