MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 6David Fry
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.300wOBA vs RHP.290xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
4.3projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.2 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .356 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 27% usage, 80.6 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .280 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 27%Cutter: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .336 vs league .338 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 93.1 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .360 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 13%Curveball: 10% usage, 75.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, -12.0″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .315 vs league .317 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 84.6 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +2.7″ rise. David Fry: wOBA .316 vs league .318 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is David Fry's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

David Fry's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 61.0 mph at 60°Out: 102.1 mph at 2°Single: 100.4 mph at 15°Out: 82.3 mph at -13°Single: 91.7 mph at -4°Out: 79.6 mph at -6°Double: 102.6 mph at 18°Out: 98.9 mph at 63°Out: 80.9 mph at 87°Out: 91.7 mph at 23°Home run: 108.0 mph at 27°Out: 103.9 mph at 14°Out: 25.0 mph at 53°Out: 72.4 mph at 76°Out: 99.8 mph at 46°Out: 90.7 mph at 58°Out: 87.4 mph at 69°Out: 83.9 mph at -30°Out: 73.5 mph at -42°Single: 95.2 mph at 6°Out: 91.8 mph at 56°Single: 104.0 mph at 1°Single: 52.6 mph at -78°Out: 72.3 mph at 85°Double: 102.8 mph at 11°Out: 97.5 mph at 63°Out: 74.1 mph at 28°Out: 69.9 mph at 6°Out: 78.6 mph at 33°Out: 77.5 mph at 58°Out: 79.0 mph at -35°Out: 100.7 mph at -8°Out: 93.6 mph at 47°Out: 82.7 mph at 30°Out: 76.4 mph at 61°Out: 97.3 mph at 42°Out: 78.6 mph at -39°Out: 88.8 mph at -31°Out: 96.7 mph at -4°Out: 55.4 mph at 75°
35% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.8%50.4%+2.4
2+ total bases28.5%27.3%+1.1
Home run8.9%9.7%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

David Fry against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.2+6″ / +18″.356.35819.7%18.0%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup27%80.6+13″ / +7″.280.28240.0%37.9%2Little history vs this shape
Cutter14%89.6-2″ / +10″.336.33826.0%24.0%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker13%93.1+12″ / +15″.360.36215.7%14.3%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball10%75.4-10″ / -12″.315.31734.1%30.2%3Little history vs this shape
Slider8%84.6-3″ / +3″.316.31833.0%29.1%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
David Fry · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.333.3331.3331.000.98133.3%0.0%33.3%108.0108.0100.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G56.333.333.833.580.44416.7%0.0%25.0%64.5108.025.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1016.133.188.333.240.23125.0%6.2%34.6%75.6108.010.0%20.0%10.0%
90 days1118.176.222.353.265.23322.2%5.6%32.1%71.3108.08.3%16.7%8.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 0%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.333.308.297.25320.0%6.7%22.7%89.1102.60.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1329.200.310.240.264.24417.2%6.9%18.4%89.7104.00.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 30 G2749.150.306.200.253.25324.5%14.3%21.4%89.0104.00.0%39.3%25.0%
90 days3259.163.305.327.290.26125.4%13.6%20.9%88.5104.02.9%44.1%23.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 15%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 32%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.250.333.500.379.33922.2%5.6%24.0%90.8108.09.1%45.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1535.226.314.355.310.27417.1%5.7%19.3%85.5108.04.2%37.5%20.8%
Last 30 G3065.145.277.236.250.24824.6%12.3%24.2%85.5108.02.6%34.2%21.1%
90 days3677.167.286.333.284.25524.7%11.7%23.1%84.1108.04.3%37.0%19.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 11%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 33%
David Fry · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches14trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.282 / .254running 28 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter87.061.060.003Out
Sep 24LHPSinker90.8102.12.515Force out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.8100.415.716Single
Sep 22LHPSinker95.082.3-13.077Fielder's choice
Sep 22LHPSinker92.991.7-4.179Single
Sep 22LHPSinker94.379.6-6.092Fielder's choice
Sep 19LHPFastball92.3102.618.590Double
Sep 19LHPFastball89.798.963.013Out
Sep 16LHPFastball98.480.987.000Out
Sep 16LHPFastball97.091.723.185Out
Sep 14RHPFastball91.7108.0271.962Home run
Sep 12LHPSinker96.3103.914.711Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411001
Sep 22411000
Sep 19412001
Sep 16400011
Sep 14214101
Sep 12200000
Sep 11200000
Sep 7300000
Sep 6100001
Sep 5311000

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.6%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.0%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%16.9%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.0%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.1%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%17.9%
Other0%0%–100.0%21.7%
David Fry bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
David Fry with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.3%42.4%
Whiff%23.5%22.2%
Contact%76.5%77.8%
Chase%40.6%39.8%
wOBA.229.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.1%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.278
K%30.0%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%23.1%
Avg EV86.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

18 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.290against pitches like his
RV/100-0.18
Hard-hit%22.3%
K%23.1%
BB%10.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE
4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 37.7%38%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.5%16%56 strikeouts: 11.9%12%67 strikeouts: 7.3%7%78 strikeouts: 4.0%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.3%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.David Fry: every projection we've made →