MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 4Jo Adell
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.266wOBA vs RHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
4.3projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.2 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .332 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 28%Changeup: 27% usage, 80.6 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .257 vs league .282 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 27%Cutter: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .312 vs league .338 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 93.1 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .336 vs league .362 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 13%Curveball: 10% usage, 75.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, -12.0″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .292 vs league .317 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 84.6 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +2.7″ rise. Jo Adell: wOBA .292 vs league .318 (pitcher's edge).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jo Adell's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jo Adell's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.1 mph at -30°Out: 98.3 mph at -25°Out: 103.5 mph at -12°Out: 98.7 mph at -16°Out: 102.3 mph at 37°Out: 80.7 mph at 35°Out: 77.6 mph at 35°Single: 99.1 mph at -10°Out: 55.9 mph at 57°Out: 88.0 mph at 72°Out: 87.6 mph at 43°Out: 81.9 mph at 63°Single: 97.9 mph at -4°Single: 106.1 mph at 16°Out: 93.6 mph at -39°Out: 92.1 mph at 62°Single: 106.1 mph at -4°Single: 90.2 mph at 11°Out: 93.0 mph at 0°Out: 97.8 mph at 6°Home run: 110.1 mph at 27°Out: 74.2 mph at 15°Out: 107.5 mph at 52°Single: 107.7 mph at 10°Out: 101.2 mph at 1°Out: 31.4 mph at -16°Home run: 116.8 mph at 29°Out: 66.7 mph at 11°Out: 91.8 mph at 4°Double: 80.8 mph at 31°Out: 92.8 mph at 52°Single: 96.4 mph at -10°Out: 106.6 mph at 0°Out: 105.7 mph at -14°Out: 81.7 mph at -6°Single: 107.8 mph at 11°Out: 93.0 mph at 52°Out: 102.5 mph at -6°Single: 100.3 mph at 13°Double: 71.3 mph at 40°
53% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%62.4%+1.0
2+ total bases37.9%37.9%+0.0
Home run14.6%15.9%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-1.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-1.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jo Adell against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.2+6″ / +18″.332.35819.5%18.0%52About league average vs these
Changeup27%80.6+13″ / +7″.257.28237.2%37.9%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter14%89.6-2″ / +10″.312.33826.3%24.0%33About league average vs these
Sinker13%93.1+12″ / +15″.336.36215.3%14.3%68About league average vs these
Curveball10%75.4-10″ / -12″.292.31733.6%30.2%9About league average vs these
Slider8%84.6-3″ / +3″.292.31832.7%29.1%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jo Adell · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.125.222.125.200.32011.1%11.1%28.6%87.7102.30.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1343.200.256.300.299.33127.9%4.7%26.6%91.9116.83.7%48.1%29.6%
Last 30 G2794.221.277.337.295.30622.3%6.4%21.8%89.7116.83.1%40.0%27.7%
90 days69214.177.252.292.266.30224.8%7.0%25.1%89.5116.85.8%42.0%29.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 138 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.250.308.250.262.19323.1%7.7%21.4%93.5106.10.0%66.7%11.1%
Last 15 G822.350.409.550.416.30622.7%9.1%26.1%92.7110.16.7%53.3%20.0%
Last 30 G1535.300.400.433.375.31625.7%11.4%28.8%91.4110.14.8%42.9%19.0%
90 days4487.351.414.662.470.41626.4%6.9%32.4%92.4112.713.0%50.0%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 54 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 22%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.200.273.200.238.24118.2%9.1%23.8%91.2106.10.0%53.3%6.7%
Last 15 G1565.250.308.383.339.32326.2%6.2%26.4%92.2116.84.8%50.0%26.2%
Last 30 G30129.241.310.362.316.30923.3%7.8%23.8%90.1116.83.5%40.7%25.6%
90 days74301.227.299.398.324.33525.2%7.0%27.3%90.3116.87.8%44.3%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 192 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
Jo Adell · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating68Above average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .333running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker89.696.1-30.065Out
Sep 24LHPSinker88.898.3-25.127Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.1103.5-12.300Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.098.7-16.159Out
Sep 23RHPCutter88.4102.337.717Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.980.735.046Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.677.635.067Out
Sep 22LHPSinker96.299.1-10.251Single
Sep 20RHPFastball96.155.957.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball99.088.072.003Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.887.643.000Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup81.181.963.012Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23400011
Sep 22511011
Sep 20411000
Sep 19522001
Sep 18411002
Sep 16411012
Sep 15414100
Sep 14411001
Sep 13526100

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.6%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.0%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%16.9%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.0%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.1%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%17.9%
Other0%0%–100.0%21.7%
Jo Adell bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jo Adell with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.6%42.4%
Whiff%22.8%22.2%
Contact%77.2%77.8%
Chase%38.2%39.8%
wOBA.220.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.2%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.322
K%25.5%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%13.3%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%28.3%
Avg EV90.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

211 PA
wOBA.266
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-1.27
Hard-hit%26.6%
K%25.0%
BB%7.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE
4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 37.7%38%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.5%16%56 strikeouts: 11.9%12%67 strikeouts: 7.3%7%78 strikeouts: 4.0%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.3%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jo Adell: every projection we've made →