MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · KC · batting 7John Rave
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.339wOBA vs RHP.330xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CLETanner Bibee
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Down
3.7projected K17%K%2.1trips vs this hitter
Tanner Bibee's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 25% usage, 93.9 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .363 vs league .361 (about even).Fastball 25%Cutter: 23% usage, 85.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +0.1″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .321 vs league .320 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .355 vs league .354 (about even).Sinker 19%Changeup: 14% usage, 80.6 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .285 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 78.1 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .315 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 12%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.0 mph, -16.6″ arm side, -1.7″ rise. John Rave: wOBA .316 vs league .315 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is John Rave's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

John Rave's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 88.3 mph at 14°Out: 66.7 mph at -28°Double: 103.8 mph at 23°Out: 97.7 mph at -13°Out: 43.2 mph at 37°Out: 100.2 mph at 31°Single: 35.1 mph at -48°Out: 105.3 mph at -3°Single: 96.6 mph at 11°Out: 87.0 mph at 38°Single: 55.5 mph at 48°Double: 105.2 mph at 10°Out: 92.2 mph at -1°Home run: 101.9 mph at 22°Out: 62.9 mph at 47°Out: 73.6 mph at -13°Out: 103.9 mph at -18°Out: 97.8 mph at 37°Out: 94.6 mph at 20°Out: 87.6 mph at 7°Out: 101.0 mph at 12°Single: 64.9 mph at -46°Out: 75.3 mph at -13°Home run: 101.1 mph at 35°Double: 86.3 mph at 27°Out: 94.8 mph at 25°Out: 75.3 mph at -29°Out: 91.8 mph at 22°Out: 9.1 mph at -17°Home run: 98.0 mph at 34°Out: 103.9 mph at -7°Single: 100.1 mph at 3°Out: 100.1 mph at -8°Out: 83.2 mph at 43°Out: 69.3 mph at -6°Single: 97.9 mph at 9°Out: 74.0 mph at 72°Out: 88.5 mph at 58°Out: 102.3 mph at -23°Out: 84.8 mph at 79°
43% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.4%57.1%+2.3
2+ total bases31.8%30.7%+1.1
Home run8.9%9.7%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-0.6
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

John Rave against each of Tanner Bibee's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball25%93.9+4″ / +15″.363.36114.1%14.8%24About league average vs these
Cutter23%85.1-7″ / +0″.321.32027.3%28.1%14About league average vs these
Sinker19%92.7+15″ / +8″.355.35413.4%14.0%25About league average vs these
Changeup14%80.6+12″ / +12″.285.28327.8%30.2%11About league average vs these
Curveball12%78.1-14″ / -8″.315.31426.9%30.2%8Little history vs this shape
Sweeper8%82.0-17″ / -2″.316.31520.8%23.8%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
John Rave · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.333.357.310.37633.3%6.7%26.1%81.9105.322.2%55.6%44.4%
Last 15 G1339.294.385.559.414.38823.1%12.8%20.9%85.6105.38.3%41.7%41.7%
Last 30 G2876.224.316.403.334.33221.1%11.8%19.7%87.9105.36.0%42.0%34.0%
90 days38101.233.317.422.336.33919.8%10.9%18.9%87.0105.37.2%39.1%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G44.250.250.250.225.01250.0%0.0%42.9%71.287.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1013.083.154.083.123.13453.8%7.7%36.0%68.897.80.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1929.192.250.346.302.22141.4%6.9%25.0%73.4106.56.7%26.7%33.3%
90 days2336.188.235.312.289.20833.3%5.6%22.6%71.3106.54.8%19.0%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 10%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.278.316.333.292.30036.8%5.3%30.0%79.9105.318.2%45.5%36.4%
Last 15 G1552.239.327.435.340.32330.8%11.5%25.0%82.7105.36.9%37.9%37.9%
Last 30 G30105.215.298.387.325.30226.7%10.5%21.3%84.6106.56.2%38.5%33.8%
90 days41137.221.296.393.325.30723.4%9.5%19.9%83.3106.56.7%34.4%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 90 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 19%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
John Rave · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches33trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .313results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.188.314.903Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup79.766.7-28.052Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.2103.8231.245Double
Sep 23RHPSinker95.197.7-13.192Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball98.343.237.141Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper82.6100.231.864Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.135.1-48.282Single
Sep 20RHPCutter92.8105.3-3.430Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup89.096.611.838Single
Sep 19LHPFastball89.387.038.014Out
Sep 18LHPFastball90.755.548.036Single
Sep 17RHPFastball93.4105.210.869Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24423001
Sep 23400001
Sep 20411002
Sep 19411002
Sep 18311011
Sep 17312001
Sep 16414101
Sep 15300011
Sep 13100010
Sep 12300001

Two strikes

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Tanner Bibee with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball25%24%11.5%11.3%18.0%
Cutter23%21%25.5%23.5%17.9%
Changeup14%20%20.9%17.7%18.6%
Sinker19%16%3.1%14.5%16.9%
Sweeper8%11%8.0%6.8%19.3%
Curveball12%8%10.5%12.5%20.1%
John Rave bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
John Rave with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.9%41.0%
Whiff%24.2%21.3%
Contact%75.8%78.7%
Chase%43.0%39.6%
wOBA.244.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.5%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.302
K%24.0%
BB%9.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV84.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

99 PA
wOBA.339
xwOBA vs this mix.330against pitches like his
RV/100-0.08
Hard-hit%26.7%
K%20.0%
BB%9.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE vs KC
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 49.3%49%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.3%14%56 strikeouts: 8.8%9%67 strikeouts: 4.8%5%78 strikeouts: 2.2%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff96
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball25%7693.96.0%
Cutter23%12185.212.4%
Sinker19%9492.74.3%
Changeup14%10580.616.7%
Curveball12%7878.25.5%
Sweeper8%9881.97.4%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19958%7%40%.518
Sep 139627%16%31%.248
Sep 8625%2%30%.412

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.John Rave: every projection we've made →