MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CLE · batting 6Nathaniel Lowe
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.330wOBA vs RHP.321xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
3.9projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 29% usage, 81.5 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .326 vs league .304 (hitter's edge).Changeup 29%Fastball: 29% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.6″ arm side, +18.4″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .381 vs league .360 (hitter's edge).Fastball 29%Cutter: 16% usage, 88.7 mph, -1.8″ arm side, +10.3″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .382 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Cutter 16%Sinker: 12% usage, 93.1 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .384 vs league .363 (hitter's edge).Sinker 12%Curveball: 9% usage, 75.2 mph, -11.6″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .324 vs league .303 (hitter's edge).Curveball 9%Slider: 6% usage, 84.8 mph, -3.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Nathaniel Lowe: wOBA .364 vs league .343 (hitter's edge).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nathaniel Lowe's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nathaniel Lowe's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.6 mph at -3°Out: 85.5 mph at 75°Out: 86.8 mph at 27°Out: 106.2 mph at -9°Out: 72.7 mph at -29°Out: 99.6 mph at 39°Out: 89.6 mph at 24°Single: 103.0 mph at 8°Out: 108.0 mph at -15°Single: 58.7 mph at -31°Out: 62.9 mph at 75°Single: 106.9 mph at 9°Out: 103.5 mph at 9°Out: 90.3 mph at 55°Out: 107.6 mph at -5°Single: 103.3 mph at -3°Out: 81.6 mph at 45°Single: 74.8 mph at 12°Out: 101.0 mph at 23°Out: 84.2 mph at 69°Out: 101.5 mph at 26°Home run: 104.8 mph at 29°Out: 87.9 mph at 54°Out: 72.4 mph at -48°Out: 88.9 mph at 11°Home run: 97.5 mph at 30°Out: 92.3 mph at -7°Out: 88.2 mph at 78°Double: 101.2 mph at 19°Single: 80.5 mph at 12°Out: 95.5 mph at 14°Out: 107.1 mph at 3°Out: 93.3 mph at 20°Single: 93.2 mph at 16°Out: 95.0 mph at 18°Out: 82.6 mph at 20°Out: 80.8 mph at 11°Out: 89.9 mph at 25°Out: 83.1 mph at 12°Out: 89.0 mph at 40°
40% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%59.8%+3.0
2+ total bases37.4%34.9%+2.5
Home run10.3%10.0%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.7
Home run
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nathaniel Lowe hits
Where they meet

.297 xwOBA for Nathaniel Lowe in the spots Michael Wacha throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .311 (-14 points). His best spot against righties is middle-left, and Michael Wacha puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Michael Wacha · where he throws to left-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 23% per swing13%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing11%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing13%14% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 53% per swing14%
All · 812 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%10% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters10%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters3%12% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%26% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters26%14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%
Changeup · 278 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%17% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters17%23% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters23%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 246 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%
Cutter · 120 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%23% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters23%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%23% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters23%
Curveball · 79 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%25% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Sinker · 67 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%41% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters41%
Slider · 22 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Nathaniel Lowe · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .260 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 38 pitches seen.267xwOBA .233 shrunk (raw .181 on 17 PA) · league .307 · 51 pitches seen.233xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .507 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 27 pitches seen.368xwOBA .485 shrunk (raw .607 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 46 pitches seen.485xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .392 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.389xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .430 on 20 PA) · league .321 · 44 pitches seen.389xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .278 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 29 pitches seen.296xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .410 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.389xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .322 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 37 pitches seen.306xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .091 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 126 pitches seen.209xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .214 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 73 pitches seen.244xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .272 on 17 PA) · league .263 · 82 pitches seen.268xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .253 on 18 PA) · league .274 · 124 pitches seen.261
vs RHP · 771 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 22%20%Whiff 5% of 39 swings · league 20%5%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 3% of 33 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 0% of 31 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 17%26%Whiff 58% of 33 swings · league 28%58%Whiff 25% of 32 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 32%26%Whiff 67% of 30 swings · league 49%67%
vs RHP · 771 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 66% of 38 pitches · league 62%66%Swings at 77% of 51 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 85% of 27 pitches · league 66%85%Swings at 70% of 46 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 71% of 44 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 66% of 29 pitches · league 65%66%Swings at 57% of 49 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 62% of 37 pitches · league 60%62%Swings at 26% of 126 pitches · league 24%26%Swings at 44% of 73 pitches · league 34%44%Swings at 28% of 82 pitches · league 40%28%Swings at 24% of 124 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 771 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nathaniel Lowe against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup29%81.5+13″ / +9″.326.30418.9%28.2%175About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball29%93.1+7″ / +18″.381.36017.9%16.7%774About league average vs these
Cutter16%88.7-2″ / +10″.382.36119.3%18.7%367About league average vs these
Sinker12%93.1+13″ / +15″.384.36317.6%16.5%747About league average vs these
Curveball9%75.2-12″ / -12″.324.30322.4%26.2%76About league average vs these
Slider6%84.8-3″ / +4″.364.34321.8%25.7%219About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nathaniel Lowe · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.111.273.111.209.28418.2%9.1%38.9%92.9106.20.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1437.226.324.419.324.33921.6%10.8%30.5%92.9108.012.5%50.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2991.205.275.333.268.32123.1%8.8%22.6%89.9110.08.2%39.3%42.6%
90 days58191.260.304.451.333.32222.5%6.3%21.0%90.3111.77.5%41.8%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 134 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11–.000–.000.0980.0%0.0%0.0%86.886.80.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G66.250.333.500.325.3160.0%0.0%8.3%84.8101.20.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1316.154.250.231.222.2876.2%6.2%21.4%86.4107.10.0%30.8%30.8%
90 days2228.160.214.200.223.26117.9%3.6%27.5%87.6107.20.0%38.1%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 24%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.111.250.111.192.26916.7%8.3%36.8%92.1106.20.0%37.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1543.229.326.429.324.33618.6%9.3%26.8%91.5108.010.3%44.8%41.4%
Last 30 G30107.198.271.319.261.31620.6%8.4%22.4%89.3110.06.8%37.8%40.5%
90 days59219.247.292.419.319.31421.9%5.9%21.8%89.9111.76.5%41.3%38.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
Nathaniel Lowe · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating59Average
Last 100 pitches33trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.318 / .326results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.093.6-3.215Out
Sep 23RHPCutter90.185.575.000Out
Sep 22LHPSinker96.886.827.098Sac fly
Sep 20RHPChangeup91.1106.2-9.273Out
Sep 20RHPCutter94.472.7-29.044Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball82.399.639.373Out
Sep 18RHPFastball94.689.624.130Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.3103.08.666Single
Sep 15RHPChangeup91.5108.0-15.189Out
Sep 15RHPChangeup89.658.7-31.055Single
Sep 15LHPCurveball79.362.975.005Out
Sep 15RHPFastball99.2106.99.725Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100010
Sep 23300001
Sep 22100000
Sep 20300000
Sep 18411001
Sep 15422000
Sep 14200001
Sep 13522000
Sep 12200000
Sep 11200001

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.4%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.3%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%17.7%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.4%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.7%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%18.7%
Other0%0%–100.0%17.9%
Nathaniel Lowe bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nathaniel Lowe with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%41.3%
Whiff%20.3%21.6%
Contact%79.7%78.4%
Chase%35.7%39.4%
wOBA.256.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.6%19.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%22.4%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%10.6%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%28.6%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

191 PA
wOBA.330
xwOBA vs this mix.321against pitches like his
RV/1000.25
Hard-hit%29.0%
K%22.5%
BB%6.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE6 days' rest
3.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 44.6%45%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%20%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 10.1%10%67 strikeouts: 5.7%6%78 strikeouts: 2.9%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.0%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 55% (red bars) · under: 45%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nathaniel Lowe: every projection we've made →