MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · CLE · batting 1Steven Kwan
Bats leftTalent grade AContactHot
.412wOBA vs RHP.354xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · KCMichael Wacha
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Trending Down
4.3projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael Wacha's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.2 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .391 vs league .358 (hitter's edge).Fastball 28%Changeup: 27% usage, 80.6 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .311 vs league .278 (hitter's edge).Changeup 27%Cutter: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .409 vs league .376 (hitter's edge).Cutter 14%Sinker: 13% usage, 93.1 mph, +11.6″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .396 vs league .363 (hitter's edge).Sinker 13%Curveball: 10% usage, 75.4 mph, -10.2″ arm side, -12.0″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .347 vs league .314 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 84.6 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +2.7″ rise. Steven Kwan: wOBA .385 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Steven Kwan's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Steven Kwan's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.3 mph at -7°Out: 95.5 mph at 7°Out: 93.4 mph at -13°Single: 89.2 mph at -2°Single: 64.8 mph at 25°Out: 85.2 mph at 34°Out: 97.0 mph at 18°Out: 82.9 mph at 48°Single: 77.9 mph at 16°Single: 82.5 mph at 19°Out: 89.3 mph at 20°Single: 93.3 mph at 12°Single: 92.6 mph at 14°Out: 93.6 mph at 31°Out: 90.3 mph at -14°Out: 81.6 mph at 35°Single: 100.6 mph at 10°Single: 81.7 mph at 6°Out: 76.3 mph at 34°Out: 82.4 mph at -4°Out: 66.2 mph at -21°Out: 85.9 mph at 37°Out: 90.9 mph at 18°Single: 96.1 mph at 7°Out: 71.9 mph at 32°Out: 90.8 mph at -3°Out: 89.5 mph at -11°Single: 65.8 mph at 37°Out: 96.0 mph at 25°Double: 99.2 mph at 12°Single: 91.6 mph at -8°Out: 72.5 mph at 6°Home run: 96.5 mph at 33°Single: 74.4 mph at 20°Out: 92.9 mph at 22°Out: 81.4 mph at 42°Out: 90.8 mph at -7°Out: 79.4 mph at 14°Single: 81.4 mph at 12°Out: 80.1 mph at 52°
18% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit74.3%70.7%+3.6
2+ total bases41.1%37.3%+3.8
Home run4.0%3.5%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+1.6
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+1.9
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Steven Kwan against each of Michael Wacha's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.2+6″ / +18″.391.3584.6%15.5%71Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup27%80.6+13″ / +7″.311.2789.8%28.0%10Hits these better than most
Cutter14%89.6-2″ / +10″.409.3765.5%17.2%35Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sinker13%93.1+12″ / +15″.396.3634.6%15.9%67Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball10%75.4-10″ / -12″.347.3147.3%25.0%3Hits these better than most (thin: mostly his wider profile)
Slider8%84.6-3″ / +3″.385.3527.8%26.5%22Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Steven Kwan · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G310.600.600.600.540.5020.0%0.0%0.0%86.697.00.0%10.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1136.419.500.581.486.4185.6%13.9%2.1%84.199.20.0%17.9%46.4%
Last 30 G2683.382.434.500.422.3577.2%8.4%1.5%84.6102.21.5%17.6%44.1%
90 days70221.363.439.466.417.3578.1%12.2%4.3%83.5102.20.6%11.6%45.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 173 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 32%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G312.200.333.200.267.34616.7%16.7%8.3%89.7100.60.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1232.250.344.250.341.33412.5%12.5%8.7%82.0100.60.0%12.5%45.8%
Last 30 G2552.239.327.239.323.31513.5%11.5%7.9%80.7100.60.0%10.3%46.2%
90 days56105.287.404.310.374.34311.4%15.2%7.8%81.4100.60.0%9.2%44.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 76 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 29%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.400.455.400.391.4179.1%9.1%3.8%88.0100.60.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1568.339.426.424.416.3788.8%13.2%5.3%83.1100.60.0%15.4%46.2%
Last 30 G30135.328.393.402.383.3419.6%9.6%3.8%83.1102.20.9%15.0%44.9%
90 days75326.339.428.418.403.3539.2%13.2%5.4%82.9102.20.4%10.8%45.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 249 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 31%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 4%
Steven Kwan · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches97steady
wOBA / xwOBA.403 / .370running 33 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPSinker88.892.3-7.186Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper77.195.57.533Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.793.4-13.151Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.789.2-2.219Single
Sep 23RHPSinker91.664.825.800Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.885.234.020Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.997.018.477Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball78.582.948.008Out
Sep 22LHPFastball92.977.916.803Single
Sep 20RHPSlider87.582.519.843Single
Sep 20RHPChangeup91.589.320.475Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.493.312.836Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400010
Sep 23422000
Sep 22511012
Sep 20433000
Sep 19522000
Sep 18500021
Sep 16400010
Sep 15411010
Sep 14511010
Sep 13537110

Two strikes

Michael Wacha KC · RHPwith two strikes
Michael Wacha with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup27%35%21.2%18.2%18.6%
Fastball28%29%9.4%14.0%18.0%
Sinker13%16%7.7%11.3%16.9%
Slider8%7%43.8%21.2%21.0%
Curveball10%7%14.3%9.4%20.1%
Cutter14%6%7.7%19.2%17.9%
Other0%0%–100.0%21.7%
Steven Kwan bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Steven Kwan with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%22.6%41.0%
Whiff%9.8%21.3%
Contact%90.2%78.7%
Chase%35.7%39.6%
wOBA.293.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes8.3%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.380
K%9.7%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%3.2%
Barrel%0.7%
Hard-hit%10.0%
Avg EV83.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

217 PA
wOBA.412
xwOBA vs this mix.354against pitches like his
RV/1001.43
Hard-hit%10.8%
K%9.5%
BB%13.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael WachaRHP · KC vs CLE
4.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 24.9 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 37.7%38%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.5%16%56 strikeouts: 11.9%12%67 strikeouts: 7.3%7%78 strikeouts: 4.0%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.3%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%9.3%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff88
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%9293.27.2%
Changeup27%9480.614.2%
Cutter14%9089.87.9%
Sinker13%8193.24.1%
Curveball10%6875.66.8%
Slider8%8184.514.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2011419%11%27%.350
Sep 15998%5%38%.346
Sep 89317%7%13%.229

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael Wacha KC · RHPvsCLE lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Steven Kwan: every projection we've made →