MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 1Jeremy Peña
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.355wOBA vs RHP.312xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .283 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .370 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .267 vs league .252 (hitter's edge).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .341 vs league .326 (hitter's edge).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .364 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jeremy Peña's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jeremy Peña's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.4 mph at 36°Out: 69.9 mph at 65°Single: 86.9 mph at 16°Out: 68.4 mph at 79°Out: 105.2 mph at 2°Single: 94.4 mph at -3°Out: 94.0 mph at 2°Out: 78.3 mph at -5°Single: 91.5 mph at 17°Triple: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 96.1 mph at 27°Out: 78.6 mph at 37°Out: 69.6 mph at 70°Out: 89.2 mph at 24°Out: 88.4 mph at 7°Single: 87.4 mph at -23°Home run: 103.9 mph at 35°Single: 106.8 mph at 7°Single: 74.9 mph at 26°Out: 84.1 mph at 55°Double: 102.5 mph at 19°Single: 107.7 mph at 11°Home run: 96.7 mph at 30°Home run: 107.3 mph at 28°Out: 60.9 mph at 31°Out: 89.0 mph at 67°Out: 41.2 mph at -7°Single: 99.1 mph at 15°Single: 89.6 mph at -1°Out: 96.5 mph at 36°Single: 107.4 mph at 12°Out: 72.8 mph at -32°Double: 102.4 mph at 20°Out: 89.6 mph at -3°Double: 106.6 mph at 17°Out: 84.6 mph at 48°Out: 106.7 mph at 16°Out: 93.0 mph at 26°Out: 79.5 mph at 38°Out: 71.7 mph at -15°
38% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.8%66.2%+2.6
2+ total bases43.7%40.0%+3.8
Home run16.8%13.7%+3.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+3.4
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jeremy Peña against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.283.26946.9%32.7%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.370.35518.2%17.0%57About league average vs these
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.267.25239.8%31.3%4Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.341.32625.4%22.9%34About league average vs these
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.364.34912.2%11.1%61About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jeremy Peña · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.188.235.312.241.24841.2%0.0%42.4%85.0105.711.1%22.2%22.2%
Last 15 G1545.262.311.571.371.33537.8%2.2%35.6%87.9107.712.0%40.0%44.0%
Last 30 G3094.216.266.455.317.28637.2%3.2%38.0%87.4107.711.3%35.8%37.7%
90 days60205.268.302.531.363.31430.2%2.4%33.0%89.4107.79.8%42.4%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.167.167.167.150.27633.3%0.0%28.6%90.096.10.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1020.300.300.350.288.26325.0%0.0%25.6%91.1107.40.0%33.3%40.0%
Last 30 G1733.333.333.455.344.34227.3%0.0%27.8%92.4107.48.3%37.5%45.8%
90 days3770.246.300.323.281.28128.6%5.7%30.7%90.2107.44.4%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.182.217.273.217.25539.1%0.0%38.3%86.5105.77.7%23.1%30.8%
Last 15 G1565.274.308.500.345.31333.8%1.5%32.3%89.1107.77.5%37.5%42.5%
Last 30 G30127.248.283.455.324.30134.6%2.4%35.2%89.0107.710.4%36.4%40.3%
90 days62275.263.302.479.342.30629.8%3.3%32.4%89.6107.78.5%40.1%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 177 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
Jeremy Peña · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches28trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.341 / .311running 30 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider86.386.436.015Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.069.965.007Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.086.916.909Single
Sep 24RHPFastball94.468.479.005Out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.3105.22.498Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider86.494.4-3.274Single
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.394.02.431Force out
Sep 20LHPCurveball76.578.3-5.098Out
Sep 20LHPCutter84.291.517.678Single
Sep 19RHPSlider86.8105.7241.727Triple
Sep 19LHPSlider85.196.127.451Out
Sep 18RHPSlider85.478.637.045Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511001
Sep 22511002
Sep 20511002
Sep 19413002
Sep 18400002
Sep 17525101
Sep 16434000
Sep 15439201
Sep 13200001
Sep 12400012

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Jeremy Peña bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jeremy Peña with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.3%42.4%
Whiff%30.9%22.2%
Contact%69.1%77.8%
Chase%44.1%39.8%
wOBA.230.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.5%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.349
K%28.4%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%17.2%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%26.5%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

203 PA
wOBA.355
xwOBA vs this mix.312against pitches like his
RV/1000.61
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%29.3%
BB%3.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jeremy Peña: every projection we've made →