MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 1Jeremy Peña
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.353wOBA vs RHP.311xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.9projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 95.9 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .357 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 32%Sweeper: 29% usage, 86.3 mph, -12.1″ arm side, +1.8″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .280 vs league .271 (about even).Sweeper 29%Changeup: 17% usage, 89.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, -0.1″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .288 vs league .278 (about even).Changeup 17%Cutter: 14% usage, 92.7 mph, +0.8″ arm side, +7.8″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .340 vs league .330 (about even).Cutter 14%Sinker: 4% usage, 94.7 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Jeremy Peña: wOBA .356 vs league .346 (about even).Sinker 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jeremy Peña's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jeremy Peña's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.5 mph at 27°Out: 98.0 mph at 18°Out: 106.2 mph at -8°Out: 73.2 mph at -21°Out: 86.4 mph at 36°Out: 69.9 mph at 65°Single: 86.9 mph at 16°Out: 68.4 mph at 79°Out: 105.2 mph at 2°Single: 94.4 mph at -3°Out: 94.0 mph at 2°Out: 78.3 mph at -5°Single: 91.5 mph at 17°Triple: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 96.1 mph at 27°Out: 78.6 mph at 37°Out: 69.6 mph at 70°Out: 89.2 mph at 24°Out: 88.4 mph at 7°Single: 87.4 mph at -23°Home run: 103.9 mph at 35°Single: 106.8 mph at 7°Single: 74.9 mph at 26°Out: 84.1 mph at 55°Double: 102.5 mph at 19°Single: 107.7 mph at 11°Home run: 96.7 mph at 30°Home run: 107.3 mph at 28°Out: 60.9 mph at 31°Out: 89.0 mph at 67°Out: 41.2 mph at -7°Single: 99.1 mph at 15°Single: 89.6 mph at -1°Out: 96.5 mph at 36°Single: 107.4 mph at 12°Out: 72.8 mph at -32°Double: 102.4 mph at 20°Out: 89.6 mph at -3°Double: 106.6 mph at 17°Out: 84.6 mph at 48°
40% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.1%65.0%+2.1
2+ total bases43.0%40.4%+2.5
Home run14.7%13.5%+1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+3.4
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+2.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jeremy Peña hits
Where they meet

.279 xwOBA for Jeremy Peña in the spots Jack Perkins throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .308 (-29 points). His best spot against righties is middle-right, and Jack Perkins puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jack Perkins · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing7%14% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing14%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%33% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 51% per swing33%
All · 438 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%58% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters58%
Sweeper · 137 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%25% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters25%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 114 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%16% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters16%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%25% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters25%
Cutter · 80 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Sinker · 56 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters12%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%10% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters10%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%45% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters45%
Changeup · 42 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jeremy Peña · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .140 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.217xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .186 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.267xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .324 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.289xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .387 on 12 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.365xwOBA .532 shrunk (raw .649 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 35 pitches seen.532xwOBA .499 shrunk (raw .633 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 37 pitches seen.499xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .306 on 16 PA) · league .308 · 41 pitches seen.307xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .442 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 45 pitches seen.398xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .295 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 49 pitches seen.294xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .305 on 21 PA) · league .377 · 74 pitches seen.331xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .262 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 49 pitches seen.268xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .390 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 59 pitches seen.314xwOBA .141 shrunk (raw .110 on 51 PA) · league .274 · 230 pitches seen.141
vs RHP · 722 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 22%12%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 19%29%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 11%12%Whiff 23% of 35 swings · league 14%23%Whiff 32% of 34 swings · league 13%32%Whiff 32% of 31 swings · league 17%32%Whiff 27% of 34 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 24%35%Whiff 19% of 31 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 69% of 103 swings · league 49%69%
vs RHP · 722 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 62%77%Swings at 85% of 26 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 66%74%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 77% of 35 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 68% of 37 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 85% of 41 pitches · league 65%85%Swings at 76% of 45 pitches · league 68%76%Swings at 63% of 49 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 46% of 74 pitches · league 24%46%Swings at 41% of 49 pitches · league 34%41%Swings at 53% of 59 pitches · league 40%53%Swings at 45% of 230 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 722 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jeremy Peña against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%95.9+10″ / +14″.357.34612.8%17.3%549About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper29%86.3-12″ / +2″.280.27139.7%34.4%352About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup17%89.5+13″ / -0″.288.27841.5%33.7%46About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter14%92.7+1″ / +8″.340.33019.9%24.1%382About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker4%94.7+16″ / +9″.356.3469.6%11.6%485About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jeremy Peña · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.385.293.29742.9%0.0%52.0%88.1105.714.3%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1544.262.295.571.364.32638.6%2.3%37.2%87.9107.712.0%40.0%44.0%
Last 30 G3094.216.266.455.317.28637.2%3.2%38.2%87.4107.711.3%35.8%37.7%
90 days60204.264.299.528.361.31130.4%2.5%33.0%89.4107.79.9%42.7%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.100.100.100.090.25220.0%0.0%26.1%90.3106.20.0%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1021.286.286.333.274.27623.8%0.0%25.5%92.8107.40.0%43.8%43.8%
Last 30 G1837.297.297.405.307.32824.3%0.0%27.2%92.2107.47.1%39.3%46.4%
90 days3771.212.268.288.252.27928.2%5.6%30.8%90.3107.44.3%34.8%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.174.208.261.208.27933.3%0.0%39.6%89.3106.26.7%33.3%40.0%
Last 15 G1565.270.292.492.335.31033.8%1.5%33.1%89.8107.77.3%41.5%43.9%
Last 30 G30131.240.275.440.314.29833.6%2.3%34.9%89.0107.79.9%37.0%40.7%
90 days62275.251.291.467.332.30329.8%3.3%32.5%89.6107.78.5%40.7%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 177 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 24%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 11%
Jeremy Peña · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches7trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.335 / .307running 28 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup82.385.527.069Out
Sep 25LHPChangeup81.998.018.408Out
Sep 25LHPFastball96.6106.2-8.335Double play
Sep 25LHPFastball90.773.2-21.050Out
Sep 24RHPSlider86.386.436.015Out
Sep 24RHPCutter90.069.965.007Out
Sep 24RHPFastball98.086.916.909Single
Sep 24RHPFastball94.468.479.005Out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.3105.22.498Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider86.494.4-3.274Single
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.394.02.431Force out
Sep 20LHPCurveball76.578.3-5.098Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500001
Sep 24511001
Sep 22511002
Sep 20511002
Sep 19413002
Sep 18400002
Sep 17525101
Sep 16434000
Sep 15439201
Sep 13200001

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%20.7%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.3%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.4%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.4%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%18.7%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%17.7%
Other1%0%–0.0%17.9%
Jeremy Peña bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jeremy Peña with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.5%43.3%
Whiff%26.6%23.5%
Contact%73.4%76.5%
Chase%41.5%39.4%
wOBA.228.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.4%26.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.345
K%28.3%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%17.2%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

204 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.311against pitches like his
RV/1000.56
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%29.6%
BB%3.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU6 days' rest
4.9projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 28.4%28%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.1%14%67 strikeouts: 9.9%10%78 strikeouts: 6.1%6%89+ strikeouts: 6.2%6%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 54% (red bars) · under: 46%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jeremy Peña: every projection we've made →