MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 5Yainer Diaz
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.360wOBA vs RHP.334xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .281 vs league .269 (about even).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .368 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .265 vs league .252 (about even).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .338 vs league .326 (about even).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Yainer Diaz: wOBA .362 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yainer Diaz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yainer Diaz's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 76.9 mph at 64°Out: 84.9 mph at 12°Out: 105.8 mph at 14°Home run: 99.5 mph at 31°Out: 70.5 mph at 4°Triple: 101.6 mph at 17°Out: 67.4 mph at 39°Single: 89.5 mph at 11°Single: 100.6 mph at 14°Out: 94.3 mph at 2°Out: 103.8 mph at 26°Out: 82.5 mph at -13°Single: 87.2 mph at -17°Home run: 102.5 mph at 25°Out: 77.1 mph at -4°Out: 98.5 mph at -13°Out: 58.7 mph at -33°Double: 108.0 mph at 13°Out: 103.8 mph at 8°Out: 78.5 mph at 36°Single: 98.3 mph at -4°Out: 84.6 mph at 41°Out: 76.0 mph at -23°Out: 89.4 mph at 61°Out: 94.6 mph at 3°Single: 88.7 mph at 14°Home run: 104.9 mph at 20°Out: 101.3 mph at 20°Out: 81.7 mph at 2°Out: 86.6 mph at 25°Single: 99.4 mph at -3°Out: 94.2 mph at 61°Single: 96.5 mph at -4°Single: 81.9 mph at -10°Single: 102.4 mph at -23°Out: 83.6 mph at 4°Single: 91.0 mph at 7°Out: 100.7 mph at 2°Single: 106.8 mph at 3°Double: 109.1 mph at 17°
45% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit71.1%68.3%+2.9
2+ total bases47.0%43.0%+4.0
Home run16.5%13.4%+3.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+2.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+3.4
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Yainer Diaz against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.281.26924.2%32.7%27About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.368.35514.2%17.0%39About league average vs these
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.265.25225.5%31.3%6Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.338.32619.0%22.9%28About league average vs these
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.362.3498.9%11.1%35About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yainer Diaz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.222.222.500.300.42516.7%0.0%22.2%88.9105.813.3%46.7%53.3%
Last 15 G1543.300.349.500.367.33518.6%4.7%20.8%89.7105.89.4%40.6%40.6%
Last 30 G3084.312.345.512.381.30917.9%3.6%21.2%91.2107.64.6%44.6%30.8%
90 days56162.290.321.497.366.34214.2%3.1%18.1%89.7110.36.1%44.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 22%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.750.7501.7501.038.5860.0%0.0%37.5%95.0108.025.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G614.500.500.857.579.3940.0%0.0%16.7%97.0109.114.3%57.1%21.4%
Last 30 G1324.435.458.826.540.37412.5%0.0%21.4%95.0109.120.0%55.0%30.0%
90 days3054.314.352.510.372.27722.2%3.7%22.9%91.2109.110.3%43.6%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 39 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 23%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.318.318.727.434.45413.6%0.0%25.7%90.2108.015.8%47.4%52.6%
Last 15 G1557.352.386.593.419.35014.0%3.5%19.8%91.9109.110.9%45.7%34.8%
Last 30 G30108.340.370.583.416.32316.7%2.8%21.2%92.1109.18.2%47.1%30.6%
90 days58216.296.329.500.367.32616.2%3.2%19.4%90.1110.37.1%44.1%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 170 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 22%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 9%
Yainer Diaz · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .344running 27 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.376.964.008Out
Sep 24RHPSinker97.984.912.581Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.6105.814.740Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter86.899.531.717Home run
Sep 23RHPSplitter88.370.54.130Out
Sep 23RHPSinker89.9101.617.459Triple
Sep 23RHPSlider90.067.439.499Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.889.511.606Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper79.8100.614.811Single
Sep 22RHPCutter92.594.32.431Force out
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.9103.8261.605Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup81.282.5-13.086Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23527100
Sep 22522001
Sep 20425100
Sep 19412000
Sep 18100001
Sep 17411000
Sep 16425100
Sep 15300000
Sep 13400012

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Yainer Diaz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yainer Diaz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.7%42.4%
Whiff%22.3%22.2%
Contact%77.7%77.8%
Chase%46.9%39.8%
wOBA.229.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.7%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.345
K%16.5%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%33.9%
Avg EV90.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

160 PA
wOBA.360
xwOBA vs this mix.334against pitches like his
RV/1001.51
Hard-hit%34.6%
K%15.4%
BB%3.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yainer Diaz: every projection we've made →