MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 2Yordan Alvarez
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.473wOBA vs RHP.418xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .367 vs league .317 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .406 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .313 vs league .263 (hitter's edge).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .416 vs league .366 (hitter's edge).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .403 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yordan Alvarez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yordan Alvarez's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.3 mph at 18°Out: 84.7 mph at 65°Single: 104.6 mph at 16°Double: 107.3 mph at 7°Out: 97.6 mph at 55°Single: 100.0 mph at -17°Out: 77.6 mph at 33°Out: 83.4 mph at 4°Out: 107.5 mph at 20°Single: 101.9 mph at -3°Home run: 109.5 mph at 25°Single: 70.3 mph at 35°Out: 101.4 mph at 3°Single: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Single: 104.3 mph at -5°Out: 101.0 mph at -14°Out: 95.5 mph at 34°Out: 92.8 mph at -4°Out: 94.3 mph at 48°Double: 60.9 mph at -11°Home run: 107.2 mph at 37°Single: 64.2 mph at 24°Out: 97.2 mph at -33°Out: 97.6 mph at 53°Out: 107.7 mph at -10°Out: 91.2 mph at 26°Double: 110.7 mph at 15°Home run: 100.3 mph at 30°Out: 98.2 mph at 42°Out: 99.6 mph at -24°Double: 96.4 mph at 23°Out: 91.2 mph at 78°Out: 88.6 mph at 26°Single: 78.6 mph at 17°Out: 59.5 mph at -45°Out: 69.8 mph at -29°Out: 105.2 mph at 33°Out: 107.4 mph at -6°Out: 72.6 mph at -8°
60% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.8%66.0%+4.8
2+ total bases51.1%44.5%+6.7
Home run23.8%17.6%+6.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+2.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+3.9
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+1.8
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+3.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Yordan Alvarez against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.367.31723.9%25.5%13Hits these better than most
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.406.35511.9%16.4%68Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.313.26320.2%28.3%23Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.416.36612.2%17.2%37Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.403.3529.3%13.3%55Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yordan Alvarez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.429.529.714.541.4585.9%17.6%9.4%97.4109.57.7%69.2%23.1%
Last 15 G1546.306.457.639.469.42617.4%21.7%19.5%92.9110.717.9%57.1%32.1%
Last 30 G3093.309.484.574.468.43818.3%22.6%15.3%93.4113.411.5%55.8%38.5%
90 days70236.346.483.654.496.46217.4%19.1%16.7%95.2118.515.2%58.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.333.300.4780.0%0.0%25.0%93.0107.516.7%66.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1119.278.316.500.353.33210.5%5.3%13.9%93.9109.96.2%62.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1934.303.324.515.361.32611.8%2.9%13.8%93.5109.96.9%55.2%27.6%
90 days4481.239.309.380.314.33916.0%9.9%19.3%92.0109.98.3%45.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 18%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.400.478.600.475.4644.3%13.0%13.6%96.0109.510.5%68.4%21.1%
Last 15 G1565.296.415.593.435.39915.4%16.9%17.8%93.3110.713.6%59.1%29.5%
Last 30 G30127.307.441.554.438.40716.5%17.3%14.9%93.4113.49.9%55.6%34.6%
90 days72317.316.438.578.449.43017.0%16.7%17.4%94.2118.513.2%54.6%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 10%
Yordan Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.438 / .432results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.598.318.408Out
Sep 24RHPFastball99.384.765.012Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.7104.616.641Single
Sep 23RHPFastball97.1107.37.585Double
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.397.655.008Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3100.0-17.161Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper90.377.633.085Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.083.44.221Force out
Sep 22LHPChangeup90.1107.5201.249Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.9101.9-3.346Single
Sep 22RHPSlider87.2109.5252.007Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.770.335.652Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511011
Sep 23523010
Sep 22525110
Sep 20422000
Sep 19411000
Sep 18412020
Sep 17425100
Sep 16412001
Sep 15414120
Sep 13200011

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Yordan Alvarez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yordan Alvarez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.2%41.0%
Whiff%20.7%21.3%
Contact%79.3%78.7%
Chase%41.6%39.6%
wOBA.291.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.1%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.418
K%17.3%
BB%16.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%35.0%
Avg EV94.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

236 PA
wOBA.473
xwOBA vs this mix.418against pitches like his
RV/1002.70
Hard-hit%34.9%
K%17.9%
BB%16.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yordan Alvarez: every projection we've made →