MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 3Dominic Canzone
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedHot
.306wOBA vs RHP.319xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .353 vs league .362 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .333 vs league .342 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .282 vs league .290 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Dominic Canzone: wOBA .342 vs league .350 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dominic Canzone's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dominic Canzone's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 80.5 mph at -48°Out: 70.7 mph at -22°Out: 91.5 mph at 30°Single: 112.0 mph at 17°Single: 98.2 mph at 16°Out: 75.8 mph at -13°Out: 97.6 mph at -2°Out: 82.0 mph at 43°Single: 72.1 mph at 32°Out: 76.3 mph at 32°Out: 87.1 mph at 82°Out: 88.3 mph at -3°Single: 99.2 mph at 0°Double: 110.5 mph at 11°Single: 104.2 mph at 16°Out: 91.4 mph at 30°Out: 99.1 mph at 20°Double: 102.7 mph at 27°Out: 83.9 mph at 24°Out: 91.3 mph at 38°Out: 54.8 mph at -4°Single: 87.1 mph at -6°Out: 102.9 mph at -1°Triple: 102.8 mph at 27°Out: 85.9 mph at 58°Out: 106.8 mph at 1°Out: 65.8 mph at -46°Out: 70.4 mph at -72°Single: 104.8 mph at 6°Out: 96.6 mph at 29°Out: 83.2 mph at 68°Double: 101.4 mph at 22°Out: 90.5 mph at 21°Single: 83.3 mph at 18°Out: 98.1 mph at -26°Home run: 99.2 mph at 27°Triple: 104.1 mph at 24°Out: 105.9 mph at -5°Single: 90.0 mph at 13°Out: 78.8 mph at 86°
45% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.5%66.2%+0.2
2+ total bases40.1%39.3%+0.9
Home run17.4%14.9%+2.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.6
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Dominic Canzone against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.353.36218.0%18.3%28About league average vs these
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.333.34233.7%27.4%13About league average vs these
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.282.29026.5%25.8%30About league average vs these
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.342.35013.3%13.5%40About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dominic Canzone · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.286.250.27620.0%6.7%26.9%92.4112.09.1%36.4%45.5%
Last 15 G1335.265.286.412.301.31820.0%2.9%27.1%91.6112.011.1%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G2876.233.263.411.294.34025.0%3.9%24.6%93.1112.813.2%45.3%39.6%
90 days68200.238.280.407.305.32322.5%5.5%25.1%90.9112.88.4%42.0%33.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.600.667.600.567.4210.0%16.7%27.3%84.2104.20.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1331.346.419.577.435.37516.1%12.9%19.2%90.1106.313.6%45.5%45.5%
Last 30 G2457.286.368.449.363.33815.8%10.5%21.3%87.3106.37.3%39.0%36.6%
90 days48110.280.382.484.381.36119.1%12.7%20.4%87.5108.48.2%41.1%32.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.316.381.368.340.31714.3%9.5%27.0%89.8112.06.2%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1566.300.348.483.363.34418.2%7.6%23.4%90.9112.012.2%44.9%44.9%
Last 30 G30133.254.308.426.324.33921.1%6.8%23.3%90.6112.810.6%42.6%38.3%
90 days71310.252.316.433.332.33621.3%8.1%23.5%89.8112.88.3%41.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 8%
Dominic Canzone · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating75Above average
Last 100 pitches86trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.328 / .342results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.680.5-48.117Out
Sep 24LHPSlider79.870.7-22.035Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball82.891.530.076Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.8112.0171.013Single
Sep 23LHPCutter84.898.216.628Single
Sep 23LHPSinker95.775.8-13.067Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.297.6-2.342Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.882.043.012Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.472.132.509Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.776.332.185Out
Sep 22RHPSlider85.087.182.003Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.688.3-3.216Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400001
Sep 23522000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20423001
Sep 19411020
Sep 18512010
Sep 16511020
Sep 15413000
Sep 14411002
Sep 13512001

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Dominic Canzone bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dominic Canzone with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.4%41.0%
Whiff%21.4%21.3%
Contact%78.6%78.7%
Chase%42.5%39.6%
wOBA.230.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.3%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.340
K%21.5%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%29.0%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

195 PA
wOBA.306
xwOBA vs this mix.319against pitches like his
RV/100-0.43
Hard-hit%28.8%
K%22.5%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dominic Canzone: every projection we've made →