MLBengine v14
← LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SEA · batting 5Julio Rodríguez
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerHot
.333wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · LAARyan Johnson
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.2projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Johnson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 40% usage, 89.6 mph, -1.9″ arm side, +9.2″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .319 vs league .314 (about even).Cutter 40%Sweeper: 25% usage, 81.0 mph, -7.6″ arm side, +6.8″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .302 vs league .297 (about even).Sweeper 25%Splitter: 20% usage, 84.7 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .300 vs league .295 (about even).Splitter 20%Sinker: 15% usage, 92.3 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Julio Rodríguez: wOBA .357 vs league .352 (about even).Sinker 15%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Julio Rodríguez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Julio Rodríguez's last 40 balls in playHit (18)Out (22)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.7 mph at -12°Single: 77.3 mph at 14°Home run: 109.2 mph at 25°Double: 103.9 mph at 17°Single: 81.7 mph at 6°Single: 34.5 mph at -37°Out: 78.4 mph at 64°Out: 102.2 mph at 35°Out: 92.2 mph at 42°Single: 102.6 mph at -2°Single: 87.0 mph at 11°Out: 99.9 mph at -14°Out: 101.6 mph at 6°Single: 90.8 mph at -51°Single: 62.2 mph at 41°Out: 67.0 mph at -16°Out: 103.4 mph at 40°Double: 87.8 mph at 3°Out: 74.7 mph at -8°Out: 81.1 mph at 38°Out: 93.9 mph at 67°Single: 97.7 mph at 0°Out: 104.6 mph at -25°Double: 93.5 mph at 21°Double: 111.4 mph at 10°Out: 101.9 mph at -2°Out: 93.5 mph at 24°Out: 103.1 mph at 21°Single: 103.2 mph at 13°Out: 88.4 mph at -42°Out: 81.0 mph at 5°Out: 102.8 mph at 7°Out: 79.3 mph at 79°Single: 94.9 mph at -2°Single: 100.0 mph at 1°Double: 93.3 mph at 22°Out: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 74.9 mph at 11°Single: 100.1 mph at -13°Out: 103.2 mph at -14°
45% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot45% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.8%64.9%-0.1
2+ total bases36.7%36.7%0.0
Home run13.2%12.4%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Julio Rodríguez against each of Ryan Johnson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter40%89.6-2″ / +9″.319.31421.5%24.7%34About league average vs these
Sweeper25%81.0-8″ / +7″.302.29729.0%28.0%26About league average vs these
Splitter20%84.7+14″ / +1″.300.29524.5%26.9%21About league average vs these
Sinker15%92.3+14″ / +6″.357.3528.6%10.7%47About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Julio Rodríguez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.533.562.867.606.4626.2%0.0%13.3%88.7109.214.3%42.9%21.4%
Last 15 G1339.342.359.605.410.36512.8%0.0%17.1%93.2112.49.1%51.5%21.2%
Last 30 G2880.260.288.455.330.30720.0%2.5%18.8%91.8112.48.2%49.2%23.0%
90 days63183.277.328.452.342.34219.1%6.0%22.0%90.1112.49.0%43.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 134 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.500.600.500.500.3890.0%20.0%0.0%83.8103.40.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1226.333.462.381.394.35619.2%19.2%14.9%93.3106.26.2%56.2%31.2%
Last 30 G2351.217.294.261.258.25533.3%9.8%29.7%91.5107.26.9%51.7%27.6%
90 days47103.215.291.280.272.30730.1%9.7%26.7%90.8109.96.5%46.8%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 26%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.526.571.789.581.4454.8%4.8%10.3%87.6109.211.1%38.9%22.2%
Last 15 G1565.339.400.525.404.36215.4%7.7%16.3%93.3112.48.2%53.1%24.5%
Last 30 G30131.244.290.382.302.28725.2%5.3%23.4%91.7112.47.8%50.0%24.4%
90 days66286.255.315.390.317.33023.1%7.3%23.8%90.3112.48.2%44.4%33.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 196 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 24%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
Julio Rodríguez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball97.094.7-12.183Out
Sep 24LHPSinker87.677.314.535Single
Sep 24RHPFastball96.5109.2252.007Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker93.1103.917.563Double
Sep 23RHPCutter93.681.76.351Single
Sep 23RHPSinker94.234.5-37.268Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.578.464.005Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper82.8102.235.891Out
Sep 22LHPSlider84.292.242.005Out
Sep 22RHPCutter86.4102.6-2.391Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.387.011.542Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper85.199.9-14.246Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24425101
Sep 23534010
Sep 22422000
Sep 20411000
Sep 19423000
Sep 18400001
Sep 16523011
Sep 15412001
Sep 14400012
Sep 13511001

Two strikes

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes
Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Cutter40%42%19.6%21.0%17.9%
Sweeper25%26%23.4%17.3%19.3%
Splitter20%21%15.8%12.7%19.0%
Sinker15%10%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Slider0%1%0.0%0.0%21.0%
Julio Rodríguez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Julio Rodríguez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.4%42.4%
Whiff%22.5%22.2%
Contact%77.5%77.8%
Chase%38.1%39.8%
wOBA.253.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.8%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.328
K%23.3%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%30.4%
Avg EV90.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

178 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.29
Hard-hit%30.8%
K%20.4%
BB%7.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA
4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 39.2%39%≤34 strikeouts: 19.3%19%45 strikeouts: 16.3%16%56 strikeouts: 11.5%12%67 strikeouts: 7.0%7%78 strikeouts: 3.7%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.0%3%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.1%
BB%9.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff92
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter40%11489.79.2%
Sweeper25%9481.215.1%
Splitter20%6384.710.6%
Sinker15%6492.50.5%
Slider0%9584.30.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209127%15%14%.318
Sep 159028%16%24%.286
Sep 910321%7%25%.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAA @ SEA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Julio Rodríguez: every projection we've made →